The beat goes on for the Southsiders

Since the last time your faithful narrator checked in, the White Sox finished off a sweep of the Blue Jays, dropped a couple bad losses to the Devil Rays of all teams, and ensured themselves at least a split with the AL East-leading Orioles by taking the first two games of a four-game set with the birds from Baltimore.

The Sox have now won seven straight at home and overall are 11-2 in their last 13 games. And for the most part, the basic formula has remained the same. Let the starter work deep into the game, let the offense scratch out a few runs and then let the bullpen nail it down.

The only time the bullpen didn't nail it down was in the 7-6 loss to the Devil Rays. But that by itself hardly constitutes a meltdown. In fact, since the last time I've written about it, the bullpen has remained rock-solid.

Dustin Hermanson has yet to allow a run in 18 1/3 innings and appears to have emerged as the de facto closer. But as good as he's been with a .76 WHIP, Cliff Politte has been even better with a .68 WHIP and 17 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings. Politte's ERA now stands at 1.35.

Damaso Marte has also been pitching well with a 1.93 ERA, despite a 1.71 WHIP. He's been walking a tightrope with 12 walks in 14 innings, but he's helped bail himself out with 16 strikeouts. Something will have to give, though. Either Marte tops walking guys or his ERA will skyrocket.

The other two big pieces -- Shingo Takatsu and Luis Vizcaino are both scuffling with ERAs of 7.00 or higher. But there are plenty of reasons to like the work they've been giving the Sox lately.
Both survived disasterous outings against Cleveland on April 7. In fact, of the 20 earned runs the pair has given up this season, nine were against the Tribe that afternoon. That must hurt, especially for Vizcaino, who was left hung out to dry because he was the last man in the bullpen.

I know it's a slippery slope when you begin saying things like "without such-and-such outings, pitcher X has X.XX ERA." But without the Cleveland game, Takatsu's ERA is 3.38 and Vizcaino's is 4.60.

Takatsu has struck out 12 men per 9IP while walking a handful and allowing his share of hits. Vizcaino has not been striking guys out (5.63 K/9), but has avoided home runs (1 allowed this year). So when you look at their peripherals, those adjusted ERAs sound about right for what they're getting done on the mound. Not enough to qualify them as studs, but even with the ass-busting ERAs they're still touting, they haven't been bad options for the Sox.

I guess the other shoe could still drop, as we're only a month and a half into the season. Small sample sizes are still an issue, but short of overuse, even when the clock strikes mid-season, it's hard to see the whole bullpen turning into a collection of pitching pumpkins.

So lets talk about last night's game.

GAME NOTES:

Taking the ball:
Mark Buehrle tossed another eight innings last night, putting him on pace to throw more than 270 innings. The last Sox pitcher to throw more than 250 innings in a season was Alex Fernandez, who had 258 in 1996. The last time a White Sox pitcher tossed more than 270 innings was 1975, when Jim Kaat and Wilbur Wood both crushed that mark with 303 2/3 and 293 1/3 innings, respectively.
There's still a lot of season left, and I'd be surprised if Buehrle managed to throw that many innings. But I think at this point we can also be surprised if he doesn't throw more than 220.

Something else interesting of note is that out of the last 10 non-strike-shortened seasons, the only years the White Sox didn't have a left-handed pitcher toss 200 innings were 2000, when Mike Sirotka managed only 197 because of injuries down the stretch, and in 1997, when Wilson Alvarez threw 145 before being traded to the Giants. Alvaraz still finished the year with 200+ innings.

Not out of the woods yet:
Paul Konerko went 2-for-3 and keyed Friday's Sox win with a broken-bat single that scored two runs in the seventh inning. It was his first multi-hit game since last weekend when he drilled two home runs against Toronto and only his second since a pair of hits against the Twins on April 19.
To read some of the game stories, it seems like some scribes are implying that the bloop hit was just what Konerko needs to, "get things going his way again." I don't really know how much more likely his is to go on a tear than he was after he broke through with a couple bombs against the Blue Jays, though. The hits just fall when they fall, you know?

There is one comforting fact in this slump. During Konerko's titanic nosedive of 2003, he wouldn't get his on-base percentage up above .300 for good until a 2-for-4 night against the Yankees on August 28. Part of that had to do with how far Paulie had fallen off early in the season, but it also had to do with a lousy approach at the plate. Konerko took a lot of pitches, but instead of drawing walks and getting on base even when the balls weren't falling right for him, he'd get into a pitcher's count and never seemed able to battle back.

This time it's been different. This season, while Konerko is still hovering around the Mendoza line with his .208 batting average, his OBP has not dipped below .300 since April 17. In fact, his OBP is still a tolerable .333. That's still not enough on-base production from your first baseman, but for as deep of a slump in which Konerko's been mired, you have to be pleased with that.

What's more, after his disasterous 2003, Konerko bounced back with a huge 2004 in which he drew a career-high 69 walks. This year he's on pace to receive 95 free passes. I think we can easily say that after the first slump, Konerko emerged as a better hitter.

So what does that mean for this year going foward? With nine home runs, he's hurting pitchers when they go after him. And he's taking his walks and not getting himself out on junk out of the strike zone. So I think the hits will eventually start falling and he could have a very big second half. I don't think Friday night was the beginning. I think 2003 was the beginning, and now it's just a matter of waiting for Konerko's luck with balls in play to start evening out.

Designated to do what?:
Willie Harris got the start at DH on Friday. It's not really that unusual. Teams, because of injury or just plain lousy rosters, have to play worse hitters at the spot all the time. And at least Harris is still batting over .300 with a nice .389 OPB. But it's still funny to say, "Now batting, the designated hitter, No. 1 Willie Harris."

Qutting time?:
Possible Hall-of-Famer Rafael Palmeiro has had a tremendous career, and in his prime -- which reached well into his 30s -- was considered one of the most dangerous left-handed hitters in baseball. He had it all with a good batting average, OBP and lots of power.
But right now, he is killing the Orioles.

As laughable as his third Gold Glove award in 1999 was (he played 135 games at DH that year), it was his great defensive rep that landed him that piece of hardward. Though it's been evident on plays like the one he made in the seventh inning Friday that he's been slipping in that department.
That would be ok if he were hitting better. Palmiero is batting .218, and because he's only slugging .333, pitchers don't feel threatened and are going right after him. As a result, he's only got a .295 on-base percentage and is on pace for only 51 walks. That total would be his lowest total since he was a 23-year-old wearing Cubbie blue.

Baltimore's offense has been motoring along, but can still ill afford to have Palmiero get old on them. From www.baseballreference.com, here are Raffy's OPS+ marks the last three years:

2001: 144
2002: 141
2003: 117
2004: 103

That's an alarming trend for a guy that blew out 40 candles on his birthday cake last September.
It's also a pretty good reason why the Orioles, who are already missing Sammy Sosa's bat, probably won't be able to hang with the Red Sox in the AL East race all summer.

