Saturday, April 30, 2005

Detroit 3, Chicago 2 (11 inn.)

After overachieving in the one-run game department, the Sox are coming back to earth a bit after dropping a 3-2 game to Detroit on Friday. The Sox have now lost three straight after starting out 16-4.

Jose Contreras held up the pitching end of the bargain, giving up only three hits and three walks in six innings. The Sox also managed to get on base with a season-high 11 walks to go along with seven hits. Where things went south for the South Siders was in leaving 16 men on base.
Aaron Rowand, Willie Harris, Joe Crede and Scott Posednik combined for five walks, but all four also combined to go 0-for-16.

I don't want to bad-mouth walks, because they're the byproduct of a good approach at the plate, but man, a hit or two sure would have been nice.

The outburst of patience that hit the Sox lineup helped lift the team on-base percentage up to .314. That's still only good for 24th among MLB teams, but it's better than being second-to-last like the Sox were recently. It also moves them ahead of Cleveland, Oakland and Los Angeles in the American League.

Amazingly, despite also ranking near the bottom in slugging percentage (23rd), the Sox are still
18th in runs scored. One huge scoring night, or a couple pretty good scoring nights, could put this team in the top 10 in runs among all 30 MLB teams.

Still, that's not sustainable unless the Sox start hitting better, and even manager Ozzie Guillen has come out in the media and said so.

This team really needs Frank Thomas back.

GAME NOTE:

Living up to expectations:
When the Sox signed Tadahito Iguchi, most observers of Japanese baseball thought the second baseman would forfeit a lot of his power, but be able to sustain his average and keep drawing a fair number of walks. So far, those observations have been spot-on.

Iguchi on the season has hit .324 with enough free passes (4) to keep his OBP up at .365. And of his 24 hits, only three have gone for extra bases. All three have been doubles.

My guess is Iguchi drops in average a little, picks up a few more walks and sees a little spike in his power numbers as he gets more comfortable on this side of the Pacific Ocean. I can see his OPS going from .715 (going into Saturday's game against Detroit) to around .775. Nothing super, but nothing for a second baseman to be ashamed about.

"I never hit.":
That's what manager Ozzie Guillen told the media after GM Kenny Williams joked (we hope) about activating the former shortstop to take over his old position while the Sox healed some injuries. I think it's funny because a fair number of commentators cracked that Guillen would want to field a lineup of nine light-hitting shortstops when he took the job after the 2003 season.

So far, that hasn't been the case. Not only has Guillen come out and pointed to his team's offensive deficiencies, but he also hasn't loaded the team up with his batless bretheren. He even had the chance to do it when the Sox had Wilson Valdez around.

For the record, Guillen batted .264 with a .287 OBP and a .338 slugging average in 7,133 at-bats in 16 seasons. He had 28 home runs, and three times reached his career high of four. Here are his top 10 matches in similarity scores.

1. Alfredo Griffin (940)
2. Bill Russell (924)
3. Joe Tinker (923)
4. Billy Jurges (913)
5. Roger Peckinpaugh (901)
6. Phil Rizzuto (891)
7. Roy McMillan (891)
8. Marty Marion (890)
9. Art Fletcher (889)
10. Don Kessinger (887)

All of those guys except Griffin and Rizzuto have managed in the major leagues. So apparently, light-hitting middle infielders make good managerial material the same way backup catchers do.

POW:
Posednik is still in the same OBP territory (.347) with his two walks being nullified by his 0-for-4 showing at the plate.

On Deck:
The second of three against Detroit. Orlando Hernandez (2-1, 2.47) will take on Jason Johnson (2-1, 4.35). It would be nice to see the Sox tee-off on the Tigers' Opening Day starter from a year ago.

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Sox streak snapped, lose last two in Oakland

While it was sad to see the White Sox’ eight-game streak come to an end, especially on a pair of miffed fly balls late in the last two games against Oakland, it was a pretty nice run.

For now the Sox need to think about what’s going to happen with their roster. After injuries to infielders Pablo Ozuna, Juan Uribe and Tadahito Iguchi, the Sox had to resort to desperate measures in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss.

Joe Crede played his first major league game at shortstop, while Chris Widger played his first professional game ever at third. Then after Crede was given the boot by umpires in the ninth, Jermaine Dye took over at shortstop for the first time since before he was a pro.

With the team with its back against the wall, I have to say I’m impressed with the creativity Sox manager Ozzie Guillen showed by moving his players around the way he did. After all, what would have been the options?

The Sox could have optioned lefty Neal Cotts and brought up an infielder from Charlotte. That probably wasn’t a good idea, since the shortstop options there included 30-year-old Felix Martinez and recently re-signed Greg Norton, who probably can’t handle the position anymore at the tender age of 32.

Angel Gonzalez, who is hitting .333 with a .424 on-base percentage for Birmingham (Class AA) might have been an option, too, but besides the fact his numbers have only been over 48 at-bats, I don’t know that we can even coin his hitting thus far a success. He’s slugging .354 with one extra-base hit this season. He’d get the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors.

So, even ignoring the fact that Cotts is the freshest arm in the Sox pen at the moment, it doesn’t look like the Sox had any internal options, making the first plan ineffective.

That means the other option, putting one of the injured guys on the DL, wouldn’t work out either. The Sox would still be working with the same options.

In addition to that, I’m sure the Sox wouldn’t want to risk losing one of those guys for 15 days if it turns out the injury isn’t very serious. In the case of Osuna (swollen/bruised wrist) and Iguchi (bruised knee), they probably just need a few days to heal. Uribe, with his hamstring injury, might really need a visit to the DL.

So the Sox got by with what they had, and it seemed to work out OK. At least it worked out well enough that nobody should be bemoaning the loss of Wilson Valdez.

GAME NOTES:

Moving to his left:
Joe Crede acquitted himself well at shortstop, or at least as well as you can expect from a guy that hasn’t played the position in almost five years. He didn’t make an error and was involved in a pair of double plays.

This got me thinking about the last time the Sox moved their regular third baseman over to shortstop. It was May 20, 1994, in another game in Oakland. Craig Grebeck had to leave the game, so then-manager Gene Lamont shifted Robin Ventura off the hot corner over to shortstop.

Sure, you could point out other guys like Juan Uribe, Greg Norton, Chris Snopek or any of the other guys the Sox have trotted out to third base and say, “Hey, didn’t those third basemen play some short?” To which I’d respond, “Yes, they did, but they weren’t THE team’s third baseman.”

What makes this so special is that Joe Crede has rarely played the position, and if not for the injuries in Tuesday’s game, would never be asked to. Unlike those other guys that were utility infielder types.

So how did Ventura do? He made his ninth and 10th errors of the season in eight chances, to begin and end his career at shortstop with a .750 fielding percentage.

Ventura went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI in that game. The Sox won 13-6 and picked up a game on Cleveland, boosting their lead to 1 ½ games in the first year of the AL Central Division. Ah, what might have been that season.

Worth his money:
Freddy Garcia lowered his ERA to 2.83 by tossing seven innings of one-hit ball. His WHIP for the season is now an outstanding 1.00. He walked two and struck out four. His K-rate of 4.89 is still pretty low, so maybe his ERA is in for a jump. We’ll see, but for now he’s earning every penny of his 3-year, $27 million contract.

Keep your eye on the ball:
Dye dropped a ball in ninth inning of Tuesday’s 9-7 loss, with the error leading directly to Marco Scutaro beginning the inning on second base. Without the mistake, Oakland still might have pushed across a run for the win, but we’ll never know. Maybe the Sox could have won their ninth.

Rowand lost one in the sun to give Oakland a similar head start in Wednesday’s ninth inning.

How these guys play defense is important to watch, because beyond the obvious reason, it could help determine who gets their playing time cut the most once Frank Thomas returns.

After going 0-for-4 Wednesday, Dye’s average slid to .177, with his OBP also at .203. As we get ready to wrap up the end of the season’s first month, the Sox need to seriously think about finding more room for Dye on the bench.

Rowand hasn’t been as putrid as Dye, but his .253/.306/.354 line is going to have to improve, or he could be spending more of his time watching Scott Posednik play center field. From the bench.

Benching Dye every other day in favor of Carl Everett seems like a good idea to me, while benching Rowand seems like a hasty move, and probably a bad one. But these guys are going to be fighting for playing time. No matter what Guillen says about Frank having to fight his way back into the lineup, there’s no way any of these other guys are going to beat out the team’s best hitter for playing time.

POW:
Posednik went 0-for-4 with no walks to see his OBP slide all the way to .348. No stolen bases.

On Deck:
The Sox don’t play Thursday, and will use the day to see if they can get their middle infielders healthy. Again, my guess is Uribe gets DLed, the other guys maybe need a few more days off. Could lead to some interesting lineups in this weekend’s series against Detroit.

