While trolling a White Sox chat room, I saw an interesting suggestion: The White Sox are a “Jekyll-and-Hyde” team because after scoring a ton of runs one game, the offense goes in the tank the next.
This is undoubtedly the product of the Pale Hose beating the Angels 13-6 on Saturday and losing to that same Anaheim team the next night 11-0.
For fun, I thought I’d see if this is true: if the Sox are particularly inept at scoring runs in games following offensive explosions.
First, let me explain that my operational definition of an offensive explosion is 10+ runs in a game. The Sox have scored in double figures 21 times this year.
Game After: 5.2 runs per game
Season Avg: 5.35 runs per game
Not much of a difference there. The runs scored after 10+ offensive nights is marginally lower than the season average, but after you consider that it’s those 10+ games that are the statistical outliers that bring the season average up, it makes sense that taking those games out of the mix would lower the average.
So the Sox are not a Jekyll and Hyde team. It only seems that way to Sox fans when they’re losing.
Monday, September 13, 2004
Monday, August 30, 2004
Garland finds himself pitching for spot in '05 rotation
After Sunday’s 9-0 drubbing by the Indians, it became apparent that Jon Garland is giving the Sox more questions than answers.
The 24-year-old right-hander was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. A former first-round pick with the Cubs in 1997, the Sox acquired him at the trade deadline the following year for reliever Matt Karchner.
Though that deal was lambasted as foolish for the Cubs and then-GM Ed Lynch from the moment the ink dried on the paperwork, two things should be noted. The first is that the Cubs have twice made the playoffs since: in 1998, the same year of the trade, and again in 2003.
Though Karchner wasn’t around for the second playoff run, and his alleged contributions to the first were suspect at best, they Cubs seem to be fine without Garland.
The other thing of importance, of course, is that even if Garland were with the Cubs still, he wouldn’t be able to crack their starting rotation. Not behind Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Clement and Greg Maddux.
Obviously, if Garland were in the Cubs plans, they probably wouldn’t still have those other five guys. So let me point out, I’m not trying to re-write history.
What the Sox need to do as they author their future, is to decide whether Garland will be a part of it.
Garland raced through the minors with the Sox, getting a call in June of 2000 as Kip Wells struggled as the fifth starter. Garland didn’t do much better that season, as the Sox felt they also needed to try Rocky Biddle, Sean Lowe, Lorenzo Barcelo, and even brought in the ghastly corpse of Ken Hill to start a game.
To be fair, Barcelo and Biddle were legitimate prospects at the time. The Sox also gave a then-21-year-old Mark Buherle five starts that season. But Garland, despite an ERA under 3.00 at Charlotte early that season, wasn’t ready and was getting what amounted to on-the-job training.
This is what Garland has done since…
Year G GS ERA W-L K/9 K/BB IP
2001 35 16 3.69 6-7 4.69 1.11 117
2002 33 33 4.58 12-12 5.23 1.35 192.2
2003 32 32 4.51 12-13 5.27 1.46 191.2
2004 27 27 4.91 9-10 4.60 1.50 176
Garland, despite epitomizing the phrase “league average,” has been very reliable in terms of health and giving the Sox lots of innings. That’s always a plus for a pitcher that’s been in the majors since turning 20.
However, other than improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio, Garland hasn’t really progressed in any category since his mid-2000 call-up.
He does have the stuff, mixing a low-90s fastball with a sinker that’s forever being compared to the pitch Kevin Brown has used to chew through the majors for most of his career.
But Brown, in his good years, always had higher strikeout rates. For his career he’s struck out 6.63 per nine innings, compared to 4.98 for Garland.
Of course, Brown also didn’t pitch a full season in the majors until he was 24. Garland is pitching in his fourth full season and won’t turn 25 until September 27 of this year. So Garland could still put it together and have a very good Kevin Brown-type career.
Then again, he could be the next Jeff Suppan, where the Royals thought with a little more command he could be the next Greg Maddux. Though the Garland-to-Brown comparisons aren’t as laughable as that, it illustrates the point.
Next year, really for the first time, money comes into the picture for the Sox and their decision about whether to keep Garland. The righty will go to arbitration, and because of his innings and modest double-digit win totals (surely he’ll win one more this year) in each of the past three years, he’ll definitely get a raise from the current $2.3 million he’s making this season to the $4-5 million range for next year.
Now that is a lot of money to pay for fourth or fifth starter. Which is what the other guys in front of Garland, and his production to date, dictate his role to be.
Chicago might be inclined to pay that much because it could be potentially embarrassing for Garland to shovel off somewhere for the league minimum and have a great season, or two, or three… or a great career.
But the Sox also have to think about what they could do with that money. They could gamble on Garland, which with his strikeout rates doesn’t look like a great bet so far, or they could use the money they’d save on Garland and Jose Valentin ($5 million this year) and sign a proven pitcher like Matt Clement.
When Garland was young and cheap, it was a no-brainer. But now that he’s expensive, it muddies the picture. And if the Sox had shown a little restraint back in 2000, it might not be an issue now.
But it is, and that means Garland is auditioning for his own job next season. And he’s going to have to do better than he did on Sunday if he’s going to hang on to it.
The 24-year-old right-hander was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. A former first-round pick with the Cubs in 1997, the Sox acquired him at the trade deadline the following year for reliever Matt Karchner.
Though that deal was lambasted as foolish for the Cubs and then-GM Ed Lynch from the moment the ink dried on the paperwork, two things should be noted. The first is that the Cubs have twice made the playoffs since: in 1998, the same year of the trade, and again in 2003.
Though Karchner wasn’t around for the second playoff run, and his alleged contributions to the first were suspect at best, they Cubs seem to be fine without Garland.
The other thing of importance, of course, is that even if Garland were with the Cubs still, he wouldn’t be able to crack their starting rotation. Not behind Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Clement and Greg Maddux.
Obviously, if Garland were in the Cubs plans, they probably wouldn’t still have those other five guys. So let me point out, I’m not trying to re-write history.
What the Sox need to do as they author their future, is to decide whether Garland will be a part of it.