On the rise:
That would be the Sox' team OBP, which is up to .325. That's still only good for 22nd in the majors, in between the Cubs (.326) and the Rangers (.323), but considering that only a couple weeks ago the Sox were at .312 and keeping company with teams like the Pirates and the Royals, that's a huge step forward.

So with Konerko and Jermaine Dye still struggling, how have the Sox elevated their OBP? Well in part because...

POW:
... Scott Posednik is sporting a .380 OBP after going 3-for-5 on Friday. The Pod person has already accepted 20 free passes, which is why his current OBP is better than rookie mark of .379, despite his batting average being off more than 50 points between those two seasons (.262 now, as opposed to .314 for Milwaukee in 2003).

Despite a base-stealing slump that saw him get gunned down 3-of-9 times last week, he's still got 18 steals on the season against only five caught stealing. It should also be mentioned that Posednik, along with Rowand and Dye, have been fantastic defenders in the Sox outfield. Posednik and Rowand are both among the top defenders at their position as measured by Zone Rating (Rowand is tops, Posednik is sixth).

Even if you don't like Zone Rating as a way to measure defense, it's hard to say that balls in play given up by the Sox pitching staff haven't been turned into outs.

So while it's still early, and while I was also an early doubter, I have to say that this Posednik experiment is working out pretty well... so far at least.

On deck:
Freddy Garcia will go against Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has been a strikeout machine, punching out 9.25 per 9 IP. He also walks a few. This should be a fun matchup to watch.

No New Posts

Due to a heavy workload, I won't be able to post again until this weekend. I apologize to anyone that's been looking for updates the last few days.

Chicago 5, Toronto 3

The White Sox survived a Timo Perez start in center field to pull out a 5-3 win at Toronto on Friday. A.J. Pierzynski's bloop single scored two runs to make a winner out of Orlando Hernandez, who pitched seven solid, if not spectacular innings.

I mentioned earlier this week that I secretly root for Timo Perez because he bunted for a base hit in a key bases-loaded situation during an important game against the Twins. Not only did he reach base on one of the best bunt plays I've seen the last few years, but he also drove in the tying run (nevermind that the Sox went on to lose the game 5-4).

But it goes deeper than that.

Like I'm sure other baseball fan's do, I pick and choose teams to root for in league opposite of my favorite team's league. Not the same team every year, but whichever squad I latch onto for some reason or another. In 2000 it was the New York Mets.

At first it had nothing to do with Perez. It had more to do with Robin Ventura, who was one of my favorites when he wore a Sox uniform. But there were a lot of interesting dudes on that team: Mike Piazza, who's always seemed like a swell guy whenever he's not coming across as a homophobe; Mr. Hawaiian Puch Benny Agbayani, the kind of career minor leaguer that's fun to root for; Rick Reed, who I like despite his would-be-union-busting past; Turk "99" Wendell; two guys named Bobby Jones; and Rickey Henderson, still in his prime when it came to referring to himself in the third person.

Even some guys I don't like to root for were having decent seasons, like "Operation Shutdown" Derek Bell (101 OPS+) and the mostly useless Lenny Harris (117 OPS+ in 132 at-bats over 76 games).

So I was rooting for the Mets, and when Perez came up and gave them an .809 OPS in 49 at-bats, it was neat. And then in the postseason, he batted .300 in the NLDS and NLCS combined. Especially in the NLCS against the Cardinals, it seemed like he scored every time he got on base. And I guess with seven hits, one walk and eight runs scored, he did.

Moreover, at the time we all thought he some 23-year old. He was young. He had potential. He had some upside for a Mets outfield that was mostly old and lousy.

If Timo's .643 OPS in 2001 didn't kill his prospectdom, then it was completely done in when he aged two extra years the winter before the 2002 season like a lot of other Latin American players.

So things have really stayed unchanged since then. He still sucks with the bat, and he's no great shakes with the glove either. Witness Friday night in Toronto:

In the second inning with two two Blue Jay runs in, Perez charged in and caught a Russ Adams fly ball for the second out. Rather than regroup and at least threaten a throw home, he flipped the ball to second base in an attempt to double off Alex Rios. Rios was safe and the slow-ass Greg Zaun scored from third. Darrin Jackson, calling the game on TV, said the run was likely to score anyway. But I don't think they send Zaun's not-so-fleet-feet if Perez come's up looking to throw home... even with his soft-tossing arm.

Then in the ninth inning, Adams made Perez his puppet again when he hit a ball to center that Perez charged to catch, but didn't come near enough to catching. The ball went past him for a double. It was a play that probably gets made by either Aaron Rowand or Scott Posednik. That might be an unfair comparison since both of those guys are superb defenders. But by comparison Timo looked bad.

So Perez isn't a good hitter and isn't a great defender. So why root for him?
Because he's the underdog. Because there's no reason root against him. Because I'm sure he'd be a nice enough guy if I ever meet him sometime.

Maybe if Timo were stealing time from some young, up-and-coming outfielder becasue of some manager's fetish for his "veteran presence" or some crap like that. That would be a good reason to hate him, to root for him to fail or wish he were somewhere else.

But Perez is the team's fourth outfielder. Once Frank Thomas comes back and Carl Everett
becomes a part-time DH/fourth outfielder, Perez will pretty much be the team's fifth outfielder. If the Sox had a young outfielder in that role, it would be a crime against that player's career.

Perez is now 30-years-old. His upside is gone, so what's left is a guy can at least handle all three outfield positions, has enough power to hit at least the once-in-a-while home run and can bunt well enough to more the runners and steal the occasional base hit on the play. And that's all you really need from a fifth outfielder.

GAME NOTES:

Up and down:
Sox bullpen on Friday: Seven batters faced, six sat down. Nice work again.

Mostly up:
Tadahito Iguchi stayed hot, raising his average to .340 with a 2-for-5 night. After being among the team's underachievers just a couple weeks ago, he's probably playing a bit over his head with that batting average. But his .772 OPS is probably the right neighborhood. In fact, it will probably get a little better as his power comes around.

Busting out?:
Paul Konerko broke an 0-for-26 batting slump with an eighth inning hit. He'd come around to score one of the winning runs.

Konerko is one of my favorite guys on the team, and has been one of the team's best players since coming to the Sox for Mike Cameron before the 1999 season. But compared against what he earns, which is $8.75 million this season, he doesn't provide the team with a tremendous amout of value.

For that reason, I was concerned that he might command an even bigger deal from the Sox as a free agent this winter. I don't know how likely he is to get a much bigger deal after this recent slide. I'm sure he'll rebound and have a nice overall season, but his recent streak brings back images of his prolonged slump to begin the 2003 season. It also cements his reputation for being proned to such slumps because of his high-maintenance mechanics at the plate.

After Paulie smacked 41 home runs last year, it was hard to convince some Sox fans that Konerko was overpaid. But with two bad starts in three years, it's a little easier to do that. I imagine it will also be harder for teams to open up their wallets next winter to hand over something like a 4-year, $40-million deal.