Jose Contreras looks healthy enough to start Friday, while Hernandez will be Saturday’s starter.

Tuesday, April 26, 2005

White Sox 6, Oakland 0

With help from Chris Widger’s first home run since August 9, 2000, Jon Garland tossed a complete-game four-hitter at Oakland in a 6-0 White Sox win Monday night in Oakland. Garland, who lowered his ERA to 1.80, walked only one batter and struck out three.

After watching the game, I have to admit, Garland is still a puzzle to me. His strikeout rate is way down (3.3 per 9 IP), but his K/BB rate is way up (2.2 vs. 1.34 in his career), largely because he’s given up only five walks in 30 innings.

Garland is on pace to toss 243 innings after going the distance Monday. Surely he won’t get that many, but even if he stayed on target for that workload at his current walk rate, he would only issue 41 free passes. That would be a career low for Garland among his complete big league seasons.

YEAR

BB

IP

BB/9IP

2001

61

117

4.69

2002

112

192.7

5.23

2003

108

191.3

5.08

2004

113

217

4.69

2005

41*

243*

1.50

*projection based on 162 game schedule

A couple weeks ago I compared Garland to Brad Radke, not in the sense that they’re similar, but in the sense that Garland could be a successful pitcher without striking out a ton of guys – a la Radke.

Well, cutting your career BB/9IP rate from near 5 to about 1.50 would represent a quantum leap. Is that sustainable? It just might be.

Long lauded for having a tremendous sinking fastball, Garland has never been able to really establish himself as a ground-ball pitcher. Going into this year his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was only 1.27. He’s also given up his share of titanic home runs.

This year it’s been different. Garland has his G/F ratio up to 2.10. He’s also only given up one jack so far. Again, even if he goes 243 innings as projected, that would be only eight for the year.

Could Garland, now 25, finally be harnessing that sinker and using it to get guys out?

Well, we’ll have to see. He’ll have to continue to keep the ball down, especially in Comiskey Park. And he’ll have to keep guys off base. And watching tonight, he still looks like he likes to nibble at the zone at times.

But in the meantime, it looks like something has flipped the switch, as Garland is pitching like Sox fans imagined he would when he first joined the big league staff in 2000. Fans should enjoy it now, even if it’s only an April mirage.

FLASHBACK:
Widger’s first jack in nearly five years put the Sox up 2-0 in the seventh inning. Ironically, his last bomb came off White Sox pitcher Mike Sirotka in a game the Sox won 19-3. It was a solo shot back then, and the last run scored in the game.

Incidentally, Frank Thomas had two home runs in that game, while M’s pitcher Jamie Moyer was roasted for 11 earned runs. The win kept the Sox eight games in front of Cleveland and gave them an American League best 68-45 record. Chicago finished the year as division champs with an AL-best 95 wins.

Monday, Widger raised his OPS from .481 to .760 with his 2-for-4 night. Talk about a small sample size.

POW:
Scott Posednik had the night off. His on-base percentage rests at .384.

ON DECK:
Mark Buehrle (3-1, 2.61 ERA), will go against early season dominator Rich Harden (2-0, 0.44 ERA). In addition to the microscopic ERA, Harden is also striking out more than a batter per inning. He’s also walked six men in just over 20 innings.

Monday, April 25, 2005

Back in blogging form: catching up

Since your faithful author was last seen pontificating on matters related to the Pale Hose, the team has done nothing short of turn the rest of the league on its ear by going 10-2, earning itself the best record in baseball.

All I can say is, “Wow.”

The run has included two-game sweeps of Minnesota and Detroit, as well as a three-game sweep of the Royals, who get more pathetic and desperate by the day. The White Sox have now won seven in a row as they square off against Oakland tonight.

Should we be stunned by this turn of events?

Even as a Sox fan, I have to think so. The Sox have thus far been 9-1 in one-run games this year, and are playing above their Pythagorean projection. Not that I think Pythagorean is a perfect measurement, because there are things that can happen every that that skew the numbers. But I think we can be sure that if the Sox don’t improve their team on-base percentage of .298 (which ranks last in MLB), they’ll be in trouble.

The Sox have had plenty of margin for error because of the stellar pitching they’ve gotten over the first part of the schedule. Their team ERA of 3.12 trails only Florida (a phenomenal mark of 2.12) and Atlanta (2.90). Chicago is the only American League team in the top five in team ERA.

Two things I think we can count on going forward:

1) The Sox’ ERA will go up
2) The Sox’ OBP will also go up

I think the second is the more likely of the two to see a significant increase, because most of the players dragging down the Sox team OBP are players you wouldn’t expect to stay mired in a season-long slump. For instance:

Jermaine Dye: The Sox’ new right fielder is batting .177 with a .215 OBP and a .323 slugging average, which adds up to an abysmal .538 OPS. No matter what you think of Dye’s talent level, we know he’s better than this. Even if he puts together a poor season, the Sox can count on more production from his spot.

Aaron Rowand: Even if he’s never going to play as well as he did in his huge 2004 season, he’s better than his current .235/.278/.353 line.

Carl Everett: Everett’s OBP (.254) is lower than his batting average (.258) primarily because he’s drawn only one walk this year. In his career, Carl has averaged 50 free passes per season. Unless he has a radically different approach at the plate, he’ll be able to lift his OBP. His career level is .346, with a .272 batting average. So take .020 off his career average, and that’s still not bad. In fact, it’s a whole lot better.

Other guys that are pretty low are Paul Konerko (.329 this year, as opposed to .344 career) and A.J. Pierzynski (.283 this year compared to .334 in his career).

Add to that mix a healthy Frank Thomas (.434 OBP last year and at .429 over the course of his Hall-of-Fame career), the Sox should be in OK shape. Their lack of on-base ability was truly exposed last year when the Big Hurt went down, but they won’t be as bad off as they were.

Guys who could be playing over their head in the OBP department?

Scott Posednik: His .383 mark is better than his off-the-charts (for him) 2003 in which he posted a .379 OBP. He’s on pace for 60 walks, which is about what he did each of the last two seasons, so he’ll have to keep his batting average up if he’s going to be effective. It remains to be seen if he can do that. But that’s nothing we didn’t already know going into the year.

Joe Crede: Despite taking much criticism from this author, Crede looks like he’s putting together a nice little season. In the last week he’s hit .423/.464/.769 to raise his season marks to .313/.343/.493. That’s pretty far removed from Bad Joe, who posted a .717 OPS in 2004, and more like Good Joe, who posted an .892 OPS in the second half of 2003.

Which Joe Crede are the Sox going to get this season?

The pessimist would say he’s just on a hot streak and will settle into the same holding pattern he’s been in since joining the Sox for good in 2002. The one where he shows flashes, but has a career .743 OPS.

The optimist would say he’s going to turn 27 tomorrow (April 26), is just hitting his peak, and is going to settle in and have a few nice above-average years.

Call me an optimist

As for the rest of the roster and their OBP prospects, I think we’re getting just what we should have expected from Tadahito Iguchi (.328) and Juan Uribe (.318). And even though Willie Harris has a .429 OBP built largely on an unsustainable .369 batting average, I think we can be sure that Pablo Ozuna (.200), Ross Gload (.154) and yes, even Timo Perez (.241) can get on base better than they have.

We’ll take a closer look at the Sox pitching later this week, but for now I’m convinced the OBP situation is bound to improve more than the pitching situation worsens.

SEASON NOTES:

1-run sustainability:
Not to rain on the parade, especially since I was leading it just a moment ago, but the Sox won’t be able to keep up their 9-1 record in one-run games. Why not? Because even if there were a measurable way to quantify a positive correlation between a certain roster construction and success in close games, there is still the undeniable element of luck involved. And that luck never evens out with a team winning 90 percent of its one-run games.

Or put it another way. The Sox are off to a 9-1 start in one-run games, but is it really because they’ve emphasized team speed and defense, as well as good pitching? The answer is no.

Last year’s poor-glove, right-handed mashing machine started the season 11-1 in one-run games. The Sox finished the 2004 season with a 28-18 record in one-run games. That means they went .500 the rest of the way.

So because this team is better on defense and has better pitching, they’ll keep winning the close ones where the 2004 Sox didn’t? I don’t think so.

I’m willing to concede that it’s possible there are certain roster configurations that would allow a team to be more successful in one-run games than last year’s version of the Sox. But there has yet to be a team that has found a way to win nine out of every 10 games that way.

Working ahead in the count:
If the Sox win tonight, they’ll have a five-game lead over the Twins in the AL Central race. While it’s true you only have to go back to 2003 when the Royals had a seven-game lead much later in the season, it’s also true that five games is not an insignificant head start.

If the Sox play one game over .500 for the rest of the year, they’ll finish with an 87-75 record. So even with the Twins on pace to win 90 games, the Sox could hang in the race with even a middling performance. And it would probably have to take a pretty serious collapse for them to fall out of it.