Garland raced through the minors with the Sox, getting a call in June of 2000 as Kip Wells struggled as the fifth starter. Garland didn’t do much better that season, as the Sox felt they also needed to try Rocky Biddle, Sean Lowe, Lorenzo Barcelo, and even brought in the ghastly corpse of Ken Hill to start a game.
To be fair, Barcelo and Biddle were legitimate prospects at the time. The Sox also gave a then-21-year-old Mark Buherle five starts that season. But Garland, despite an ERA under 3.00 at Charlotte early that season, wasn’t ready and was getting what amounted to on-the-job training.
This is what Garland has done since…
Year G GS ERA W-L K/9 K/BB IP
2001 35 16 3.69 6-7 4.69 1.11 117
2002 33 33 4.58 12-12 5.23 1.35 192.2
2003 32 32 4.51 12-13 5.27 1.46 191.2
2004 27 27 4.91 9-10 4.60 1.50 176
Garland, despite epitomizing the phrase “league average,” has been very reliable in terms of health and giving the Sox lots of innings. That’s always a plus for a pitcher that’s been in the majors since turning 20.
However, other than improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio, Garland hasn’t really progressed in any category since his mid-2000 call-up.
He does have the stuff, mixing a low-90s fastball with a sinker that’s forever being compared to the pitch Kevin Brown has used to chew through the majors for most of his career.
But Brown, in his good years, always had higher strikeout rates. For his career he’s struck out 6.63 per nine innings, compared to 4.98 for Garland.
Of course, Brown also didn’t pitch a full season in the majors until he was 24. Garland is pitching in his fourth full season and won’t turn 25 until September 27 of this year. So Garland could still put it together and have a very good Kevin Brown-type career.
Then again, he could be the next Jeff Suppan, where the Royals thought with a little more command he could be the next Greg Maddux. Though the Garland-to-Brown comparisons aren’t as laughable as that, it illustrates the point.
Next year, really for the first time, money comes into the picture for the Sox and their decision about whether to keep Garland. The righty will go to arbitration, and because of his innings and modest double-digit win totals (surely he’ll win one more this year) in each of the past three years, he’ll definitely get a raise from the current $2.3 million he’s making this season to the $4-5 million range for next year.
Now that is a lot of money to pay for fourth or fifth starter. Which is what the other guys in front of Garland, and his production to date, dictate his role to be.
Chicago might be inclined to pay that much because it could be potentially embarrassing for Garland to shovel off somewhere for the league minimum and have a great season, or two, or three… or a great career.
But the Sox also have to think about what they could do with that money. They could gamble on Garland, which with his strikeout rates doesn’t look like a great bet so far, or they could use the money they’d save on Garland and Jose Valentin ($5 million this year) and sign a proven pitcher like Matt Clement.
When Garland was young and cheap, it was a no-brainer. But now that he’s expensive, it muddies the picture. And if the Sox had shown a little restraint back in 2000, it might not be an issue now.
But it is, and that means Garland is auditioning for his own job next season. And he’s going to have to do better than he did on Sunday if he’s going to hang on to it.
Friday, August 27, 2004
Sox wisely scratch Garcia from Friday start
Give the Sox some credit for not being delusional about their postseason chances.
Chicago and Cleveland both enter tonight’s game eight games back of the Twins. Less than a month ago, it looked like both teams would try to battle to the wire with Minnesota.
What a difference a month makes.
The Indians lost nine straight games, and the Sox have been scuffling ever since Frank Thomas exited the lineup with a season-ending foot injury. Both teams are under .500. Now all that’s left is the ugly battle for the pride of finishing second in the craptastic AL Central.
But pride does come before the fall, as something biblical would remind us, and when nominal Sox ace Freddy Garcia felt a twinge in his forearm, the Pale Hose thought better than to let him go out and risk further injury.
Unlike the NFL, there’s no value in losing and getting a higher draft pick: So many first-rounders in baseball’s amateur draft are busts, you’re really only gaining the privilege of shelling out a bigger bonus.
Keeping the anchor of next year’s rotation healthy is a must. Protecting your recent 3-year, $27-million dollar investment is a necessity. Finishing ahead of the Indians, who will struggle to finish .500, well, it just isn’t.
Mark Buherle 4.02 ERA
Freddy Garcia 4.79 ERA
Jose Contreras 3.98 ERA
Those are your top three starting pitchers in ’05. Add in good free agent with the money that would have gone to Magglio Ordonez (it would probably take less than $14 million to lure Matt Clement to the south side), and maybe keep Jon Garland at the back of the rotation, and that’s not too bad. Especially when the Twins are throwing Carlos Silva and Terry Mullholland out there.
Better to take the lumps now than wait until next season to worry about who would fill Garcia’s spot.
Chicago and Cleveland both enter tonight’s game eight games back of the Twins. Less than a month ago, it looked like both teams would try to battle to the wire with Minnesota.
What a difference a month makes.
The Indians lost nine straight games, and the Sox have been scuffling ever since Frank Thomas exited the lineup with a season-ending foot injury. Both teams are under .500. Now all that’s left is the ugly battle for the pride of finishing second in the craptastic AL Central.
But pride does come before the fall, as something biblical would remind us, and when nominal Sox ace Freddy Garcia felt a twinge in his forearm, the Pale Hose thought better than to let him go out and risk further injury.
Unlike the NFL, there’s no value in losing and getting a higher draft pick: So many first-rounders in baseball’s amateur draft are busts, you’re really only gaining the privilege of shelling out a bigger bonus.
Keeping the anchor of next year’s rotation healthy is a must. Protecting your recent 3-year, $27-million dollar investment is a necessity. Finishing ahead of the Indians, who will struggle to finish .500, well, it just isn’t.
Mark Buherle 4.02 ERA
Freddy Garcia 4.79 ERA
Jose Contreras 3.98 ERA
Those are your top three starting pitchers in ’05. Add in good free agent with the money that would have gone to Magglio Ordonez (it would probably take less than $14 million to lure Matt Clement to the south side), and maybe keep Jon Garland at the back of the rotation, and that’s not too bad. Especially when the Twins are throwing Carlos Silva and Terry Mullholland out there.
Better to take the lumps now than wait until next season to worry about who would fill Garcia’s spot.