Lets just hope this doesn't end up like past free agent situations for the Sox.

POW:
In five trips to the plate, Posednik went 1-for-4 and walked once. That lifts his OBP to .376. That's not too shabby. Why didn't he get the nod in center? I know manager Ozzie Guillen has to keep Perez fresh enough at the position to be able to use him there once in a while, but if something were to happen to Rowand, I'd assume it would be Scotty because of his great range and speed. So doesn't he need an occasional start there?

On Deck:
It's already happening. Jon Garland allowed a run, but the Sox have scored six with home runs from Juan Uribe, Iguchi and Konerko. That's where the score stands after two innings.

Chicago 2, Royals 1

Fun game, but no post tonight. I'm getting behind on my real-world responsiblities. But I'll be back at it sometime Saturday morning.

White Sox 4, Royals 2

The White Sox took home a 4-2 win and became the first team in the majors to reach 20 wins on Wednesday despite their No. 2-through-5 hitters combining to go 1-for-14. Jermaine Dye picked up some of the slack in the six hole with a 2-for-3 night, while A.J. Pierzynski and Joe Crede clouted home runs from the seventh and eighth spots, respectively.

With only six hits and two walks, it’s probably not a game the Sox deserved to win, especially with starter Freddy Garcia walking a tightrope by allowing eight hits and two walks through 6 1/3 innings. But they all count, so they’ll take it.

Maybe the best thing the Royals have going for them is that first baseman Mike Sweeney went 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles and two RBIs, lifting his average to .321. He also leads the majors in doubles with 10.

It’s not the kind of “good thing” for the Royals in that they need him to play better to help them win games. It’s the kind of “good thing” where they need him to play better so they can ship him out of town.

Sweeney is owed $11 million this season, as well as each of the next two years. He’s also due a $1.5 million per year raise if he’s dealt anywhere. What looked like a good deal after 2002, when Sweeney signed for five years and $55 million, is now an albatross.

Because Sweeney has played below his .877 career OPS the last two seasons while also missing more than 50 games each year, he’s not considered a good risk for a contending team looking for long-term help. But if the Royals are resigned to paying off a chunk of the contract, how well Sweeney plays will help determine how much they’re on the hook for.

Putting on a Royals hat for a minute, I don’t think it would be a good idea for the Royals to pay a significant amount just to get rid of Sweeney. He wouldn’t bring much in the way of prospects, and given the Royals other 1B/DH options, they’re better off eating the money and leaving the guy that’s been the face of the franchise out there, even if it amounts to little more than a PR move.

But Royals owner David Glass probably doesn’t see it that way. If he could get by with paying half the contract and sticking league-minimum guys out there like Calvin Pickering, he’d rather do that because he’s still saving almost $20 million bucks over three years. And that’s the Wal-Mart way.

The Sox aren’t looking for a first baseman (imagine for a minute how ultra-Christian Sweeney would get along with Ozzie Guillen swearing in his face), so this really only effects them in that they might get to play an even worse Royals team later on this year.

GAME NOTES:

Why are we here again?:
Apparently, the only purpose Neal Cotts had in Wednesday’s win was to come on in the sixth inning and walk Ruben Gotay. After getting nobody out, he was relieved by Cliff Politte.

I haven’t written a word about Cotts in a while, and that’s because nobody has seen him since April 24. Since back-to-back bad outing against Cleveland raised his ERA to 8.10, he’s brought that back down to 3.86, despite a still scary WHIP of 1.71.

Nothing personal against Cotts, but I still don’t know why he’s with the Sox instead of at Charlotte. Is it really in his best interest to only get sporadic mop-up work? He’s on pace for only 42 innings this year.

More importantly for Sox fans, is it important to waste a roster spot on a guy that’s going to come in for a couple games, not pitch very well, and then not see action again for another week or so?

So once again, here’s a call to let Cotts learn his trade very fifth day for the Knights.

Closing the door:
Dustin Hermanson pitched 1 2/3 innings to pick up his fourth save. Nobody is using the expression “closer by committee,” at least not loudly, but that’s how it’s working out for the Sox. Shingo Takatsu has seven saves and Damaso Marte has one.

I could quibble with some of Guillen’s bullpen decisions, especially ones that involve brining a guy in for only one batter before rotating another guy in, but I think he does deserve some credit for being flexible.

GM Kenny Williams also deserves some credit, too, for giving Guillen a lot of good options. Consider:

-- It was back in spring training of 2002 that he picked up Marte from the Pirates for Matt Guerrier. At the time, some Sox fans complained Williams was giving away yet more pitching prospects to the Pirates (that deal came on the heels of what shall be called the Todd Ritchie Fiasco). Marte has since been signed to a cheap, long-term contract.

-- Politte was brought in before 2004 on a one-year deal with an option for this season. He pitched well and despite the fact that the Sox declined his option, Politte came back on another bargain-basement 1-year, $1 million deal.

-- Takatsu is making $2.5 million this year after making peanuts last year. Despite his 7.04 ERA in this young season, he’s still got a 2.83 career ERA and is 26-for-28 in save opportunities since coming Stateside.

-- Dustin Hermanson signed a 2-year, $5.5 million dollar deal that was ridiculed pretty roundly by baseball pundits. He has yet to be scored on in 13 innings this season.

It’s still early, and especially with relievers we’re talking about small samples sizes, but combined, that foursome has struck out 10.33 batters per 9 innings. So we know the ability is there.

Streaking:
Joe Crede has hit a mini-slump, getting only two hits in his last 16 at-bats, but his home run tonight was encouraging. Paul Konerko is now hitless in his last 22 trips to the dish.

Carl Everett cooled off with an 0-for-4 night, but Jermaine Dye teased us with the idea that he might just come out of his season-long slump with his strong night.

Timo Perez has been slumping since 2001. If not for 49 at-bats with an .802 OPS in 2000, we might call this a career-long slump. Or we might say he sucks.

POW:
Scott Posednik’s on-base percentage is back up to .359 with a hit and a walk in four trips to the plate. He also stole a base and is now 11-for-12 in that department.

A tangent on that though: The generally accepted break-even point for stealing bases is 80 percent, though I guess you could argue that it’s a few percentage points lower because it gets guys in motion and puts more pressure on the defense.

The Sox are now 30-for-40 in stolen bases on the season after three successful attempts on Wednesday, which means at 75 percent, they’re not quite to the point of being effective. But at least they’re not giving away runs.

Around Baseball:
Have the Yankees really given up 28 runs in three games to the Devil Rays? We knew the pitching was going to be so-so with Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting old, plus the high-dollar additions of one-year wonders Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright… but his is just getting ugly. UGLY. Even the fifth-best offense in baseball isn’t bailing that staff out. … The Brewers, once again my pick for surprise team of 2005, bounced the Cubs again tonight. The Cubs have lost four straight and are now looking up at the Brew Crew in the standings. … Barry Bonds out at least two more months. With the Giants playing only .500 ball without him, they’re probably screwed.

