Lucky Loaiza?

Esteban Loaiza has been struggling, so maybe we should ask why.

Well, it’s pretty simple. He’s not striking guys out like he did last year. That wouldn’t be a problem if he weren’t walking guys and giving up a ton of gopher balls.

Here’s some stats from last year, compared to this year and his career numbers.

              K/BB     BB/9    HR     HR/9    ERA
2003      3.70       2.23      17       0.67      2.90
2004      1.85       2.82      19       1.34      4.79
CAR       2.29       2.54     197      1.10      4.60

Given that his K/BB, BB/9 innings and HR/9 rates area all worse than his career rates, Loaiza is pretty lucky to have an ERA under 5 as of this writing. That’s bad news for Sox fans counting on him to be part of a fearsome three at the top of the rotation.

The good news is that baring injury, Loaiza should at least come back down to his career levels – which won’t help his ERA, but should keep it from climbing higher.

It might just be that the cut fastball that helped Loaiza to a monster season last year just isn’t fooling hitters this year. And maybe he’s not getting it over for a strike. If that’s the case, he’ll need another new pitch if he ever hopes to approximate his last – and only – great season.