What can we expect from the two teams going forward? It’s hard to say, because I haven’t looked at the Twins’ roster from top-to-bottom. The Sox are a game better in the Pythagorean standings despite the offensive woes, but again, that’s not a good measure of success going forward.

But then, that’s the beauty of the baseball season. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

And why not talk about the Tigers or Indians? Because, brother, they both suck.

POW:
The Posednik On-base percentage Watch returns from a week and a half off to find Scotty boosting his batting average to .303 and sitting pretty with a .384 OBP. As I mentioned above, he’s on pace for about 60 walks. And he’s also on pace for 77 stolen bases with only nine caught stealing. That’s based on his nine swipes against one caught in 14 games so far this year. That would be pretty phenomenal.

Small Ball? Smart Ball? Money Ball? White Sox fans shouldn’t care as long as Posednik keeps that OBP up and steals bases with that kind of success rate.

He’s still only on pace for 77 runs scored, but I think that’s more a product of the middle of the order behind him slumping badly. It’s not like he’s running himself off the basepaths.

Welcome Back:
The Sox signed former farmhand Greg Norton to a minor league contract and assigned him to Charlotte.

Norton, drafted out of Oklahoma as a shortstop in the second round of the 1993 amateur draft, first joined the big club for cups of coffee in 1996 and 1997. He stuck in 1998 as a utility infielder, and after Robin Ventura left following that season took over the third base job.

His big year was 1999 when as a 26-year old he posted .244/.333/.424 marks with 16 home runs and 26 doubles in just more than 400 at-bats.

The Sox brought in Herb Perry the next year, who had a nice season and helped the 2000 Sox to their surprising division title. Despite Perry’s injury history, the Sox deemed Norton expendable so he was released and signed with Colorado, where he put up OPS marks of .847, .826 and .891 over the next three years.

Norton had a dismal 86 at-bats for Detroit, where he hit .174 (though still with a .274 OBP… pretty good given the rancid BA). He almost as bad at Toledo, where he hit .207/.297/.315.

Now at the beginning of his age-33 season, it’s doubtful he’s got much left in the tank, and if we see him a lot with the Sox this year, it’s because something went horribly wrong. But it’s nice to see the organization bring a guy back and give him a chance. He won’t be blocking a prospect, and if he can still keep his OBP .080-.100 above his batting average, he’s probably a better bet to be able to help a team as a pinch-hitting utility infielder than Wilson Valdez.

So welcome back Greg.

On Deck:
Jon Garland, with his 2.57 ERA, hopes to pitch the Sox past Barry Zito and Oakland. Zito has been torched in his last three games (7.27 ERA), but he is striking out more than a man an inning in that span (19 in 17 frames). This is a game I’m excited to see because like everyone else, I want to know if Garland’s success is for real.

Thanks to everyone who’s still reading this blog. I don’t deserve it after taking off for more than a week without notice. Things have been hectic, but that’s no excuse. I can’t promise I’ll be able to post every day, or won’t have to take time off during the season, but I’ll be sure to give better notice.

Saturday, April 23, 2005

No new posts for a while

I am sorry there haven't been many posts lately. I'd like to continue posting after every game, but it's been tough in the early going with my schedule. I hope to be back on track by Monday afternoon.

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

White Sox 2, Indians 1

Freddy Garcia was calm and in control for eight innings Monday when the Sox beat the Indians 2-1 in Cleveland. Garcia retired the last 14 batters he faced an used only 109 pitches.

After Garcia's last time out, I made the comment that he's not an "ace" pitcher, and I'm sticking to that. It is interesting to note that by similarity scores (found on www.baseballreference.com) Garcia finds himself alongside some other guys that are considered aces:

1. Matt Morris (956)
2. Kevin Millwood (956)
3. Ben McDonald (955)
4. Jose Guzman (951)
5. Larry Christenson (943)
6. Tom Lovett (941)
7. Pat Jarvis (940)
8. Mark Mulder (932)

Garcia is comparable to none other than the man he outdueled on Monday. And both guys are kind of similar in that they're good top-of-the-rotation guys, but not really aces because they walk a few too many guys (60-70 per year) and don't strike out a ton of guys (usually only 140-180 per season). Matt Morris is the same way, but with just a little better control (he averages 60 BB per year).

And the pitcher most like Garcia through age 29, his age during his last full season? Drumroll please..... former Sox pitcher Bartolo Colon. Of course Colon could dial up the strikeouts better, and was also a bit wilder.
For .

GAME NOTES:
-- Catcher Chris Widger, giving starter A.J. Pierzynski the day off, surprised me when he was the only Sox player to draw a walk Monday. He's never drawn more than 30 in a season, and in any season where he's had at least 100 at-bats, he's had an on-base percentage higher than .308 once -- a .325 back in 1999. Old player skills setting in? Sox fans can only hope so.

-- Sox lefty reliever Damaso Marte came in and got two batters in the ninth, but he gave up a walk when he didn't go right after Indians DH Travis Hafner. I can understand wanting to work carefully to Hafner, especially in a one-run game, but since Marte has the stuff to overpower left-handed hitter, that's what he should be doing.

OPS AGAINST MARTE 2002-05
RH Batters: .688
LH Batters: .470

In 13 career at-bats, Hafner has a career OPS of .760. But that's mostly because of a .375 on-base percentage bolstered by three walks, including one yesterday. Hafner has also struck out seven times in those 13 at-bats, so it seems to me like the lefty-hitting DH is more likely to hurt Marte by taking a free pass.

POW:
Scott Posednik raised his on-base percentage back up to .333 by going 2-for-4. He also stole a base, scored a run and plated another with two-out RBI single in the seventh that gave the Sox the lead for good. Is small ball really working? That remains to be seen, but I suspect Scotty P. is going to have to raise his OBP a bit to remain effective on offense the entire season.

ON DECK:
The Sox play again at Cleveland on on Wednesday where Jose Contreras (1-0, 1.50 ERA) re-matches with Cliff Lee (0-1, 13.50). It will be interesting to see what the Tribe does against Contreras after seeing him for the second time in two weeks, and might tell us a little bit about what we can expect from the big Cuban righty for the rest of the year.



Monday, April 11, 2005

Twins 5, White Sox 2

After the White Sox plated a couple early runs, reigning Cy Young-winner Johan Santana settled down and proceeded to make every hitter in the Sox line his personal bitch. An error proved costly for Sox starter Mark Buehrle. Otherwise, not much else to report.

Sox take two games in a three-game series, though, so that’s something.

On Deck Today:

Sox go to Cleveland and face Kevin Millwood for the second time in two weeks. Freddy Garcia takes the hill for Chicago.

Sunday, April 10, 2005

White Sox 8, Twins 5

Despite the supposed shift to defense, the Sox are still punching their fair share of home runs, hitting three Saturday night in an 8-5 win over the Twins..

Are the Sox really more of a small-ball team than last year? With Chicago's offseason moves being highlighted by the Carlos Lee-for-Scott Posednik swap, pust the decision to let Magglio Ordonez walk, that seems to be how fans and local scribes are characterizing the change.

I don't buy it. Let's run down the team by position:

First Base: Paul Konerko (2004) vs. Konerko (2005).
Verdict: Push.

Second Base: Willie Harris (2004) vs. Tadahito Iguchi (2005).
Iguchi has less speed and more power. Sox actually going the other way here. Verdict: Big Ball.

Shortstop: Jose Valentin (2004) vs. Juan Uribe (2005)
You could argue that Uribe is more of a small-ball player than Valentin and his 30 home runs in '04. But I don't think this move has to do with a shift in philosophy. It had more to do with economics. Uribe is younger, cheaper and potentially better this season. This move was more about the personel on-hand for the Sox. Verdict: Push.

Third Base: Joe Crede (2004) vs. Crede (2005)
(Not-So) Young (Anymore) Joe gets one more crack at the third-base job. Verdict: Push.

Catcher: Miguel Olivo (2004) vs. A.J. Pierzynski (2005)
Olivo was always touted for his power potential, but really he only played like a part-time catch-and-throw guy. Pierzynski is an obvious offensive upgrade, and doesn't carry the defensive rep of the Sox' former receiver. That perception might not be the reality, but conventional wisdom says the Sox didn't go small ball here. Verdict: Big Ball.

Left Field: Lee (2004) vs. Posednik (2005)
This one was also fueled by economics, with Lee due $8 million and Posednik slated to earn close to the league minumum. But it's obvious this is where the Sox wanted to add "speed and defense." Verdict: Small Ball.

Center Field: Aaron Rowand (2004) vs. Rowand (2005)
Verdict: Push.

Right Field: Magglio Ordonez (2004) vs. Jermaine Dye (2005)
Ordonez is gone because the Sox didn't want to ink him to an insane contract. Economics, pure and simple. Dye plays better D, and I guess that fits in with a small-ball approach, but I don't think Dye fits the small ball mold. Verdict: Push.