On Deck:
Jose Contreras goes against Zach Greinke. This will be fun to watch if for no other reason than the pitcher.

White Sox 5, Royals 4

Tadahito Iguchi hit his first home run of his major league career and Carl Everett drove home the tying and winning runs in the Sox’ 5-4 win against the Royals on Tuesday.

First of all, is there a worse team in baseball than the Royals?

Royals	RANK
Win-Loss	29
Pythagorean	28
Runs Scored	27
Runs Allowed	26

If not for Pittsburgh and Colorado, it would be a pretty clear case.

But, these are the games the Sox have to win. Much noise has been made about how the Sox have to beat the Twins if they’re going to win the AL Central. But how about beating the Tigers and Royals?

Lets go back to 2003, when the Sox finished four games behind the Twins:

TEAM	RECORD AGAINST
Twins	9-10
Royals	11-8
Tigers	11-8

Now, the Royals were having a surprising season, winning 83 games when most people thought they’d lose 90 going into the year. And the Twins did out-do the Sox by a game.

But only a .579 winning percentage against the Tigers? The 119-loss Tigers that had two in five of their last six to avoid baseball history’s top spot for modern futility?

The Tigers had a .421 winning percentage against the White Sox …. And a .245 winning percentage against everyone else. That’s three games the Sox gave back. Those wins could have made their last series with the Royals that season meaningful.

The larger point is, you have to beat the best teams in the league to prove you can play with them in the post season. But you don’t get to the postseason unless you can clean up against the lousy teams. Which the Sox didn’t do that year.

GAME NOTES:

What hot start?:
Paul Konerko went 0-for-3 and is in danger of his batting average slipping below .200. With his prolific homer output early this season, it’s not like he’s having a stretch as bad as his first half in 2003. But maybe we’re getting to the point where we can think about it.

Konerko’s a good player, but the Sox should be leery of signing him to a big-money, long-term deal.

Can still hit:
While most groaned at the acquisition of Carl Everett when Sox GM Kenny Williams picked him up for the second straight year, it hasn’t worked out badly for the team.

Everett’s .819 OPS is second on the team behind Iguchi’s .833 mark. That’s not great, but think about where the Sox would be without his bat. He’s also shown signs of heating up, with five of his seven walks on the season coming in just the last week. That mean’s he’s not slipping into any hacktasticaly bad habits.

My opinion is that the Sox still overpaid for him by giving up two pitching prospect (though marginal ones) and still taking on all of his salary. But not only has he helped them out so far this year, but his ability to play the outfield will give the Sox some flexibility when Frank Thomas comes back.

POW:
Scott Posednik’s on-base percentage dipped back to .352 after a 1-for-4 evening without any walks. The hit loomed large, however, as he scored the tying run. Not that that’s an excuse for his .619 OPS.

On Deck:
Freddy Garcia (2-1, 2,83) against Runelvys Hernandez (1-3, 5.06) and the Royals. Here’s to winning ugly against the bad teams.

Chicago 8, Detroit 0

Jon Garland just keeps winning after pitching is second straight shutout Sunday against Detroit. Garland gave up only four hits, struck out six and walked only one.

I don’t know that there’s anything else to say about it. After Sunday’s game, his ERA is a ridiculously low 1.38. His WHIP is a meager 0.79. His batting average against is a crazy-silly .133.

Now, even the most optimistic of Sox fans knows this won’t continue. But we’re all still curious as to whether this is just a hot start for Garland, or if he’s really turned the corner. I think we’ll just have to wait and see.

For what it’s worth, Garland’s season so far reminds me of the season Derek Lowe had with Boston in 2002. There are some parallels between the two, such as both being sinker balers, but beyond that their histories diverge a bit.

Lowe was 29 when he had his monster season, and before that he was primarily a reliever. In fact, he saved 42 games for the Red Sox in 2000. Meanwhile, Garland has been a mainstay in the Sox rotation since moving to that role full-time during the 2001 season.

Here’s a look at what Lowe did in April, and what Garland has done so far.

PLAYER	G	WL	ERA	BAA	WHIP	SO	BB	IP
Lowe	5	4-1	2.04	1.29	.70	22	9	35.3
Garland	5	5-0	1.38	1.33	.79	17	6	39

Both players benefited from insanely low BAAs. Lowe had an edge in striking guys out, but Garland is better in the walks department. But neither guys picked up a ton of punchouts.

This may not be very instructive, but it’s a fun comparison. There’s not really any way to glean what Garland will do based on what Lowe did (though he did finish the season with a 2.58 ERA with a .211 BAA).

Looking at Lowe, however, gives us an obvious example of how flaky batting average can be. When he was hit for .272 in 2003, his ERA jumped to 4.47. When his went all the way up to .299 last season, he was hammered to the tune of a 5.42 ERA.

Garland has been pretty similar in his career, though more consistent with the BAA.

YEAR	BAA	ERA
2000	.292	6.46
2001	.277	3.69
2002	.258	4.58
2003	.260	4.51
2004	.269	4.89
2005	.133	1.38

The only year that defies the correlation between BAA and ERA is 2001, but the difference there is that Garland came out of the bullpen in 19 of his 35 games.

So, pretty much all we know so far is that if Garland can keep from giving up hits, he’ll keep dominating. Big surprise, huh? But not likely. The BAA will go up, so will the ERA. But at least we can dream about a season like Derek Lowe had in '02.

GAME NOTES:

Back-to-Back:
Garland was the first Sox pitcher to throw back-to-back shutouts since Jack McDowell did it in 1991.

Sox fans all know McDowell was a good pitcher, and that he was an innings horse. Starting in 1990, Black Jack had inning totals of 205, 253.7, 260.7, 256.7, 181.7*, 217.7 and 192.0. From 1991 to 1993 he had complete game totals of 15, 13 and 10. He led the league in complete games three times in his career.

He pitched pretty badly for Cleveland that last season in the run of IP listed above, and after that he was pretty much washed up, never pitching more than 76 innings in his next three seasons with ERAs north of 5.00 each year. He was done by 30.

So are the Sox going to burn Jon Garland out? I don’t think they will, not like McDowell was.

I don’t have pitch count totals for McDowell, but what can you say about Garlands? In his five starts, he’s averaged fewer than 100 pitchers (98 to be exact). He had 116 pitches in his first shutout, but he needed only 107 to finish off the Tigers on Sunday. And that was with his six strikeouts.

That’s not to say it won’t happen, though. McDowell was the picture of pitching health, and who though he would break down at 29 after five seasons of taking the ball every fifth day.

Looks like another wait-and-see issue.

Timing is everything:
Timo Perez has only five hits, but has driven in eight runs. For a guy that would have a hard time hitting water if he fell out of a boat (.216 BA/.634 OPS through Monday), that’s pretty good.