Sunday, August 22, 2004
Sad season over for sad Sox fans
I generally stay away from emotional posts because reading the feeling-laden posts that dominate other blogs, I believe they don’t offer any genuine insight.
That said, there’s no escaping it today. If the Sox lose, they’ll fall below .500 and could slide to eight games back in the standings. The season is over.
Instead of worrying about calculating postseason odds or down-the-stretch match-ups, I’ll be spending the rest of the year focusing on what shape the Sox roster will take next year.
Some players that will be playing for jobs next year…
Ben Davis
Jon Garland
Jose Valentin
Ross Gload
Carl Everett
Timo Perez
The performance of these guys down the stretch will in part determine if they’ll be wearing Sox uniforms next year.
Here’s to next year.
Wednesday, August 18, 2004
Sox need to make up games by beating the weakings
Last night’s 11-8 loss to Detroit, with none other than nominal ace Freddy Garcia on the hill, looks like it could be the beginning of the end.
With Minnesota keeping its five-game lead with a win against the Yankees, the Sox are looking at having to win or split every series from now until the end of the season if they want to win the AL Central.
Even that could be optimistic, because it assumes Minnesota will play .500 ball the rest of the way, and that Cleveland doesn’t match the Sox game-for-game.
Chicago does have two things going for it. The first is that Minnesota will play a tough schedule, with most of their games against the Royals and Tigers already a thing of the past.
The second advantage is that while the Sox finish the season by playing eight games against Kansas City and three against Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota will face off against each other in seven of their last 10 games.
Still, if the Sox even want to stay alive in the last two weeks of the season, they’ll probably need to climb to within three games the division leader by Sept. 23. That could happen with the Sox playing a lot of lousy teams down the stretch.
But that could be a tall order when a team like Detroit is kicking around your ace.
With Minnesota keeping its five-game lead with a win against the Yankees, the Sox are looking at having to win or split every series from now until the end of the season if they want to win the AL Central.
Even that could be optimistic, because it assumes Minnesota will play .500 ball the rest of the way, and that Cleveland doesn’t match the Sox game-for-game.
Chicago does have two things going for it. The first is that Minnesota will play a tough schedule, with most of their games against the Royals and Tigers already a thing of the past.
The second advantage is that while the Sox finish the season by playing eight games against Kansas City and three against Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota will face off against each other in seven of their last 10 games.
Still, if the Sox even want to stay alive in the last two weeks of the season, they’ll probably need to climb to within three games the division leader by Sept. 23. That could happen with the Sox playing a lot of lousy teams down the stretch.
But that could be a tall order when a team like Detroit is kicking around your ace.
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
Sox claim injured Escobar on waivers from Tribe
The White Sox claimed 25-year-old outfielder Alex Escobar on waivers Tuesday. Escobar, out for the year with a broken foot, obviously won’t be helping the Sox much this season.
Escobar was once the top prospect in the Mets’ minor league system before being traded to Cleveland as part of the Roberto Alomar deal. Returning from a knee injury that cost him all of the 2002 season, Escobar hit .251/.296/.472 at AAA Buffalo and .273/.324/.444 in 28 games with the big club last year.
Although Escobar was hitting only .211/.318/.309 in 46 games and 152 at-bats for the Indians this season, and has missed almost half of his previous six seasons to injuries, this is probably a good pick-up for the Sox.
Escobar can hit for power, still has a good arm and can still play all three outfield positions. That means he can at least good fourth outfielder, which means he can put Timo Perez out of work. (That's a good thing.)
But that’s the least of what Escobar can do. Though his superstar potential probably evaporated after his knee injury and before he went to Cleveland, Escobar could still have a late-starting Jose Cruz Jr. type of career. Here is a look at what Cruz has done.
Age Batting Line
23 .248/.315/.499
24 .253/.354/.403
25 .241/.358/.433
26 .242/.323/.466
27 .274/.326/.530
28 .245/.317/.438
29 .250/.366/.414
Cruz at age 23, 27 and 28 has a similar profile to what Escobar has done with the Indians – higher slugging percentages (but nothing unreal) and lower batting and on-base averages. Cruz has also had seasons where he’s gotten on base more, which he’s doing again this year with a .237/.351/.439.
Looking at Escobar’s numbers this year, with an OBP more than 100 points better than his batting average, makes you think he could have some years like Cruz at age 24, 25, 26, 29 and 30.
Of course, Escobar will have to stay healthy to make that happen. So far, that’s been a problem.
But in terms of qualifying the risk against the potential payoff, the Sox really can’t lose.
If Escobar gets hurt again, or just plain sucks rocks, all it cost Chicago was the price of a waiver claim and maybe a temporary spot on the 40-man roster.
If Escobar does grow up into the next Jose Cruz Jr., well, that’s not a superstar, but that’s a solid player the Sox don’t have to spend big bucks on through free agency or give up big prospects for should the need arise. (It did, after all, come up at this year’s trade deadline that the Sox were looking at Cruz…)
It's hard not to see how this is a smart move.
Escobar was once the top prospect in the Mets’ minor league system before being traded to Cleveland as part of the Roberto Alomar deal. Returning from a knee injury that cost him all of the 2002 season, Escobar hit .251/.296/.472 at AAA Buffalo and .273/.324/.444 in 28 games with the big club last year.
Although Escobar was hitting only .211/.318/.309 in 46 games and 152 at-bats for the Indians this season, and has missed almost half of his previous six seasons to injuries, this is probably a good pick-up for the Sox.
Escobar can hit for power, still has a good arm and can still play all three outfield positions. That means he can at least good fourth outfielder, which means he can put Timo Perez out of work. (That's a good thing.)
But that’s the least of what Escobar can do. Though his superstar potential probably evaporated after his knee injury and before he went to Cleveland, Escobar could still have a late-starting Jose Cruz Jr. type of career. Here is a look at what Cruz has done.
Age Batting Line
23 .248/.315/.499
24 .253/.354/.403
25 .241/.358/.433
26 .242/.323/.466
27 .274/.326/.530
28 .245/.317/.438
29 .250/.366/.414
Cruz at age 23, 27 and 28 has a similar profile to what Escobar has done with the Indians – higher slugging percentages (but nothing unreal) and lower batting and on-base averages. Cruz has also had seasons where he’s gotten on base more, which he’s doing again this year with a .237/.351/.439.