Designated Hitter: Frank Thomas/Carl Everett (2004) vs. Carl Everett/Frank Thomas (2005)
Verdict: Push.

So it goes 2-1 in favor of Big Ball for the Sox, with a fist full of pushes because the the same guys are manning the position, or because the decision wasn't about philosophy. That doesn't mean the Sox will be a more offensive club than last year. It just means I think the small ball story line has been way overplayed. The only thing Sox GM Kenny Williams did was pursue available upgrades where they fit into his payroll.

Now back to the Sox/Twins series.

GAME NOTES:
-- Crede, Uribe and Timo Perez all had big hits, including Perez' shot in the seventh inning. I don't have time to look the stats to verify this right now, but I suspect that it helps all of those guys that radRadke generally stays in the strike zone. They've all been known to chase stuff off the plate.

-- Sox pitcher Jon Garland struck out only one guy is six innings. Here's a look at Garland's Ks per nine innings:

2000 5.43
2001 4.69
2002 5.23
2003 5.07
2004 4.69

Garland is only 25-years-old, but his strikeouts are going the wrong way. If there's a bright side to this, his K/BB rate his improved every year he's been in the big leagues, going from 1.05 in 2000 to 1.49 last season. A pitcher can still be successful without big strikeout numbers, but Garland will have to walk a lot fewer guys to get into that territory. For an example, just look at his pitching opponent on Saturday.

Brad Radke Career
K/9: 5.46 K/BB: 3.27

Yea. Garland has a long way to go.

-- It's a scary thought for Sox fans to think about what Twins catcher Joe Mauer would do if they moved him out from behind the dish. That's not a dig at his defense, though he did have a passed ball in Saturday's game. It's more of a comment on his ability to stay healthy while catching. I believe in his bat, and think he could do a lot of great things. As a baseball fan, I'd like to see that.

-- Konerko still hitting well, drilling his third home run. He's hit in every game this year.

-- It was nice to see Cliff Politte and Damaso Marte each go 1 1-3 innings on Saturday. That's a lot better than what happened during Thursday's mess, where each only faced one batter and Sox manager Ozzie Guillen burned his entire bullpen. He's got to get past this on-the-job training stuff.

-- Don't look now, but the Sox have the best record in the American League at 4-2.

POW:
Posednik went 1-for-4 and his on-base percentage dipped to .318, down from a season-high .333. No stolen bases, but Posednik did have a nice hustle play to score on the Mauer passed ball in the seventh inning. He hit into a fielders choice and went from first-to-third on a throwing error by J.C. Romero.

AROUND BASEBALL:
The Indians' Jake Westbrook was hammered by the Tigers on Saturday. It's no secret I'm not a Westbrook fan. He was way over his head last year. ... The headline on ESPN's scoreboard page says it all: Angels snuff out Lima Time and Royals. ... Richard Hidalgo, my first choice of free agents the Sox should have targeted for right field, hit his second home run of the season in a 7-6 Texas win over Seattle. ... Former White Sox pitcher David Wells got hammered for the second time in as many starts, giving up six earned runs in just more than six innings as Boston lost 12-5 to Toronto. Boston is struggling a little early at 2-3, but don't look for that to continue. ... The Mets are still winless and Oliver Perez of the Pirates got hammered again.

ON DECK TODY:
The two best left-handers in the American League face off tonight as Mark Buehrle goes against Johan Santana. The game is on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Wow. This is going to be a fun one to watch.

Saturday, April 09, 2005

White Sox 5, Twins 1

Nice to see Orlando Hernandez have a nice outing. He needed just more than 100 pitches to go seven innings, for the most part because he didn't walk anyone. He did strike out five. There's no secret and no mystery to it. If El Duque stays healthy, he's a great pitcher. Here's hoping the Sox keep him healthy.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rowand did a little something at the plate, driving in two runs with a homer in three at-bats. I don't know that we can say he's officially heating up with the bat, but you can't argue with what he did Friday night.

Paul Konerko continues to rake, picking up a walk and a hit. His batting average actually fell to .429. Could Konerko have an even better year that last year? Well, it's too early to tell. It would be nice, both for the Sox' ability to contend, and for Paulie, because he's by all accounts a nice guy. I don't think it would bode well for the Sox keeping him, however.

RANDOM NOTES:
-- Twins 1B/DH Matt LeCroy went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts against the Sox on Friday. Last season, in a fantasy baseball league I play in, a friend was asked if he would add LeCroy to a trade to get a deal done. The answer: LeCroy was untouchable. Supposedly, LeCroy was supposed to hit like a middling firstbaseman, but because he qualified at catcher, he would be a good-hitting catcher on a fantasy team. Well, LeCroy didn't hit as well as a lot of catchers that were available. So now some f us have a running joke about needing to acquire LeCroy to push our teams towards a fantasy championship.

-- Friday's game featured two thirdbasemen that are off to slow starts. Joe Crede went 0-for-4 to drop his average to .077 on the season. Michael Cuddyer went 1-for-4 to raise his average to .133, but he left two men in scoring position. Neither guy is going to be a world-beater this season, and both should rebound. Cuddyer will probably be the better hitter over the course of the season.

-- Twins SS Jason Bartlett is having some success in the early going after beating the craptacular Juan Castro for the starting job at short. He's batting .385 in the early going, and while it's not a roubust .385 (he has 1 extra-base hit and no walks), it is probably enough to let him keep his job should he tail off a little bit. That's not necessarily good for the Sox, because Bartlett's a better hitter than Castro, but it's good for Bartlett. He was the underdog in the position battle, and it's hard not to root for him.

Which brings me to an interesting philosophical question. Why root for your team's arch nemesis to play the better player when it could hurt your team in the standings? Easy. Because I'd rather have my team win because of what it does right, as opposed to hoping for misfortune to befall others. All things being equal, it's better to be good than lucky.

-- Nice job by Dustin Hermanson working on back-to-back days. After Thursday's disaster against the Indians, Sox manager Ozzie Guillen made the right call by letting Hermanson work two innings. Dusty fanned three, gave up two hits and walked none. He has yet to be scored on this year.

AROUND BASEBALL:
Former Sox SS Jose Valentin lifted the Dodgers for the second time this week with a home run, this time a two-run shot to cap a four-run ninth-inning come back. I work with a Dodger fan at work, and I told him this when his team picked up Valentin: people will beef when he boots a ball, but he's still going to help a team more than he'll hurt it. Why wouldn't you rather have a player that boots 10-15 extra balls per year when he's going to knock 15-20 extra dingers a year? ... The Cubs coughed up a ninth-inning lead when LaTroy Hawkins blew a save against the Brewers, who by the way are my pick for surprise team in the NL. I think Cubdom is overreacting, and if you are a true Cubs fan (which I certainly am not!) you are rooting for Jim Hendry not to panic. The only option at this point would be to overpay for someone else's garbage (Ugeth Urbina or Braden Looper or someone). ... Indians beat the Tigers. Magglio Ordonez is out with a viral infection. He'll be out until Tuesday. When you think about the money Detroit spend. Yikes! ... Former Sox pitcher Josh Fogg had a nice game against the Padres to pick up his, and Pittsburgh's, first win of the season.

Friday, April 08, 2005

Indians 11, White Sox 5

Shingo Takatsu poured gasoline all over himself in the ninth inning of today’s 11-5 laugher, and was torched for three solo home runs that tied the game at five. Luis Vizcaino soaked up 2 1/3 innings of abuse, himself being pounded for six earned runs in the 11th inning.

Why was Vizcaino allowed to stay in for so long? Well, because he was the only guy left in the bullpen after Sox manager Ozzie Guillen foolishly burned his entire pen in the span of three innings.

After getting six excellent innings from starter Jose Contreras, Guillen opted to start the seventh inning with lefty Neal Cotts. Cotts was touched up for a run on a walk and a hit while only getting one out.

Now, to begin with, why the fuck is Neal Cotts on this Sox roster? I guess the answer is that the Sox don’t think he’ll ever go back to starting because his poor mechanics would lead him to break down under the workload. Fine. That’s why he’s not starting at AAA Charlotte.

But is he really well-suited to be a lefty specialist, even the No. 2 guy after Damaso Marte? Even in 2002 when Cotts struck out a very impressive 178 batters in fewer than 140 innings for Class A Modesto, he had a WHIP of 1.58.

Things looked better the next year at Class AA Birmingham, where the then 23-year-old punched out 133 in 108 innings. But he also had an unusually low hit-rate (5.57 H/9IP) that was unsustainable, and he was still walking close to five guys per nine innings (4.65 to be exact).

He’s been in the big leagues ever since. And in that time, left-handed hitters have spanked him to the tune of an .869 OPS, compared with .776 for righties. Hardly the magic you want your lefty specialist to be working out of your bullpen.