Perez drove in three on a pair of hits Sunday, including his second home run.

I would give Perez credit for doing what he can with sporadic playing time, but he’s never hit outside of a half season with Norfolk (AAA Mets) in 2000 (and still only a .906 OPS).

He is what he is, though, and I can sort of understand the fascination with him after that bunt for a base hit he put down against Minnesota last year. You hardcore Sox fans know the one.

POW:
Scott Posednik went 1-for-4 with a walk to again modestly lift his OBP from .354 to .357. Now that he’s got 71 at-bats in the pipe, it’s probably a matter of streaks and slumps that raise and lower him significantly from here. Lets hope general suckitude doesn’t drag him back to last year’s level. That would be bad for the Sox.

On Deck:
Mark Buehrle (3-1, 3.89) will go against Brian Anderson (1-2, 7.54) and the Royals in a battle of left-handers. My mouth is watering thinking about the Sox facing Anderson, so imagine how the Pale Hose hitters feel.

Chicago 4, Detroit 3

Sox manager's Ozzie Guillen's small ball approach paid off for his team as the Sox were able to rally for three runs in the seventh inning of a 4-3 win against Detroit on Saturday.

After Aaron Rowand led off the inning by getting hit by a pitch, A.J. Pierzyinski and Joe Crede followed with singles, the later scoring Rowand from second and making the score 3-2. Still with no outs, Ozzie Guillen instructed Willie Harris to bunt. Harris was able to execute and moved noted non-speedsters Pierzynski and Crede to second and third. Pierzynski would score on a groundout by Scott Posednik and Tadahito Iguchi singled to center to score Crede. The Sox left the inning with a 4-3 lead.

Let me explain first that I'm all for the big inning. I'm a big proponent of Earl Weaver baseball. But lets face it, Harris wasn't going to hit a three-run home run. Outs are scarce, but here's why I think having Harris bunt was the right call:

Having Harris swing away meant the most likely outcome would have been:
1) A groundout that probably would have turned into a double play, creating two outs.
2) A soft fly ball that gets caught, and if it advances any runners, it's probably Pierzynski to third, leaving the double play in order
or
C) Harris strikes out.

One of those three things probably happens two out of three times.

And after that the Sox are counting on Posednik to drive in whoever is left on base? Please.

Guillen decided to give up one out to get two guys in scoring position. That gave the Sox two chances to drive in guys with a base hit, and at least one chance to drive a guy in on a groundout or a flyout to tie the game. And that's what happened. The Sox got a run despite Posednik's weak grounder, and then Iguchi picked up Crede on third with a base hit.

If the situation is different, say the score were 7-2 with Detroit in front earlier in the game, then you would probably want Harris to work the count, try to slap a hit or draw a walk. That would be dangerous too, because you'd still have a man on first base, and the ball Posednik followed with would have probably been double-play material, thus getting you only one run anyway. But that's a 1-in-3 chance you have to take when you need a bundle of runs.

In the seventh inning of Saturday's game, however, the Sox only needed one run to tie and another to take the lead. And it still let them get to the heart of their order... Carl Everett and Paul Konerko both got to bat in the inning.

In fact, it was the big ball hitters that were disapointing for the Sox in the seventh. Everett got on base, but then Konerko hit into a fielder's choice. Had there been only one out, it would have been a double play.

But the point here isn't that letting the big guys swing away is a bad idea. It's a good idea, and if it had been Everett or Konerko putting down the bunt, it would have been a ridiculous play. You need those guys to do what they're good at, which is draw walks and hit home runs. But even Barry Bonds, the most successful hitter in baseball and maybe the best hitter ever, is only "successful" half the time, and less than that when you account for the situation. Most good hitters are only sucessful one out of three times. And the best hitters in the game can still kill a rally by grounding into a double play.

The guys the Sox had coming up in the lineup -- Harris and Posednik -- have by no measure Bondsian prowess. They're not even "good" hitters. So Guillen was absolutely right to cash in the runs he knew he could get. I would agree that is really "smart ball."

GAME NOTES:

Take your base:
After being hit by 10 pitches last year, Crede was hit by his third of 2005 in the fifth inning. That doesn't count the incident in Oakland where he was hit but didn't get his base. I don't think Crede's penchant to attract baseballs with his ribs is the product of him leaning in with the express purpose of drawing the base -- a la Craig Biggio -- but rather a pruduct of his stiff batting posture.
Intentions aside, for a guy like Crede that only walks about 35 times a year, getting plunked by 10-15 pitches is a nice way for him to boost his value.

Getting men on:
After six hits, four walks and two hit-by-pitches, the Sox' team on-base percentage creeped upward to ..316. Still not that great, but it's on the rise.

Living dangerously:
Orlando Hernandez provided another high-wire act Saturday, allowing eight hits and walking a pair. His WHIP for the season is now a scarry 1.63 and he's allowed 36 hits in 30 innings pitched so far in 2005. The Cuban righty of undetermined age is on target to give up more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his major league career.

How damaging is it to give up a ton of hits? Lets look at who gave up the most hits in 2004:

1. Sidney Ponson 265
2. Mark Buehrle 257
3. Carlos Silva 255
4. Kenny Rogers 248
5. Mike Maroth 244
6. Jason Jennings 241
7. Kyle Lohse 240
8. Darrell May 234
9. Livan Hernendez 234
10. Roy Oswalt 233

Well, it looks like the Good, the Bad and the just plain Ugly. Of course, Buehrle, El Duque's little brother and Oswalt are good, while Kenny Rogers is underrated. I think Silva pitched over his head last year, but he had a good season. Jennings, Maroth and Lohse are bad. And after both had good seasons in 2003, it seem like Ponson and May went to the mound covered in gasoline while AL hitters took turns putting matches to them.

The next 10 on the list is the same mixed bag, with guys that were good (Mark Mulder, Brad Radke), guys that were average (hello, Jon Garland) and guys that sucked (Shawn Estes).

So what is the difference? Well, some of the really good guys like Hernandez and Oswalt still had more innings than hits allowed. Among the rest of the guys there were good, Buehrle and Radke didn't walk very many guys. Other guys that were in between, like Silva and Rogers, sort of live on the edge. The guys that were good also had a tendency to keep the ball in the ballpark, except for Buehrle, who was hurt a lot by playing at New Comiskey.

So how will El Duque survive? Well, he's on pace to walk 88 guys this season, so that will have to improve. He's only allowed one home run this year, so he's doing good there.
Or he could just give up fewer hits, right?

POW:
Posednik went 0-for-2 with a pair of walk, lifting his OBP to .354. He also stole a base and drove in a run with a soft grounder in the seventh. His flurry of 5 walks last week also almost doubled his season total and put him on pace for 129. Way to go Scotty. I'd like to think think that could last.

On Deck:
Jon Garland (4-0, 1.80) against Wil Ledezma (1-1, 5.82). For his career, Ledezma has always been a better first-half pitcher (3.12 ERA before the All-Star break, 6.54 after).