Looking at Escobar’s numbers this year, with an OBP more than 100 points better than his batting average, makes you think he could have some years like Cruz at age 24, 25, 26, 29 and 30.
Of course, Escobar will have to stay healthy to make that happen. So far, that’s been a problem.
But in terms of qualifying the risk against the potential payoff, the Sox really can’t lose.
If Escobar gets hurt again, or just plain sucks rocks, all it cost Chicago was the price of a waiver claim and maybe a temporary spot on the 40-man roster.
If Escobar does grow up into the next Jose Cruz Jr., well, that’s not a superstar, but that’s a solid player the Sox don’t have to spend big bucks on through free agency or give up big prospects for should the need arise. (It did, after all, come up at this year’s trade deadline that the Sox were looking at Cruz…)
It's hard not to see how this is a smart move.
Monday, August 16, 2004
Alomar deal makes little sense for struggling Sox
The Sox had some more déjà vu all over again when they picked up Roberto Alomar. After getting on base at a .382 clip and slugging .473 with Arizona in 38 games and 110 at-bats, the thinking was that he would give the lineup someone that could get on base and spell the slumping Joe Crede at third base.
Well, Alomar has played seven games since coming back to the South side, and his line of .125/.120/.250 (a BA higher than his OBP for crissakes!!! Take a walk, maybe!!!) is looking pretty shabby.
For all of us armchair GMs out there, no degree of clairvoyance should have been necessary to see this kind of s*** would hit the fan.
Here are Alomar’s numbers the last three years
2001 .336 .415 .541
2002 .266 .331 .376
2003 .258 .333 .349
This is what you would call falling off the cliff. And lest you think I’ve forgotten about Alomar’s defense, let me point out that I am thinking about it –- and how it’s also gotten progressively worse.
Give Indians GM Mark Shapiro credit for knowing when to jump ship on the USS Robbie. After three incredible years in Cleveland, Shapiro shipped Alomar and his $8-million-a-year salary for Matt Lawton and Alex Escobar.
Granted, Escobar was released by the Tribe just last week after a foot injury ended his year, capping two and a half injury-marred seasons. But Escobar was still a top prospect at the time. Shapiro also loses points for deciding to overpay Lawton (four years, more than $25 million dollars), but Lawton is currently part of a good Cleveland offense that could power its way to a division title.
But back to Alomar.
After killing the Mets, as well as fantasy baseball teams numbering close to a million, with a putrid line in 2002, Alomar was again scuffling with a .262/.336/.357 line when Williams picked him up in June for a package of quasi-prospects that included former first-round pick Royce Ring.
Alomar didn’t hit any better in Chicago, hitting .262/.336/.357 in the last 67 games. Not only did he prove he was washed up on the Sox dime, but after the season demanded more money that the $3 million per year the Sox offered to pay.
Turns out that would have been good money. Instead Alomar went to Arizona for about a million bucks. Much to the benefit of the Sox, now not saddled with rich contract for a guy that’s finished.
In any event, the theory that Alomar just needed the cliched "change-of-scenery" was also proven false.
So why the rehash?
Beats me. Though I am no supporter of Kelly Dransfeldt, who currently toils for the Sox’ AAA team (.264 with 5 HR, 15 doubles and 14 walks in 250+ ABs there) it’s hard to imagine him being much worse than Alomar. And if you need a utility infielder, at least Dransfeldt plays shortstop… more credibly than Alomar is playing any position these days.
Alomar, a switch hitter, can bat lefty (Dransfeldt is strictly a righty), and the Sox could use more balance on the left side of the plate. But if you suck from both sides of the plate, what does it matter?
So I guess there is no rhyme or reason to this deal, other than the whole “shake-up-a-struggling team” mentality. I guess I just thought a shake-up would mean making a real improvement instead of just making a lot of noise.
If there is a bright side to this, it's that Chicago didn't have to give up much of real value. Because right now, Alomar is pretty worthless.Thursday, August 12, 2004
Williams gambling on Contreras to be cornerstone
Almost two weeks ago, the White Sox traded one struggling 32-year-old pitcher for another struggling 32-year-old pitcher. Esteban Loaiza, the hurler they gave up, will be a free agent at the end of the year. Jose Contreras, is signed for two more years at about $8 million per.
Sox GM Kenny Williams paid lip service to the notion that this deal will help the Sox now and in the future, so lets take a look.
The Here And Now…
Player ERA K WHIP IP
Loaiza 5.01 91 1.45 152.2
Contreras 5.17 94 1.34 109.2
This includes a pair of starts for each pitcher with his new respective team. Contreras is walking more guys, but with his strikeout rate he’s making Loaiza look like Kirk Rueter. And lack of strikeouts is probably why Loaiza has given up 170 hits this year.
Loaiza and Contreras are both giving up the gopherball (allowing 26 and 23 HRs, respectively). With U.S. Cellular Field playing like Coors Field-lite, the extra walks could really hurt Contreras. But for Loaiza, letting hitters put the ball in play could be a bad idea in front of a porous Yankee defense. Their numbers going forward could be a wash.
So who is better right now? Well, there’s not really much of a difference.
The Next Two Months…
Contreras, so far, is making Kenny Williams look pretty bright. He’s won both of his starts, has a 1.93 ERA and has struck out 12 against only two walks. Loaiza, meanwhile, has been tapped for 10 runs (9 earned) in a win and a loss for the Yankees. He’s struck out eight and walked five.
The difference isn’t really in the competition either. Contreras got to feast on the Royals’ AAA team, but still managed to shut down the high-scoring Indians. Loaiza was touched for five runs by both the A’s and the Blue Jays.
Conventional analysts have mentioned that Contreras seems to feast off bad teams while getting crushed by good teams. I don’t see any evidence of that, but if there’s any truth to it, then watch out. The Sox get to see a lot of Royals and Tigers between now and the end of the season.
Loazia, for his part, has pretty much sucked against everyone since mid-June, and was every bit as inconsistent as the Cuban before that. We’ve already looked at Esteban’s numbers, so we won’t rehash it again. But Loaiza was lucky to have an ERA under 5.00.