So we know two things. 1) Cotts has yet to master AAA, having never pitched there. He should, because even after a year in Chicago, he doesn’t look ready to really help an MLB team, and 2) if the Sox are choosing a way to maximize their return on him by finding a role where he won’t get hurt… well… they need to find a different role, because to get any kind of return, Cotts has to perform well. He’s not performing well in the Sox pen.

But on to the larger issue. So, the Sox have decided to carry Cotts in the pen for better or worse. And everyone has to get some work in sometime, right? Might as well put Cotts with a four-run lead for a little tune-up.

But then Cotts got in trouble. Instead of letting him work out of it, Guillen panicked and put Cliff Politte in for one batter, and only one batter before going with Marte to face the lefty Travis Hafner.

Now, with two men (Jhnny Peralta on third, Coco Crisp on first) and a four-run lead and Ronnie Belliard at the plate, why not just let Cotts try to get Belliard out? Instead, Politte comes in, gets a fly ball out that scores Peralta.

So with the tying run still not at the plate, with Crisp on first and Hafner at the plate, why not let Politte try to get Hafner? Yes, Hafner is a good hitter, but the Sox aren’t yet in dire straits. Worst-case scenario, Hafner takes Politte deep and you’re still up by a run.

Instead, Marte comes on to get Hafner, the only batter he’ll face, on a deep fly to left. Because Guillen doesn’t want Marte to face the right-handed hitters in the eighth inning, he goes with Dustin Hermanson in the eighth. Then he has just poor old Shingo in the ninth and pretty much has to let him explode out on the mound. Oh, yea, and then let Vizcaino take one for team a few innings later.

It’s just stupid to use three pitchers in one inning. I don’t care about the matchup. It’s just plain stupid.

Instead of sweeping the Indians and sitting pretty atop the AL Central with a 3-0 record when they travel to Minnesota this weekend, the Sox are tied with the Twins (2-1) and Tigers (2-1) and face what for many fans seems like a make-or-break series. To be swept by the Twinkies would be demoralizing, even for the rational baseball fan that realizes this is just the first week of the season. Just remember, every game counts…

On The Bright Side:

Contreras looked sharp. He was staying ahead of hitters, despite wasting a number of pitches that ran his counts up, and struck out four while walking only two. A lot of batters could only slap his stuff into groundball outs, and he needed only 96 pitches to work six innings, despite throwing more balls than he had to.

I’ve given the Sox the benefit of the doubt when it comes to acquiring Contreras. He’s a pretty expensive project, but on days like today, you can see the upside the scouts see when they watch him throw. It’s now the Sox’ responsibility to keep Contreras’ head grounded, which seems to be his only barrier to becoming a dominant hurler.

New Guys Look Good:

Tadahito Iguchi had three hits to raise his average to .364 on the season, while A.J. Pierzynski knocked out a couple hits, including a home run, to raise his BA to the same. They won’t keep hitting like that, but they’ve looked good. It’s nice to know the Sox were willing to take what fell in their laps when both became available last winter.

POW:

Scott Posednik went 2-for-5 to raise his OBP to .308. He has one walk on the season and has stolen one base after reaching base five times on the year.

Wednesday, April 06, 2005

White Sox 4, Indians 3

Paul Konerko was once again the catalyst for the Sox offense as his two-run blast keyed a four-run ninth-inning comeback against the Indians and closer Bob Wickman.

Jermaine Dye also smacked a home run and Juan Uribe’s sac fly drove home Aaron Rowand, who had doubled earlier and reached third on an error by Bob Wickman.

Not much to say. I think the broader-based skills of this year’s Sox definitely helped the comeback effort, but that doesn’t mean last year’s squad couldn’t have done the same.

Of course, there is the continuing frustration with “ace” Freddy Garcia. Garcia labored through six innings, using 109 pitches while striking out six and walking three – though it seemed like more as only 58 of his pitches went for strikes.

But nobody, least of all Sox fans who got to watch him last season, should be surprised that he is not the ace he was advertised to be with the M’s. At the same time, that doesn’t mean the Sox should think they’re getting ripped off. Just look at what some other pitchers got this offseason.

Freddy Garcia

$27

3

Matt Clement

$25

3

Derek Lowe

$36

4

Carl Pavano

$39

4

Jaret Wright

$21

3

Kris Benson

$22.5

3

Kevin Millwood

$7

1

Odalis Perez

$24

3

Brad Radke

$18

2

Can any of these guys call themselves an ace? Well, no. But these guys are all acceptable No. 2 guys in a rotation. And that’s just what Freddy Garcia is.

Before we get too made at Garcia for not living up to our expectations, we should at least appreciate what he will do for the Sox for the length of his contract. And anyway, he has a 3.00 ERA after today.

POW: Scott Posednik got his first hit of the season, but went hitless in four other at-bats. He didn’t reach base any other way, so his on-base percentage now stands at .250.

Around Baseball: Twins beat M’s and remain a half game back of the Sox. … Thank got the Yankees/Red Sox series is over, for now. … Carlos Lee had a homer and four RBI for the Brewers against the Pirates today. Magglio Ordonez is still hitless this spring. He went 0-for-2 today against the Royals and left after the fourth inning because of dizziness. … Another former White Sock, Scott Schoneweiss took the loss for the Blue Jays today.

Monday, April 04, 2005

White Sox 1, Indians 0

Mark Buehrle chewed through Cleveland’s lineup, allowing two hits and walking one while striking out five in eight innings of work. Paul Konerko provided most of the sock in the Sox’ lineup, collecting two of the team’s four hits and scoring the game’s only run on a bouncer to short hit by Aaron Rowand.

Game Notes:

-- The Sox offense didn’t do very well, but it was only one game. Talk about a small sample size. I like manager Ozzie Guillen’s answer when a reporter asked him during the postgame press conference if the though the team was overmatched offensively, which was basically, “It’s just the first day of the season.” I don’t think you an form any conclusions about a team until at least a month into the season.

-- Speaking of Guillen, he made one very good call with Konerko and another very good non-call.

The non-call came when Konerko doubled to lead off the bottom of the seventh. I was afraid Guillen would pinch run for him. Instead, he let Konerko stay in, despite being his slowness on the basepaths. The run came around to score anyway, and if necessary, Konerko could have hit again.

Guillen did replace Konerko at first base with Ross Gload to start the ninth. Gload then made a nice play for the last out of the game. Ozzie did look smart on that one, as it’s hard to imagine Konerko ranging to his right for that one.

-- Nobody looked very good at the plate, except maybe Konerko. But at the same time, nobody looked bad, except maybe Joe Crede. Nothing the Sox’ third sacker hit left the infield, and the last shot off his bat went to the shortstop for a double-play.

It was pretty unusual for Crede in that last year, better than 47 percent of his at-bats resulted in fly balls, as opposed to 33 percent that went for grounders. It doesn’t really mean anything yet, but it’s just something of interest.

POW: I’m going to be doing something called the Scott Posednik On-Base Percentage Watch. All it is an update on how often the Sox’ new leadoff hitter is reaching base. So, as of today, the POW is .250 after a walk and no hits in three at-bats.

Around Baseball: What the fuck is going on with Javier Vazquez? The Cubs are lighting his ass up. … Speaking of the North Siders, they inked third baseman Aramis Ramirez to a 4-year, $42 million deal. Ramirez can opt out after 2006. Not a great deal for Cub… The Twins are losing to the M’s. … Pedro Martinez got roughed up today, but I think he’ll be OK. .. Milwaukee beat Pittsburgh handily today, 9-2. The Brewers are my pick as this year’s surprise team in baseball. They’ll be good offensively, they have a couple good pitchers. Now all they need is a couple young guys to step up, and they could be close to .500. When you haven’t has a winning season since 1992, that would constitute a surprise.

First pitch

The first pitch by Mark Buehrle is called for a ball. Game temperature is 64 degrees. Welcome to 2005 White Sox baseball.

Sunday, April 03, 2005

Old Sox trying to find new jobs

Just keeping up with old friends... here are some of the former White Sox players fighting for spots on Opening Day rosters:

Matt Ginter, who was sent to the Mets for Timo Perez last year, won't make the Mets bullpen so instead goes to Pittsburgh, where he should be a lock. The 26-year-old righty had a 4.54 ERA last year in 69 1/3 innings spread over 14 starts and one relief appearance. Former Sox closer Roberto Hernandez, who was last seen starting fires in Philadelphia's bullpen (4.76 ERA for the Phils in '04), was added to the Mets' roster, effectively taking Ginter's spot.

Outfielder Chris Singleton will make Tampa Bay's roster as a reserve outfielder. This comes after the D-Rays also picked up Michael Restovich off waivers from the Twins, and signed the lousy (ED: and now suspended for steroids) Alex Sanchez, formerly Detroit's CF. During his time with the White Sox, Singleton was a premier defensive CF, with range factors of 3.01, 3.00 and 2.56. That last number must have been a bad omen. Even though it was still better than average (the league RF that year was 244). Singleton was traded for Willie Harris after that season, and has been below average every since.