Detroit 3, Chicago 2 (11 inn.)

After overachieving in the one-run game department, the Sox are coming back to earth a bit after dropping a 3-2 game to Detroit on Friday. The Sox have now lost three straight after starting out 16-4.

Jose Contreras held up the pitching end of the bargain, giving up only three hits and three walks in six innings. The Sox also managed to get on base with a season-high 11 walks to go along with seven hits. Where things went south for the South Siders was in leaving 16 men on base.
Aaron Rowand, Willie Harris, Joe Crede and Scott Posednik combined for five walks, but all four also combined to go 0-for-16.

I don't want to bad-mouth walks, because they're the byproduct of a good approach at the plate, but man, a hit or two sure would have been nice.

The outburst of patience that hit the Sox lineup helped lift the team on-base percentage up to .314. That's still only good for 24th among MLB teams, but it's better than being second-to-last like the Sox were recently. It also moves them ahead of Cleveland, Oakland and Los Angeles in the American League.

Amazingly, despite also ranking near the bottom in slugging percentage (23rd), the Sox are still
18th in runs scored. One huge scoring night, or a couple pretty good scoring nights, could put this team in the top 10 in runs among all 30 MLB teams.

Still, that's not sustainable unless the Sox start hitting better, and even manager Ozzie Guillen has come out in the media and said so.

This team really needs Frank Thomas back.

GAME NOTE:

Living up to expectations:
When the Sox signed Tadahito Iguchi, most observers of Japanese baseball thought the second baseman would forfeit a lot of his power, but be able to sustain his average and keep drawing a fair number of walks. So far, those observations have been spot-on.

Iguchi on the season has hit .324 with enough free passes (4) to keep his OBP up at .365. And of his 24 hits, only three have gone for extra bases. All three have been doubles.

My guess is Iguchi drops in average a little, picks up a few more walks and sees a little spike in his power numbers as he gets more comfortable on this side of the Pacific Ocean. I can see his OPS going from .715 (going into Saturday's game against Detroit) to around .775. Nothing super, but nothing for a second baseman to be ashamed about.

"I never hit.":
That's what manager Ozzie Guillen told the media after GM Kenny Williams joked (we hope) about activating the former shortstop to take over his old position while the Sox healed some injuries. I think it's funny because a fair number of commentators cracked that Guillen would want to field a lineup of nine light-hitting shortstops when he took the job after the 2003 season.

So far, that hasn't been the case. Not only has Guillen come out and pointed to his team's offensive deficiencies, but he also hasn't loaded the team up with his batless bretheren. He even had the chance to do it when the Sox had Wilson Valdez around.

For the record, Guillen batted .264 with a .287 OBP and a .338 slugging average in 7,133 at-bats in 16 seasons. He had 28 home runs, and three times reached his career high of four. Here are his top 10 matches in similarity scores.

1. Alfredo Griffin (940)
2. Bill Russell (924)
3. Joe Tinker (923)
4. Billy Jurges (913)
5. Roger Peckinpaugh (901)
6. Phil Rizzuto (891)
7. Roy McMillan (891)
8. Marty Marion (890)
9. Art Fletcher (889)
10. Don Kessinger (887)

All of those guys except Griffin and Rizzuto have managed in the major leagues. So apparently, light-hitting middle infielders make good managerial material the same way backup catchers do.

POW:
Posednik is still in the same OBP territory (.347) with his two walks being nullified by his 0-for-4 showing at the plate.

On Deck:
The second of three against Detroit. Orlando Hernandez (2-1, 2.47) will take on Jason Johnson (2-1, 4.35). It would be nice to see the Sox tee-off on the Tigers' Opening Day starter from a year ago.

Sox streak snapped, lose last two in Oakland

While it was sad to see the White Sox’ eight-game streak come to an end, especially on a pair of miffed fly balls late in the last two games against Oakland, it was a pretty nice run.

For now the Sox need to think about what’s going to happen with their roster. After injuries to infielders Pablo Ozuna, Juan Uribe and Tadahito Iguchi, the Sox had to resort to desperate measures in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss.

Joe Crede played his first major league game at shortstop, while Chris Widger played his first professional game ever at third. Then after Crede was given the boot by umpires in the ninth, Jermaine Dye took over at shortstop for the first time since before he was a pro.

With the team with its back against the wall, I have to say I’m impressed with the creativity Sox manager Ozzie Guillen showed by moving his players around the way he did. After all, what would have been the options?

The Sox could have optioned lefty Neal Cotts and brought up an infielder from Charlotte. That probably wasn’t a good idea, since the shortstop options there included 30-year-old Felix Martinez and recently re-signed Greg Norton, who probably can’t handle the position anymore at the tender age of 32.

Angel Gonzalez, who is hitting .333 with a .424 on-base percentage for Birmingham (Class AA) might have been an option, too, but besides the fact his numbers have only been over 48 at-bats, I don’t know that we can even coin his hitting thus far a success. He’s slugging .354 with one extra-base hit this season. He’d get the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors.

So, even ignoring the fact that Cotts is the freshest arm in the Sox pen at the moment, it doesn’t look like the Sox had any internal options, making the first plan ineffective.

That means the other option, putting one of the injured guys on the DL, wouldn’t work out either. The Sox would still be working with the same options.

In addition to that, I’m sure the Sox wouldn’t want to risk losing one of those guys for 15 days if it turns out the injury isn’t very serious. In the case of Osuna (swollen/bruised wrist) and Iguchi (bruised knee), they probably just need a few days to heal. Uribe, with his hamstring injury, might really need a visit to the DL.

So the Sox got by with what they had, and it seemed to work out OK. At least it worked out well enough that nobody should be bemoaning the loss of Wilson Valdez.

GAME NOTES:

Moving to his left:
Joe Crede acquitted himself well at shortstop, or at least as well as you can expect from a guy that hasn’t played the position in almost five years. He didn’t make an error and was involved in a pair of double plays.

This got me thinking about the last time the Sox moved their regular third baseman over to shortstop. It was May 20, 1994, in another game in Oakland. Craig Grebeck had to leave the game, so then-manager Gene Lamont shifted Robin Ventura off the hot corner over to shortstop.

Sure, you could point out other guys like Juan Uribe, Greg Norton, Chris Snopek or any of the other guys the Sox have trotted out to third base and say, “Hey, didn’t those third basemen play some short?” To which I’d respond, “Yes, they did, but they weren’t THE team’s third baseman.”

What makes this so special is that Joe Crede has rarely played the position, and if not for the injuries in Tuesday’s game, would never be asked to. Unlike those other guys that were utility infielder types.

So how did Ventura do? He made his ninth and 10^th errors of the season in eight chances, to begin and end his career at shortstop with a .750 fielding percentage.

Ventura went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI in that game. The Sox won 13-6 and picked up a game on Cleveland, boosting their lead to 1 ½ games in the first year of the AL Central Division. Ah, what might have been that season.