Who makes the biggest impact for his new team is probably not an answerable question. It depends on which Contreras shows up and how much mileage is left in Loaiza’s arm. They could pitch the same and Contreras could have better numbers due to weaker competition.
Next Year And Beyond…
The money in this deal works like this: The Sox will pay Loaiza for the rest of this season and the Yankees will do the same for Contreras, with the Cuban due $8 million in 2005 and $9 million in 2006. The Yankees will kick in $1 million each year. Loaiza will be a free agent at the end of this year.
The newspapers (the Sun Times and the Tribune) reported that in free agency, Loaiza is looking for a deal that will pay him similar money to what Contreras is making. I doubt that, since he’s spent the last two months getting his ass kicked around, but let’s play along.
Who would you rather have locked in for the next two years as $7.5 million per year (the real cost to the Sox for taking Contreras)?
Well, with the K-rates being what they are (7.71/9 IP for Contreras and 5.81 for Loaiza), Contreras is probably the better bet to pitch well the next couple of years. You can factor in intangible stuff if you like, but with the notion that Contreras will pitch better out of the New York spotlight, his being reunited with his family and also getting to face weaker competition, the Cuban wins that battle, too.
But that brings us to a different question: Why would you want either of these guys for that kind of money?
Loaiza’s big 2003 season is looking more and more like a fluke. His back around his career numbers this year, but on top of that the velocity on his pitches is down. That means Loaiza could be hurt or overworked. His arm could fall off at any minute. He’s definitely not worth that money.
But with Contreras’ spotty record, it’s hard to say he’s worth it either. In just more than 180 career innings, he has a 4.43 ERA with 166 strikeouts and 77 walks. Decent, but not great. And not worth $8 million a year.
Admittedly, the numbers don’t always tell the whole story. It was the White Sox scouts that thought Loaiza would be a good pickup, despite middling numbers. A cut fastball later, Esteban turned in a great season for the Sox. Contreras could be another guy that needs a change of scenery to help get adjusted to pitching in the major leagues.
Nonetheless, when you go on the word of your scouts, you’re taking a gamble. And for the Sox, this will be an expensive gamble. Not just in terms of dollars, but also in opportunity cost.
Handing over $8 million to Contreras means there’s less money in the budget to resign Magglio Ordonez, if Williams feels inclined to do so. It also means less money that could be used to sign a free agent pitcher that could potentially be better than Contreras. After all, how much more than that will Matt Clement be able to get in free agency? And he’s a guy that scouts and performance analysts can both love.
This move could signal the end of Ordonez’ run in Chicago (not necessarily a bad thing). Or it could mean Carlos Lee will find a new home in the offseason (again, not necessarily bad). But bringing Contreras onboard means Williams can’t keep all his pieces and add payroll. And depending on how tight the purse strings are this winter, he might have to dump without getting much back in return.
Williams has never been afraid to gamble. Right now he’s gambling that Contreras will be able to help the Sox stay in the pennant chase, and help the team over the next two years.
He’d better have a good idea what he’s doing by rolling the dice on this deal, because if it backfires, it could keep the Sox from contending with resurgent Tiger and Indians teams, as well as the perennially loaded Twins, for the next two years. If the Sox don’t look to contend, they’ll probably have to rebuild. And that rebuilding could start with a new GM.
Back in action
My readership of zero will be excited to know that I’m back from an extended cross-country trip. Now it’s time for updates on the Pale Hose’s fortunes. Issues I will address in the next few days.
--The Esteban Loaiza-Jose Contreras hosing with the Yankees
--Roberto F***ing Alomar?!? Again?!??
--The Sox recent skid that has left them in third place
--The Sox’ miserable offense
--Playoffs or next year?
I have some things to attend to before I can write about all of this, but things will trickle in as I examine them and put pen to paper (or my fingers to the keyboard, if you will).
Friday, July 30, 2004
Kendall would be a good fit for struggling Sox
One name that hasn’t been bandied about during this year's trade-deadline buildup like it has been in the past is that of Pirates catcher Jason Kendall.
Almost from the moment Kendall signed a six-year, $60 million contract in November of 2000, the Pirates have been trying to unload him. This albatross is part of the legacy of former Pirates GM Cam Bonifay.
Kendall is obviously overpaid, having signed his deal as player salaries peaked, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a useful player. In fact, he’s a player the White Sox could desperately use.
Kendall is an on-base machine, reaching at a .392 clip this season through Friday’s games. His OBP last year was .399 and his career OBP is .386.
Kendall will hit for decent doubles power, but very little home run power. But it’s not power that Chicago’s lineup is severely lacking. It’s his ability to reach base.
The 30-year-old Pittsburgh receiver could slot nicely at the top of the Sox’ lineup while fixing the hole created behind the plate when Miguel Olivo was sent to Seattle in the Garcia trade.
The downside is that Kendall is owed some hefty change for the next three years ($9.5 million next year, $10.5 million in 2006, $12.5 in 2007, plus about $4.5 in deferred money), but the Sox might be able to swing that deal for four reasons.
The first is that with the boost in attendance, and the likelihood Magglio Ordonez will not make $14 million from the Sox (because his injury kills his market value, or someone else pays him that incredible amount), means the Sox can probably afford it.
The second reason is that the Pirates might be willing to eat some of the salary. It won’t be half the salary, like the Padres insisted the Bucs do when they tried to land Kendall along with Brian Giles last year after the trade deadline, but if it’s a few million each year, that would lessen the financial blow considerably.
The third reason is that because of the big salary, the Sox won’t have to give up big-time prospects like Joe Borchard, Ryan Sweeney or Brian Anderson.
And lastly, the Sox don’t have another catcher in the organization to take over the position for the next three years like Olivo would have done. This would lock in a solid – though overpaid – performer for those three years.
If Kenny Williams isn't already talking to the Pirates, here's hoping he is trying to find some way to inject some sorely needed OBP back into Chicago's lineup.
Almost from the moment Kendall signed a six-year, $60 million contract in November of 2000, the Pirates have been trying to unload him. This albatross is part of the legacy of former Pirates GM Cam Bonifay.