Singleton also saw the power in his bat evaporate. As a rookie for the Sox in 1999, the then 26-year-old had 54 extra-base hits, including 17 home runs. He hit 38 and 33 the next two years, and saw mild resurgence in Baltimore in 2002, when he had 45 hits that went for extra bases (30 doubles). Then the roof caved in with Oakland in 2003. He had only 26 extra-base hits and saw his on-base percentage stay near .300.

Leg injuries cost Singleton a job with the Pirates last spring, and it's probably the same nagging problems that are costing him his speed and defensive range. At his advanced age (33 on April 15), Singleton is unlikely to reclaim the skills that made him valuable earlier in his Major League career.

Wilson Valdez, who the Sox cut last week, was picked up by the Mets, who tried to send him to AAA and lost him to the Mariners. With Seattle's bleak infield situation, Valdez looks to make that team. Some irony: Benji Gil, who came to camp with the Sox in 1998 and lost the SS job to Mike Caruso, was sent from the Mariners to the Mets for a PTBNL.

Crappy former Sox Ruben Sierra and Tanyon Sturtz will both hang out on the fringes of the Yankees' roster. That they won jobs defies probability. That the Yankees have them on guaranteed contracts and didn't really bring in anyone to compete with them screams it even louder. How they hell does a good organization do that?

Scott Schoneweis will likely make the Blue Jays in their bullpen, where he belongs (if anywhere on a MLB team). Toronto elected to cut Billy Koch in what's become a bizarre situation. At least Billy got some guaranteed cash out of the deal.

Former Sox relief prospect Joe Valentine looks like he'll make the Reds' roster. He was traded with Keith Foulke to Oakland, who later flipped him as part of a deal for Jose Guillen. Lefty Kelly Wunsch looks like he'll stick in the Dodgers bullpen. He'll be a teammate of former Sox minor-league Olmedo Saenz, who won a job as a backup infielder. The Pirates elected to keep pitcher Rick "Whiny Boy" White and former Sox draft pick Bobby Hill. Pitcher Cal Eldred looks like he'll stay in St. Louis. In Colorado, Greg Norton will keep his job as a utility infielder.

Also in the mile-high city, Charles Johnson, who was slated to be the team's third-string catcher, was traded to the Red Sox and promptly released. Johnson, 33, was scheduled to earn $9 million dollars of a backloaded 5-year, $35 million deal he signed with the Marlins after a career year in 2000, when he hit .304/.379/.582. The teams are eating various portions of the contract because even with his .350 OBP last year, his usefulness is limited. His power is falling off, even playing in Coors field, so at best he's an OK backup. He'll be a good fit when he joins Singleton in Tampa.

Jon Rauch and Gary Majewski, the pair of pitchers Sox GM Kenny Williams gave up to bring back Carl Everett last season, were sent to AAA by the Washington Nationals. That makes three former Sox pitching prospects that won't rejoin the Expos/Nats. Rocky Biddle was released in the offseason. Antonio Osuna does make the club there. Alex Escobar, who the Sox claimed on waivers last summer, went on the DL, so will be temporarily spared from being demoted or released for the third time in the last nine months.

Pitcher Jason Bere and outfielder Jeff Abbott won't make the Indians roster, and Jason Grilli won't make it with the Tigers. Catcher and former Sox farmhand Humberto Quintero, who Williams traded for D'Angelo Jimenez in 2002, was sent from the Paders to the Astros for Tim Redding. Quintero should be starting ahead of Brad Ausmus in Houston, but won't. The consolation is that even if Quintero doesn't have much of a career, he still got traded for some nice swag a couple times.

Former Sox first-round pick and draft-loophole free agent bonus baby Bobby Seay was designated for assignment by the Devil Rays. With a 3.28 ERA in 44 MLB innings, and a functioning left arm, he'll get more chances. Must be a great life.

Saturday, April 02, 2005

Widger, Ozuna earn jobs as Sox set roster

The Sox' Opening Day roster has finally taken shape:

Starting pitchers: Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland
Relief pitchers: Shingo Takatsu, Dustin Hermansen, Luis Vizcaino, Neal Cotts, Damaso Marte, Cliff Politte
Outfielders: Scott Posednik, Carl Everett, Jermaine Dye, Aaron Rowand, Timo Perez
Infielders: Joe Crede, Paul Konerko, Juan Uribe, Willie Harris, Ross Gload, Pablo Ozuna, Tadahito Iguchi
Catchers: A.J. Pierzynski, Chris Widger
DL: Frank Thomas, Felix Diaz


There was one big surprise, and that was Sox GM Kenny Williams' decision to send catcher Ben Davis to Charlotte after inking him to a $1 million, 1-year deal a day after non-tendering him at the arbitration deadline. Instead, non-roster invitee Chris Widger gets the backup job over Davis and Jamie Burke.

Widger spent last season playing in an indy league, hitting .267/.336/.576 against competition similar to what he'd see in AA ball. In his last ML season with more than 200 at-bats, back in 1999 with the Mariners, he hit .238/.311/.441. Widger also hit .235/.279/.324 for the Cardinals in 102 at-bats in 2003.

We all know the story with Davis. He hit an anemic .231/.276/.400 after coming over from Seattle last year to finish at .202/.307/.366. Davis now has a career line of .237/.306/.366 in 1,516 Major League at-bats, compared to .242/.299/.402 for Widger. With the extra power and the advantage of right-handedness on a bench full of lefty-swingers, the decision to keep Widger over Davis is pretty defensible.

At first glance, it lookes like the Sox blew a million bucks. It would be easy to criticize Williams for signing Davis to a contract in the first place, but I'll defend it for three reasons:

1) At the time, the Sox were looking at Davis as their starting catcher. It just happened that A.J. Pierzynski fell into their laps at a bargain price. So give the Sox credit for making the upgrade despite already making a move at the position.

2) Going into his age-28 season, Davis still has upside. Granted, his potential shrinks as pages fly off the calendar, but he's hit .266/.335/.423 in the minors, and has already played in parts of seven ML seasons. He'll never be a star like some thought after a great first half in the 2001 season, but his track record indicates he could still become a useful player. With his ability to hit right-handers better than left-handers, a manager could still cover some of his weaknesses as part of a useful platoon.

3) A million bucks is small beer in the big picture of a Big League payroll. It's not like the Sox signed Mike Matheny to something like, oh... say a 3-year, $10-million deal. No matter how craptacular Davis is from now until he retires, it's not a bad contract. Not bad like the one the Giants gave Matheny. Or the Marlins gave Charles Johnson four years ago ($35 million, 5-years). Those kind of deals become albatross contracts. This one won't -- not this year or ever.

Even if Davis were the primary backup on the 25-man roster, just look at what some other backup backstops are going to make this year. The Cubs gave Henry Blanco a 2-year, $2.7 million deal. Todd Greene got $750,000 for bringing his hacktastic ways back to Colorado. The ageless Dan Wilson is getting $1.75 million for another year with the Mariners. Greg Zaun, coming off injury, is getting more than a cool million from the Blue Jays. And Mike Redmond got a 2-year deal from the Twins for $1.8 million.

So giving a backup catcher a million dollars -- when you thought he'd be a starter -- isn't way out of line for where the market was. And even though Davis won't be on the 25-man roster, lets face it, he'll be starting behind the dish at the Cell should anything happen to Pierzynski.

Davis starting the year at Charlotte is probably the best thing anyway. The Sox can decide if they really think he'll ever find his bat, and they don't have to waste more Major League at-bats to do it.

The unfortunate part of this move is that it's Burke that really deserves the backup job over Widger. Now 34-years old, Burke isn't as good as the .789 OPS he had last year in 120 at-bats with the Sox, but he does have a career on-base percentage of .343 in more than 3,000 minor-league at-bats. He bats from the right side, same as Widger. Burke is probably the superior hitter at this point.

The only reason I can see for Burke starting the year at Charlotte while Widger takes a spot on the big club is if the Sox want to have Burke work out at third base for a few months. He's played there a little in the past, but looked bad there this spring. Burke would have more value if he could at least handle some other positionsWe'll have to see how this one plays out.

In other news, it was not really a surprise to see Ozuna also beat out Wilson Valdez for the untility infielder spot. Valdez arrived in the Sox organization in last summer's Billy Koch trade with the Marlins. At Charlotte, he hit .302 with a .338 on-base percentage after hitting .319/.357 for Albuquerque. Valdez was out of options, and subequently lost on waivers to the Met, but that's no big loss. Valdez is already 27-years old and has never slugged above .400 in any of his professional stops. His on-base percentage is also heavily dependent on his batting average. Mix in his so-so defense, and he's basically Mike Caruso with a slightly better glove.