Worth his money:
Freddy Garcia lowered his ERA to 2.83 by tossing seven innings of one-hit ball. His WHIP for the season is now an outstanding 1.00. He walked two and struck out four. His K-rate of 4.89 is still pretty low, so maybe his ERA is in for a jump. We’ll see, but for now he’s earning every penny of his 3-year, $27 million contract.

Keep your eye on the ball:
Dye dropped a ball in ninth inning of Tuesday’s 9-7 loss, with the error leading directly to Marco Scutaro beginning the inning on second base. Without the mistake, Oakland still might have pushed across a run for the win, but we’ll never know. Maybe the Sox could have won their ninth.

Rowand lost one in the sun to give Oakland a similar head start in Wednesday’s ninth inning.

How these guys play defense is important to watch, because beyond the obvious reason, it could help determine who gets their playing time cut the most once Frank Thomas returns.

After going 0-for-4 Wednesday, Dye’s average slid to .177, with his OBP also at .203. As we get ready to wrap up the end of the season’s first month, the Sox need to seriously think about finding more room for Dye on the bench.

Rowand hasn’t been as putrid as Dye, but his .253/.306/.354 line is going to have to improve, or he could be spending more of his time watching Scott Posednik play center field. From the bench.

Benching Dye every other day in favor of Carl Everett seems like a good idea to me, while benching Rowand seems like a hasty move, and probably a bad one. But these guys are going to be fighting for playing time. No matter what Guillen says about Frank having to fight his way back into the lineup, there’s no way any of these other guys are going to beat out the team’s best hitter for playing time.

POW:
Posednik went 0-for-4 with no walks to see his OBP slide all the way to .348. No stolen bases.

On Deck:
The Sox don’t play Thursday, and will use the day to see if they can get their middle infielders healthy. Again, my guess is Uribe gets DLed, the other guys maybe need a few more days off. Could lead to some interesting lineups in this weekend’s series against Detroit.

Jose Contreras looks healthy enough to start Friday, while Hernandez will be Saturday’s starter.

White Sox 6, Oakland 0

With help from Chris Widger’s first home run since August 9, 2000, Jon Garland tossed a complete-game four-hitter at Oakland in a 6-0 White Sox win Monday night in Oakland. Garland, who lowered his ERA to 1.80, walked only one batter and struck out three.

After watching the game, I have to admit, Garland is still a puzzle to me. His strikeout rate is way down (3.3 per 9 IP), but his K/BB rate is way up (2.2 vs. 1.34 in his career), largely because he’s given up only five walks in 30 innings.

Garland is on pace to toss 243 innings after going the distance Monday. Surely he won’t get that many, but even if he stayed on target for that workload at his current walk rate, he would only issue 41 free passes. That would be a career low for Garland among his complete big league seasons.

YEAR	BB	IP	BB/9IP
2001	61	117	4.69
2002	112	192.7	5.23
2003	108	191.3	5.08
2004	113	217	4.69
2005	41*	243*	1.50

*projection based on 162 game schedule

A couple weeks ago I compared Garland to Brad Radke, not in the sense that they’re similar, but in the sense that Garland could be a successful pitcher without striking out a ton of guys – a la Radke.

Well, cutting your career BB/9IP rate from near 5 to about 1.50 would represent a quantum leap. Is that sustainable? It just might be.

Long lauded for having a tremendous sinking fastball, Garland has never been able to really establish himself as a ground-ball pitcher. Going into this year his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was only 1.27. He’s also given up his share of titanic home runs.

This year it’s been different. Garland has his G/F ratio up to 2.10. He’s also only given up one jack so far. Again, even if he goes 243 innings as projected, that would be only eight for the year.

Could Garland, now 25, finally be harnessing that sinker and using it to get guys out?

Well, we’ll have to see. He’ll have to continue to keep the ball down, especially in Comiskey Park. And he’ll have to keep guys off base. And watching tonight, he still looks like he likes to nibble at the zone at times.

But in the meantime, it looks like something has flipped the switch, as Garland is pitching like Sox fans imagined he would when he first joined the big league staff in 2000. Fans should enjoy it now, even if it’s only an April mirage.

FLASHBACK:
Widger’s first jack in nearly five years put the Sox up 2-0 in the seventh inning. Ironically, his last bomb came off White Sox pitcher Mike Sirotka in a game the Sox won 19-3. It was a solo shot back then, and the last run scored in the game.

Incidentally, Frank Thomas had two home runs in that game, while M’s pitcher Jamie Moyer was roasted for 11 earned runs. The win kept the Sox eight games in front of Cleveland and gave them an American League best 68-45 record. Chicago finished the year as division champs with an AL-best 95 wins.

Monday, Widger raised his OPS from .481 to .760 with his 2-for-4 night. Talk about a small sample size.

POW:
Scott Posednik had the night off. His on-base percentage rests at .384.

ON DECK:
Mark Buehrle (3-1, 2.61 ERA), will go against early season dominator Rich Harden (2-0, 0.44 ERA). In addition to the microscopic ERA, Harden is also striking out more than a batter per inning. He’s also walked six men in just over 20 innings.

Back in blogging form: catching up

Since your faithful author was last seen pontificating on matters related to the Pale Hose, the team has done nothing short of turn the rest of the league on its ear by going 10-2, earning itself the best record in baseball.

All I can say is, “Wow.”

The run has included two-game sweeps of Minnesota and Detroit, as well as a three-game sweep of the Royals, who get more pathetic and desperate by the day. The White Sox have now won seven in a row as they square off against Oakland tonight.

Should we be stunned by this turn of events?

Even as a Sox fan, I have to think so. The Sox have thus far been 9-1 in one-run games this year, and are playing above their Pythagorean projection. Not that I think Pythagorean is a perfect measurement, because there are things that can happen every that that skew the numbers. But I think we can be sure that if the Sox don’t improve their team on-base percentage of .298 (which ranks last in MLB), they’ll be in trouble.

The Sox have had plenty of margin for error because of the stellar pitching they’ve gotten over the first part of the schedule. Their team ERA of 3.12 trails only Florida (a phenomenal mark of 2.12) and Atlanta (2.90). Chicago is the only American League team in the top five in team ERA.

Two things I think we can count on going forward:

1) The Sox’ ERA will go up
2) The Sox’ OBP will also go up

I think the second is the more likely of the two to see a significant increase, because most of the players dragging down the Sox team OBP are players you wouldn’t expect to stay mired in a season-long slump. For instance:

Jermaine Dye: The Sox’ new right fielder is batting .177 with a .215 OBP and a .323 slugging average, which adds up to an abysmal .538 OPS. No matter what you think of Dye’s talent level, we know he’s better than this. Even if he puts together a poor season, the Sox can count on more production from his spot.

Aaron Rowand: Even if he’s never going to play as well as he did in his huge 2004 season, he’s better than his current .235/.278/.353 line.