Kendall is obviously overpaid, having signed his deal as player salaries peaked, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a useful player. In fact, he’s a player the White Sox could desperately use.
Kendall is an on-base machine, reaching at a .392 clip this season through Friday’s games. His OBP last year was .399 and his career OBP is .386.
Kendall will hit for decent doubles power, but very little home run power. But it’s not power that Chicago’s lineup is severely lacking. It’s his ability to reach base.
The 30-year-old Pittsburgh receiver could slot nicely at the top of the Sox’ lineup while fixing the hole created behind the plate when Miguel Olivo was sent to Seattle in the Garcia trade.
The downside is that Kendall is owed some hefty change for the next three years ($9.5 million next year, $10.5 million in 2006, $12.5 in 2007, plus about $4.5 in deferred money), but the Sox might be able to swing that deal for four reasons.
The first is that with the boost in attendance, and the likelihood Magglio Ordonez will not make $14 million from the Sox (because his injury kills his market value, or someone else pays him that incredible amount), means the Sox can probably afford it.
The second reason is that the Pirates might be willing to eat some of the salary. It won’t be half the salary, like the Padres insisted the Bucs do when they tried to land Kendall along with Brian Giles last year after the trade deadline, but if it’s a few million each year, that would lessen the financial blow considerably.
The third reason is that because of the big salary, the Sox won’t have to give up big-time prospects like Joe Borchard, Ryan Sweeney or Brian Anderson.
And lastly, the Sox don’t have another catcher in the organization to take over the position for the next three years like Olivo would have done. This would lock in a solid – though overpaid – performer for those three years.
If Kenny Williams isn't already talking to the Pirates, here's hoping he is trying to find some way to inject some sorely needed OBP back into Chicago's lineup.
Still not time for Sox to panic
After the Sox dropped a 5-4 game to the Tigers Friday night, they found themselves still only 4 games behind the Twins, who lost their Friday matchup to Boston 8-2. The Indians beat the Royals 7-6 to climb to within a half game of the Sox.
After losing six straight, these would seem like dire times for Chicago. Compounded with Minnesota going 9-1 its last 10 games, the Sox have lost five games in the standings during that 10-game span.
But it’s still not time to panic.
The last three games in the current Sox skid have all been one-run losses. Given the fluky elements of winning or losing a game by a single run, there’s no reason to throw in the towel.
And there’s no arguing that the last three losses haven’t had a fluky feel. A loss on Wednesday because of poor baserunning. Not many times will two guys get nabbed to lead off an inning. Another on Thursday because of an error late in the game. Jose Valentin, who made the error, usually doesn’t misplay that kind of ball. And then Friday when the winning run was walked in for a walk-off free pass by a usually reliable reliever.
That’s not to say the Sox can continue to play sloppy and expect to walk to a division title. Not with their two most powerful bats on the bench. But this run of bad luck should end soon.
After losing six straight, these would seem like dire times for Chicago. Compounded with Minnesota going 9-1 its last 10 games, the Sox have lost five games in the standings during that 10-game span.
But it’s still not time to panic.
The last three games in the current Sox skid have all been one-run losses. Given the fluky elements of winning or losing a game by a single run, there’s no reason to throw in the towel.
And there’s no arguing that the last three losses haven’t had a fluky feel. A loss on Wednesday because of poor baserunning. Not many times will two guys get nabbed to lead off an inning. Another on Thursday because of an error late in the game. Jose Valentin, who made the error, usually doesn’t misplay that kind of ball. And then Friday when the winning run was walked in for a walk-off free pass by a usually reliable reliever.
That’s not to say the Sox can continue to play sloppy and expect to walk to a division title. Not with their two most powerful bats on the bench. But this run of bad luck should end soon.
Sox should think twice before jumping at Floyd
As the clock ticks closer to this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, the Sox look like they need some offensive help. Enter the Cliff Floyd rumors.
Some sources are reporting that the Mets are interested in Kris Benson from the Pirates, and will trade Ty Wiggington, plus a couple prospects –- one of which will come from the Sox for Cliff Floyd. That prospect is rumored to be Ryan Sweeney.
I don’t know how likely this deal is, because it doesn’t make a lot of sense for either New York or Chicago. The Mets could use another pitcher, but this deal would take a bat out of their lineup, which they can ill-afford to do without a replacement on hand (which they don’t have). And while Floyd could boost a sagging Sox lineup (he’s hitting .285/.357./.498 through Thursday), his contract runs for another two years a $6.5 million per year.
While moving to U.S. Cellular Field could boost Floyd’s stats even higher, this would probably be a poor investment for the Sox. Here’s a look at some of Floyd’s totals over the past few years.
Year AGE OPS Games Played
2000 27 .907 121
2001 28 .968 149
2002 29 .920 146
2003 30 .895 103
2004 31 .855 70 (out of 101)
Before you begin to wonder if playing in Shea Stadium this year and last year are making his overall numbers look bad, I’ll point out that Floyd’s OPS+ -- which takes park factors into account -- for those five years are 130, 150, 152, 143, 146.
The arcing trend suggests that Floyd has hit his peak, and stands to decline further. That’s an important consideration for a team that would have to pick up the last two year of his contract for a total cost of $13 million.
But just as important as the money and level of performance are the health issues that Floyd brings with him. Not once in his career has he played a full schedule, the closest he’s come being 152 games in 1998. That was the only time he’s played as many as 150.
Considering that Floyd has already missed 30 percent of his team’s games this season, and that he’s not getting any younger, could the Sox even count on him to help a lineup already devastated by injuries to its top two hitters?
Now, I don’t think the Sox farm system would be seriously hurt by the loss of Sweeney. He has yet to swing the bat at even the AA level, and like any prospect he probably has as much of a chance at being the next McKay Christiansen as the does of being the next Andy Van Slyke. But Sweeney is highly regarded, and if the Sox deal him for a hitter, it would be nice if they could either get a better hitter, or one without the long-term commitment.
Some sources are reporting that the Mets are interested in Kris Benson from the Pirates, and will trade Ty Wiggington, plus a couple prospects –- one of which will come from the Sox for Cliff Floyd. That prospect is rumored to be Ryan Sweeney.