Meanwhile, Ozuna hit .307/.344/.415 for Philadelphia's AAA team. Like Valdez, he'll have to hit for a pretty good average to get on base a lot, but he brings some power in his bat (.443 slugging in 8 minor-league seasons) to help compensate for that shortcoming. Ozuna should be able to give the Sox the same thing Tony Graffanino is giving the Royals this year, but at a far lesser cost.

If Ozuna makes good, it will make two straight years the Sox have been able to dig-up a quality untility infielder. In 2003, after letting Graffanino go despite a nice line of .260/.331/.428, Williams flipped Aaron Miles, an old second base prospect with limited upside, for Juan Uribe.

Besides being able to play every infield position, Uribe hit .283/.331/.506. Even in a hitter's park, that's a great performance from a utility infielder. And this year, Uribe will slide into the full-time shorstop job. And he's only 25-years old this year.

Obviously, Ozuna doesn't have the same upside. While he was once a top prospect, he was also an Agegate participant, adding years to his birth certificate during one of his winters. Now 30-years-old, Ozuna's chances at a full-time job are about gone, barring a phenomenal year as a super-sub that isn't likely. But he can still be a nice piece off the bench.

It's nice to know that the Sox are able to find inexpensive, but talented pieces to fill out the roster. It makes modest gaffes like the Davis contract much easier to live with.

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Alomar walking into history

With the likelyhood that future Hall-of-Famer Roberto Alomar will announce his retirement this week, now is as good a time as any to appreciate him as a player.

Alomar probably delivered more heartache than joy to White Sox fans. He was part of the 1993 Toronto team that beat the Sox in six games in the ALCS. He was part of the Baltimore team that chased down the Sox for the Wildcard in September of 1996. And he was part of Cleveland teams that beat the Sox for AL Central titles in 1999 and 2001.

A career .300 hitter (exactally .300) with 1,134 RBIs, 474 stolen bases, 2,724 hits and 210 home runs, Alomar has a solid case for the best second baseman of his generation with only Craig Biggio entering the discussion.

The 10-time Gold Glove winner was well past his prime when he arrived in Chicago for the last half of the 2003 season, but for one night I had the opportunity to see flashes of the player Alomar was way back when.

I was at Comiskey Park on August 19, 2003, when Anaheim was in town. Alomar batted leadoff and struck out his first time up -- one of two Ks -- but he would also reach base twice. Once on an infield hit where he slid head-first into first base. The other time he reached on an error, when he again slid head-first into the bag.

Besides the good, if not overrated defense, and the spectacular hitting, his head-first slide, even if ill-advised, is one of the most exciting parts of Alomar's game. And on that hot August night, it was exciting to see an older man play like it were 10 years ago.

Watching baseball players age, for the most part, isn't fun. It certainly hasn't been fun to watch Alomar, who's skill seem to have left him so quickly. As you see a great career fade away, it reminds you of the time that slips by in your own life. It makes you think about your future, even though you don't have to worry about "life after baseball." It makes you think about your own mortality.

But on that night, Alomar defied mortality and aging patterns. Not as a Sox fan, but as a baseball fan, I was captivated by the way Alomar played the game.

There there were a million reasons it was a bad idea to bring Alomar to town in 2003, and again in 2004. But while he didn't help push the Sox to a playoff, he didn't cost them that opportunity, either.
Given that, I can't help but feel like it was a special treat to get to see him show us what it was like when he was one of the game's best. Even if it cost a marginal prospect, and even if it was only on that one night in August.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

Looking back at top prospect lists

I saw Jon Weisman do this over at Dodger Thoughts (on all-baseball.com), and it was so much fun, I thought I'd steal the idea and do it for the White Sox...

Baseball America just put out its top-100 prospect lists for every year going back to 1990. Here's a list of the Sox to make it, by year:

1990
15. Robin Ventura, 3b
26. Wilson Alvarez, lhp
29. Frank Thomas, 1b
78. Scott Radinsky, lhp

1991
58. Johnny Ruffin, rhp
91. Wilson Alvarez, lhp

1992
45. Roberto Hernandez, rhp
74. Johnny Ruffin, rhp
90. Mike Robertson, 1b

1993
8. Jason Bere, rhp
66. James Baldwin, rhp
80. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp
88. Larry Thomas, lhp

1994
8. James Baldwin, rhp
32. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp
77. Robert Ellis, rhp

1995
23. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp
25. James Baldwin, rhp
28. Ray Durham, 2b
75. Jimmy Hurst, of

1996
52. Chris Snopek, 3b
91. Jeff Abbott, of

1997
31. Mike Cameron, of
80. Jeff Abbott, of

1998
34. Mike Caruso, ss
43. Carlos Lee, 3b
56. Magglio Ordonez, of
80. Lorenzo Barcelo, rhp

1999
28. Carlos Lee, 3b
46. Joe Crede, 3b
77. Aaron Myette, rhp

2000
14. Kip Wells, rhp
32. Jon Garland, rhp
63. Aaron Myette, rhp
96. Joe Crede, 3b

2001
4. Jon Rauch, rhp
23. Joe Borchard, of
36. Joe Crede, 3b
44. Matt Ginter, rhp
61. Dan Wright, rhp

2002
12. Joe Borchard, of
23. Jon Rauch, rhp
32. Corwin Malone, lhp
94. Joe Crede, 3b

2003
28. Joe Borchard, of
73. Kris Honel, rhp
92. Jon Rauch, rhp

2004
25. Jeremy Reed of
55. Kris Honel rhp

2005
37. Brian Anderson, of
42. Ryan Sweeney, of
49. Brandon McCarthy, rhp
95. Josh Fields, 3b
96. Tadahito Iguchi, 2b

Studs: Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Magglio Ordonez
Thomas should be an obvious Hall-of-Famer, and as I've written before, Ventura should get more consideration than he will. Ordonez has had a very nice career, which helped him land a very nice contract earlier this year. Only Thomas is an elite hitter.

Pretty Useful: Carlos Lee, Ray Durham, Wilson Alvarez, Mike Cameron, Roberto Hernandez
Alvarez was the No. 3 starter on a division-winning team, and the ace of the staff in 1997 when he was dumped in the White Flag Trade. Hernandez, also sent packing in that deal, saved 161 games for the Sox. It wasn't always pretty, but he generally threw well while in a Sox uniform. That the Sox got future uber-closer Keith Foulke in the trade is another bonus. Both Alvarez and Hernandez are still relieving in the majors.

Durham was always under-appreciated in his time with the Sox. With an OBP around .350-360, and a slugging percentage around .450 most years, with some good defense at second base, he should have brought more in return when he was traded in 2002 (to Oakland for Jon Adkins). Still with the Giants, still setting the table when healthy, Durham might not be good enough to get into the Hall of Very Good, but he's still a nice player.

Cameron has set the standard for defense in center field, and it became very noticable once he replaced Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle's outfield. Never a high batting average (.240 for his career), Cameron still gets on base (.340 career OBP) and has some power (at least 19 HR and 26 doubles the past 6 seasons).

Lee's a good hitter, but won't be missed too much now that he's been traded to the Brewers.

Somewhat Useful: James Baldwin, Scott Radinsky, Jason Bere. Kip Wells, Jon Garland
Baldwin had two good years for the Sox. His rookie campaign in 1996 when he went 11-6 with a 4.42 ERA in 169 innings, and then in 2000, when he went 14-7 with a 4.65 ERA for the division winners. Every other year he was a below-average inning eater. Even when he went 13-6 in 1998, he still had an ERA of 5.32, but was lucky and had a decent offense behind him. A fifth starter or a guy that can soak up innings is useful, so it's not his fault the Sox, or BA at one point, expected him to be a top-of-the-rotation guy.

Garland is another inning-eater. He's hurled close to 200 each of the last three years, and has been exactally league-average in each of those years. He broke in when he was only 20-years-old, so expectations have always run ahead of his production. So far he's just like James Baldwin, but with three major differences: 1) His best seasons haven't been as good, 2) His worst seasons haven't been as bad and 3) He broke into the majors much earlier, so as a 25-year-old this season, he could still lay claim to a much better career.

Wells lost his job to Garland in the rotation back in 2000, though neither acquitted himself well that year. The Sox traded him to the Pirates in the ill-advised Todd Ritchie deal, and he was one of the better starters in the National League before hitting a bump last year. It's too bad none of his success has been in a Sox uniform.

Radinsky was lights-out in 1991 and '92. He had ERAs of 2.02 and 2.73, and would have racked up more than 23 saves if it hadn't been for Hernandez and Bobby Thigpen. He was besieged by injuries, but would be a good reliver again for the Dodgers from 1996-98 as a 28-year-old. After 30 more innings he was done, but he was a good lefty out of the pen for a number of years. His last game was Oct. 5, 2001 with the Indians. Like Jack McDowell, he's a rock-and-roller.