Carl Everett: Everett’s OBP (.254) is lower than his batting average (.258) primarily because he’s drawn only one walk this year. In his career, Carl has averaged 50 free passes per season. Unless he has a radically different approach at the plate, he’ll be able to lift his OBP. His career level is .346, with a .272 batting average. So take .020 off his career average, and that’s still not bad. In fact, it’s a whole lot better.

Other guys that are pretty low are Paul Konerko (.329 this year, as opposed to .344 career) and A.J. Pierzynski (.283 this year compared to .334 in his career).

Add to that mix a healthy Frank Thomas (.434 OBP last year and at .429 over the course of his Hall-of-Fame career), the Sox should be in OK shape. Their lack of on-base ability was truly exposed last year when the Big Hurt went down, but they won’t be as bad off as they were.

Guys who could be playing over their head in the OBP department?

Scott Posednik: His .383 mark is better than his off-the-charts (for him) 2003 in which he posted a .379 OBP. He’s on pace for 60 walks, which is about what he did each of the last two seasons, so he’ll have to keep his batting average up if he’s going to be effective. It remains to be seen if he can do that. But that’s nothing we didn’t already know going into the year.

Joe Crede: Despite taking much criticism from this author, Crede looks like he’s putting together a nice little season. In the last week he’s hit .423/.464/.769 to raise his season marks to .313/.343/.493. That’s pretty far removed from Bad Joe, who posted a .717 OPS in 2004, and more like Good Joe, who posted an .892 OPS in the second half of 2003.

Which Joe Crede are the Sox going to get this season?

The pessimist would say he’s just on a hot streak and will settle into the same holding pattern he’s been in since joining the Sox for good in 2002. The one where he shows flashes, but has a career .743 OPS.

The optimist would say he’s going to turn 27 tomorrow (April 26), is just hitting his peak, and is going to settle in and have a few nice above-average years.

Call me an optimist

As for the rest of the roster and their OBP prospects, I think we’re getting just what we should have expected from Tadahito Iguchi (.328) and Juan Uribe (.318). And even though Willie Harris has a .429 OBP built largely on an unsustainable .369 batting average, I think we can be sure that Pablo Ozuna (.200), Ross Gload (.154) and yes, even Timo Perez (.241) can get on base better than they have.

We’ll take a closer look at the Sox pitching later this week, but for now I’m convinced the OBP situation is bound to improve more than the pitching situation worsens.

SEASON NOTES:

1-run sustainability:
Not to rain on the parade, especially since I was leading it just a moment ago, but the Sox won’t be able to keep up their 9-1 record in one-run games. Why not? Because even if there were a measurable way to quantify a positive correlation between a certain roster construction and success in close games, there is still the undeniable element of luck involved. And that luck never evens out with a team winning 90 percent of its one-run games.

Or put it another way. The Sox are off to a 9-1 start in one-run games, but is it really because they’ve emphasized team speed and defense, as well as good pitching? The answer is no.

Last year’s poor-glove, right-handed mashing machine started the season 11-1 in one-run games. The Sox finished the 2004 season with a 28-18 record in one-run games. That means they went .500 the rest of the way.

So because this team is better on defense and has better pitching, they’ll keep winning the close ones where the 2004 Sox didn’t? I don’t think so.

I’m willing to concede that it’s possible there are certain roster configurations that would allow a team to be more successful in one-run games than last year’s version of the Sox. But there has yet to be a team that has found a way to win nine out of every 10 games that way.

Working ahead in the count:
If the Sox win tonight, they’ll have a five-game lead over the Twins in the AL Central race. While it’s true you only have to go back to 2003 when the Royals had a seven-game lead much later in the season, it’s also true that five games is not an insignificant head start.

If the Sox play one game over .500 for the rest of the year, they’ll finish with an 87-75 record. So even with the Twins on pace to win 90 games, the Sox could hang in the race with even a middling performance. And it would probably have to take a pretty serious collapse for them to fall out of it.

What can we expect from the two teams going forward? It’s hard to say, because I haven’t looked at the Twins’ roster from top-to-bottom. The Sox are a game better in the Pythagorean standings despite the offensive woes, but again, that’s not a good measure of success going forward.

But then, that’s the beauty of the baseball season. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

And why not talk about the Tigers or Indians? Because, brother, they both suck.

POW:
The Posednik On-base percentage Watch returns from a week and a half off to find Scotty boosting his batting average to .303 and sitting pretty with a .384 OBP. As I mentioned above, he’s on pace for about 60 walks. And he’s also on pace for 77 stolen bases with only nine caught stealing. That’s based on his nine swipes against one caught in 14 games so far this year. That would be pretty phenomenal.

Small Ball? Smart Ball? Money Ball? White Sox fans shouldn’t care as long as Posednik keeps that OBP up and steals bases with that kind of success rate.

He’s still only on pace for 77 runs scored, but I think that’s more a product of the middle of the order behind him slumping badly. It’s not like he’s running himself off the basepaths.

Welcome Back:
The Sox signed former farmhand Greg Norton to a minor league contract and assigned him to Charlotte.

Norton, drafted out of Oklahoma as a shortstop in the second round of the 1993 amateur draft, first joined the big club for cups of coffee in 1996 and 1997. He stuck in 1998 as a utility infielder, and after Robin Ventura left following that season took over the third base job.

His big year was 1999 when as a 26-year old he posted .244/.333/.424 marks with 16 home runs and 26 doubles in just more than 400 at-bats.

The Sox brought in Herb Perry the next year, who had a nice season and helped the 2000 Sox to their surprising division title. Despite Perry’s injury history, the Sox deemed Norton expendable so he was released and signed with Colorado, where he put up OPS marks of .847, .826 and .891 over the next three years.

Norton had a dismal 86 at-bats for Detroit, where he hit .174 (though still with a .274 OBP… pretty good given the rancid BA). He almost as bad at Toledo, where he hit .207/.297/.315.

Now at the beginning of his age-33 season, it’s doubtful he’s got much left in the tank, and if we see him a lot with the Sox this year, it’s because something went horribly wrong. But it’s nice to see the organization bring a guy back and give him a chance. He won’t be blocking a prospect, and if he can still keep his OBP .080-.100 above his batting average, he’s probably a better bet to be able to help a team as a pinch-hitting utility infielder than Wilson Valdez.

So welcome back Greg.

On Deck:
Jon Garland, with his 2.57 ERA, hopes to pitch the Sox past Barry Zito and Oakland. Zito has been torched in his last three games (7.27 ERA), but he is striking out more than a man an inning in that span (19 in 17 frames). This is a game I’m excited to see because like everyone else, I want to know if Garland’s success is for real.

Thanks to everyone who’s still reading this blog. I don’t deserve it after taking off for more than a week without notice. Things have been hectic, but that’s no excuse. I can’t promise I’ll be able to post every day, or won’t have to take time off during the season, but I’ll be sure to give better notice.