I don’t know how likely this deal is, because it doesn’t make a lot of sense for either New York or Chicago. The Mets could use another pitcher, but this deal would take a bat out of their lineup, which they can ill-afford to do without a replacement on hand (which they don’t have). And while Floyd could boost a sagging Sox lineup (he’s hitting .285/.357./.498 through Thursday), his contract runs for another two years a $6.5 million per year.
While moving to U.S. Cellular Field could boost Floyd’s stats even higher, this would probably be a poor investment for the Sox. Here’s a look at some of Floyd’s totals over the past few years.
Year AGE OPS Games Played
2000 27 .907 121
2001 28 .968 149
2002 29 .920 146
2003 30 .895 103
2004 31 .855 70 (out of 101)
Before you begin to wonder if playing in Shea Stadium this year and last year are making his overall numbers look bad, I’ll point out that Floyd’s OPS+ -- which takes park factors into account -- for those five years are 130, 150, 152, 143, 146.
The arcing trend suggests that Floyd has hit his peak, and stands to decline further. That’s an important consideration for a team that would have to pick up the last two year of his contract for a total cost of $13 million.
But just as important as the money and level of performance are the health issues that Floyd brings with him. Not once in his career has he played a full schedule, the closest he’s come being 152 games in 1998. That was the only time he’s played as many as 150.
Considering that Floyd has already missed 30 percent of his team’s games this season, and that he’s not getting any younger, could the Sox even count on him to help a lineup already devastated by injuries to its top two hitters?
Now, I don’t think the Sox farm system would be seriously hurt by the loss of Sweeney. He has yet to swing the bat at even the AA level, and like any prospect he probably has as much of a chance at being the next McKay Christiansen as the does of being the next Andy Van Slyke. But Sweeney is highly regarded, and if the Sox deal him for a hitter, it would be nice if they could either get a better hitter, or one without the long-term commitment.
Thursday, July 29, 2004
Sox must take advantage of schedule
After running themselves out of a win in what was eventually a 5-4 loss yesterday, the White Sox sat 3 ½ games behind Minnesota in the AL Central standings. So is that reason to panic?
Well, if you’re the overanxious suicidal-type that believes the Twins will sweep the last six head-to-head games this year with the Pale Hose, then yes. Panic. Go ahead and kill yourself.
But if you take a minute to think about how the Sox and the Twins got to where they are in the standings, the future looks far less bleak.
Opponent Win %
White Sox .503
Twins .471
Minnesota, so far, has had the softest schedule in baseball. In addition to 16 games against the lousy Royals (who are again gunning for a new franchise-worst season) and 15 games against the improved, but hardly good Tigers, the Twins also lucked into a three-game series with Arizona in interleague play.
Though the Twins failed to make headway against the Brewers in their annual home-away series, they still had a better chance to win games than the Sox did against the pitching-rich Cubs.
So, back to what this means for the Sox in terms of making up the 3 ½ game difference. Here’s the winning percentage for the Sox and Twins for their remaining games.
Opponent Win %
White Sox .464 (64 games)
Twins .516 (61 games)
The shoe apparently fits the other foot.
Last year the Twins finished off a three-game sweep of the White Sox on Sept. 18 to open a 3 ½ game lead in the division race. Armed with the league’s softest schedule (.471 Opp Win % for the year), Minnesota coasted to the AL Central title with seven games against the near-historically bad Tigers and a pair against a bad Indians team.
This year it’s Chicago that benefits from a front-loaded schedule. With only one more round against the tough AL West teams, and with the Yankees already in their rearview mirror, the White Sox now get 16 game against Detroit, and 15 against the Royals, who have already unloaded their best player.
Meanwhile, the Twins must play six games against the Yankees, plus two series apiece against Texas and Anaheim – both contending teams looking to load up at this weeks trade deadline.
Moreover, the Twinkies play 13 games against Cleveland. Because the Tribe is only 5 ½ game back in the AL Central race, they won’t be unloading players at the deadline. In fact, the Indians might add a player or two if it fits into their long-term plans.
Before we weary Sox followers get too giddy, lets take inventory of the situation.
Even though the White Sox have a definite scheduling advantage in final third of the season, Chicago still has to take care of business. That means a better than an 11-8 record against Detroit, which cost the Sox the playoffs last year. And for sure better than the 11-8 the Sox did against the Royals.
As long as the Sox don’t blow it against the chumps, they’ll be positioned to overtake the Twins.
Well, if you’re the overanxious suicidal-type that believes the Twins will sweep the last six head-to-head games this year with the Pale Hose, then yes. Panic. Go ahead and kill yourself.
But if you take a minute to think about how the Sox and the Twins got to where they are in the standings, the future looks far less bleak.
Opponent Win %
White Sox .503
Twins .471
Minnesota, so far, has had the softest schedule in baseball. In addition to 16 games against the lousy Royals (who are again gunning for a new franchise-worst season) and 15 games against the improved, but hardly good Tigers, the Twins also lucked into a three-game series with Arizona in interleague play.
Though the Twins failed to make headway against the Brewers in their annual home-away series, they still had a better chance to win games than the Sox did against the pitching-rich Cubs.
So, back to what this means for the Sox in terms of making up the 3 ½ game difference. Here’s the winning percentage for the Sox and Twins for their remaining games.
Opponent Win %
White Sox .464 (64 games)
Twins .516 (61 games)
The shoe apparently fits the other foot.
Last year the Twins finished off a three-game sweep of the White Sox on Sept. 18 to open a 3 ½ game lead in the division race. Armed with the league’s softest schedule (.471 Opp Win % for the year), Minnesota coasted to the AL Central title with seven games against the near-historically bad Tigers and a pair against a bad Indians team.
This year it’s Chicago that benefits from a front-loaded schedule. With only one more round against the tough AL West teams, and with the Yankees already in their rearview mirror, the White Sox now get 16 game against Detroit, and 15 against the Royals, who have already unloaded their best player.
Meanwhile, the Twins must play six games against the Yankees, plus two series apiece against Texas and Anaheim – both contending teams looking to load up at this weeks trade deadline.
Moreover, the Twinkies play 13 games against Cleveland. Because the Tribe is only 5 ½ game back in the AL Central race, they won’t be unloading players at the deadline. In fact, the Indians might add a player or two if it fits into their long-term plans.