Bere was great down the stretch for the Sox in 1993, but ...

Casualties: Bere, Lorenzo Barcelo, Jon Rauch, Dan Wright
Bere was tremendous down the stretch for the 1993 AL West champs. He went 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He followed that with a 12-2 record and a 3.81 ERA. But trying to pitch through the pain of a torn elbow in 1995, Bere had a 7.19 ERA in 137 innings. The Sox tried to nurse him back to healthy, but would only get about 120 innings of sub-par ball from him over the next three seasons.

His best campaign since demanding his release from the Sox in 1998 was his 2001 season with the Cubs, when he went 11-11 with a 4.31 ERA. He rehabbed with the Indians last year, and will try to catch on again this year. He'll be 33-years old this May.

Rauch came up in 2002 and threw 27 2/3 innings, but blew out his shoulder. He hasn't been the same since, though his stuff was never overpowering to begin with. He basically relied on his freak-show-style height (he's been listed as tall as 6-foot-11) to keep hitters from picking up on his delivery. No dice anymore. He was dealt to Montreal last year, and might emerge this spring at the back end of their rotation.

Barcelo did have tremendous stuff before he tore his labium, but hasn't recovered from the loss of velocity. His best showing in the majors was 2000 when he went 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 39 innings, 22 games and one start. He came from the Giants in the White Flag trade, and he's back there now trying to catch a break.

Wright won 14 games in 2002, despite being below-average in his 196.3 innings. Just more than 100 innings later, he had blown out his elbow AND his shoulder. He had surgery on the elbow last summer, but was released by the Sox this winter. Sounds like the end of the line for Wright.

Flameouts: Mike Caruso, Joe Crede, Aaron Myette, Joe Borchard, Corwin Malone, Scott Ruffcorn + Casualties
In the span of a year and a half, Caruso went from being an A-ball player that was the key prospect in the White Flag trade, to third place in the Rookie of the Year balloting in 1998. Just 20-years-old when he made his debut, Caruso batted .308 with six triples, 22 doubles and 22 stolen bases.

But it was too much too soon for Caruso, who had never developed much plate discipline or defensive prowess in the minors. Despite more free passes in his sophomore season, he only walked to first base 20 times. His batting average slid all the way to .250 as he commited 24 errors in the field, raising his two-year total to 59 boots. His range afield slid as well.

Before the 2000 season, the Sox picked up Jose Valentin, to whom Caruso would lose his job. Only 23-years old at the end of that season, he was released by the Sox that next winter. Caruso has been in several organizations, but has only resurfaced in the big leagues for 20 at-bats with the Royals in 2002. He'll only be 28 this spring, so if he's still playing, someone might give him a shot. It's unlikely he'll do anything with it. Unless he gets in again, his last game was Aug. 9 2002.

In the early 90s, when it seemed like the Sox were churning out one good pitcher a year from their minor leagues, Ruffcorn seemed like the heir to the legacy of Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Alvarez and pre-blowout Bere. Never able to command the strike zone, he instead became the next to follow in the footsteps of Rodney Bolton.

Ruffcorn walked a batter an inning over his career, which consisted of 70 1/3 innings. While also giving up 86 hits, he had a career ERA of more than 8.50. His most sucessful season, if it can be termed a success, was the 39 2/3 innings he tossed for Philadelphia in 1997, during which he posted a career-best 7.71 ERA while striking out 33 and walking 37. He was 27-years old when he tossed his last game on Aug. 17 of that year.

Back when Myette was coming up with the Sox, the local sports writers wondered if Myette would be able to continue wearing his trademark eye black once he reached the big leagues. Now clinging to his baseball job, that's the least of anyone's concern. He did get in five times for Cincinnati last season, but his ML ERA is still 8.16, which his 4 1/3 inning in 2004 did not lower. Myette will only be 27 this season, so he could still make a career of it as a reliever. But even that might be asking a lot at this point.

Borchard, after getting the biggest amatuer signing bonus in Sox history, still can't make contact. His serviceable numbers at AAA haven't translated at all to the ML level in almost 300 at-bats, in which he's been struck out 89 times.

Fair or not, he'll always be compared to Jeremy Reed because it was Reed that was dealt for Freddy Garcia last year. They're two different players, and maybe Sox GM Kenny Williams is right when he believes Borchard has more upside. After all, Reed will never hit for power. And if Borchard could gain a little plate discipline, he'd be a monster.

It's not working out that way. And even if you give Borchard extra-credit for not being a full-time baseball player until 2000, you still have to face the fact that he's 26-years-old and running out of time to be any kind of a big-league player.

Malone was balleyhooed as starter after he put together a nice season in 2001. A reliever before, a starter's workload didn't agree with him. He hasn't ever been the same since that great year, and will be lucky to carve out any kind of a career.

Why is Crede here? Because after four years of being ranked on BA's list, he's turned into a good-glove, absolutely no-hit third baseman. After a wait that seemed like an eternity, Sox fans expected more. Crede turns 27 next month, and with Josh Fields coming up behind him, this might be his last chance to produce. He'll have to if the Sox are going to contend in 2005.

At Least You Said Hello: Jeff Abbott, Chris Snopek
Snopek got a chance at third base in 1997 after Ventura suffered a gruesome leg injury in spring training. He flopped, pretty badly, hitting ..218 with an OPS of .582 in almost 300 at-bats. After spending the next season splitting time with Sox both White and Red, as a utility infielder, he's bounced around the minors. Snopek's last ML game was Sept. 27, 1998. He's currently 34-years-old.

Abbott popped a dozen home runs for the Sox in only 244 at-bats back in 1998. He batted .279, but because of only nine walks, reached base at an anemic .298 clip. Traded to the Marlins for Julio Ramirez (who, incidentally, was ranked right behind Magglio Ordonez in BA's 1998 prospect list), Abbott was last seen getting locked in a bathroom during a game in which he was supposed to be playing for a Brewers minor league affiliate. His last ML game was Sept. 29, 2001. Abbott will be 33-years-old in August of this year.

Where Are They Now?: Larry Thomas, Mike Robertson, Jimmy Hurst, Johnny Ruffin, Matt Ginter, Robert Ellis
Ginter is with the Mets, and while he might be a serviceable reliver, it hardly merits inclusion any higher in our little hierarchy.

Robertson poked his head out in the majors in 1996 for the Sox, when he got seven at-bats in six games. He collected eight hits in 58 ML at-bats over three seasons with Chicago, Philadelphia and Arizona. His last game was for the Diamondbacks on June 26, 1998.

The second-best Thomas in a Sox uniform during the 90s, Larry came up for 13 2/3 innings in 1995. He had a nice season in 1996 as a left-handed specialist, posting a 3.23 ERA in 30 2/3 innings spread across 57 appearances. He tossed fewer than four ML innings after that, and his last game was May 25, 1997, when he was 27-years-old.

Hurst appeared in 13 games for 1997 Tigers, a team that won 79 games, thus making it possibly one of the most respectable teams Detroit has fielded since the last time the franchise finished over .500 (1993). That was it for Hurst, who turned 33 last week. Happy birthday, Jimmy.

Ruffin became a footnote to the Sox' great 1993 season when he was dealt to Cincinnati as part of the Tim Belcher trade. A 21-year-old reliever at the time, Ruffin went 2-1 with a pair of saves and a 3.58 ERA in 37 innings the rest of that season. He followed that with a great season in 1994, when he had a 3.04 ERA and went 7-2 in 70 innings over 51 appearances.

The workload in that strike-shortened season must have taken it's toll, because while he pitched well in 1995, he only tossed 13 innings (in which he punched-out 11 batters). He threw 63 innings in 1996 for the Reds, but 37 walks and 10 home runs helped push his ERA to 5.49.

Ruffin didn't turn up in the majors again until 2000 with Arizona, where he gave up nine runs -- all earned -- in nine innings. He threw less than four innings for the Marlins the next year, and his last game was Aug. 2, 2001, just six days shy of the 8-year anniversary of his ML debut. He'll turn 34 this year.

Ellis was traded to the Angels for Pat Borders on July 27, 1996, and on Sept. 12 of that year he made his ML debut. He disapeared for four seasons before resurfacing in 2001 with Arizona. Always very hittable, he's given up 138 hits in 118 ML innings, spread out over four seasons. Ellis has also walked 48. It doesn't look like he'll get to add to those totals. His last game was Aug. 16, 2003 for the pitching-desperate Rangers.

Too Soon To Tell: Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Josh Fields, Tadahito Iguchi, Kris Honel
You could argue the merits of putting a guy like Iguchi on lists like this, but predecessors in the foreign-free-agent market like Jose Contreras have made it, so we'll play by BA's rules. We'll find out about Iguchi pretty soon. This could be a make-or-break year for Honel to prove he's a real prospect. The other guys we'll probably have to wait a couple years.