Before we weary Sox followers get too giddy, lets take inventory of the situation.
Even though the White Sox have a definite scheduling advantage in final third of the season, Chicago still has to take care of business. That means a better than an 11-8 record against Detroit, which cost the Sox the playoffs last year. And for sure better than the 11-8 the Sox did against the Royals.
As long as the Sox don’t blow it against the chumps, they’ll be positioned to overtake the Twins.
Tuesday, July 27, 2004
Catching up: Misc. Sox notes
After being away a few days, just trying to catch up with a throw-away entry.
With Jose Valentin hitting .183/.255/.366 against left-handers this year, it was surprising to see him batting second in the lineup against one of the better left-handers in the league right now -– Johan Santana.
Valentin didn’t light it up or anything. He went 0-for-4 in Tuesday’s 7-3 loss to the Twins. But that he only struck out once against Minnesota’s power lefty was a surprise. After all, the Royals’ Brian Anderson did sit him down three times on opening day. Anderson isn’t the same pitcher as Santana.
For the second straight night, the Sox disappointed a sellout crowd, but the fact that so many fans were out at the Cell, even on the two half-priced days, is pretty encouraging.
What’s more, the Sox averaged well over 30,000 fans over the weekend when the Tigers came to town. The Cell might not be sold out tonight with the tickets being sold for full price, but I still expect more than 30,000 to show up as the Sox try to hold off the sweep.
Neal Cotts has been terrible lately. Actually he’s been terrible most of the year. He’s walking a lot of guys, giving up home runs and generally getting smacked around. He’s not even pitching very often, which makes you wonder if Chicago has him in its plans, and if those plans include him going back to the rotation ever.
If the Sox need a token lefty in the bullpen to get knocked around, surely Kelly Wunsch can handle that task. Chicago would be better off either having Cotts pitch every fifth day at Charlotte to help prepare him to step into a real major-league role, or using him as a piece of trade bait to land another bat of its weakened lineup.
Carlos Lee, always a streaky hitter, cranked out two bombs tonight –- one against Santana in the seventh inning and another against Joe Roa in the ninth. The Sox will have to hope this current hot streak, where Lee is hitting .381/.438/.881 since the All-Star break, can last until the offense can sort itself out.
With Jose Valentin hitting .183/.255/.366 against left-handers this year, it was surprising to see him batting second in the lineup against one of the better left-handers in the league right now -– Johan Santana.
Valentin didn’t light it up or anything. He went 0-for-4 in Tuesday’s 7-3 loss to the Twins. But that he only struck out once against Minnesota’s power lefty was a surprise. After all, the Royals’ Brian Anderson did sit him down three times on opening day. Anderson isn’t the same pitcher as Santana.
For the second straight night, the Sox disappointed a sellout crowd, but the fact that so many fans were out at the Cell, even on the two half-priced days, is pretty encouraging.
What’s more, the Sox averaged well over 30,000 fans over the weekend when the Tigers came to town. The Cell might not be sold out tonight with the tickets being sold for full price, but I still expect more than 30,000 to show up as the Sox try to hold off the sweep.
Neal Cotts has been terrible lately. Actually he’s been terrible most of the year. He’s walking a lot of guys, giving up home runs and generally getting smacked around. He’s not even pitching very often, which makes you wonder if Chicago has him in its plans, and if those plans include him going back to the rotation ever.
If the Sox need a token lefty in the bullpen to get knocked around, surely Kelly Wunsch can handle that task. Chicago would be better off either having Cotts pitch every fifth day at Charlotte to help prepare him to step into a real major-league role, or using him as a piece of trade bait to land another bat of its weakened lineup.
Carlos Lee, always a streaky hitter, cranked out two bombs tonight –- one against Santana in the seventh inning and another against Joe Roa in the ninth. The Sox will have to hope this current hot streak, where Lee is hitting .381/.438/.881 since the All-Star break, can last until the offense can sort itself out.
Sunday, July 25, 2004
Crede looking for another big second half
Not only did Joe Crede deliver in last night’s 7-6 win against the Tigers, he looked good doing it.
In the seventh inning with the bases laded with no outs, Crede found himself looking at a 0-2 count against Detroit starter Jason Johnson. After battling back to a 3-2 count, Crede punched the ball over the infield and down the line in right field for a double, scoring two runs to cut the White Sox deficit to 6-4.
Later in the ninth inning, after the Sox had tied the game at 6-all, Crede stood in against Tigers closer Ugueth Urbina and was quickly down in the count 0-2. Crede again fought back to a 3-2 count before drilling a game-winning home run to left field.
It was the second at-bat against Urbina that was more impressive.
Not only is Urbina a tougher pitcher in that situation than a tiring Johnson was in the seventh, but Crede also had to lay off pitches that were very, very close to the strike zone. He did lay off, they were called balls and he worked the count back in his favor. Despite Uribina’s more deceptive delivery.
Is this a sign that Joe “Fear” Crede has turned the corner?
Well, Joe did put up a big second half last year. Here are last year’s numbers…
Pre All-Star Break .225/.277/.348
Post All-Star Break .308/.349/.543
That came after coming up after the All-Star Break in 2002 and posting a line of .285/.311/515.
Crede hit .329/.418/.600 in June before slumping to .224/.268/.318 this month. His season totals as of today are .243/.298/.428. Joe could improve the two latter batting lines over the next week.
It’s now fashionable to look at a player’s walk rate to see if he’s finally arrived as a hitter. But Crede has never drawn many walks, averaging a free pass only once every 18 plate appearances. (To give you an idea how few that is, Frank Thomas in his career has walked every 5.84 PAs.)
In good and bad times with the bat, Crede still draws walks at about the same rate.
That isn’t a problem, though, as long as Crede can keep in mind the most fundamental element of hitting: getting your pitch to hit.
If Joe can paste the baseball to the tune of a +.500 slugging percentage, he can be a very valuable player for the Sox, especially considering his stellar glovework at the hot corner. He won’t have the benefit of walks to boost his on-base percentage, but a .500 slugging average combined with a modest .300-.320 on-base percentage can push his overall OPS to over .800, making him better-than-league-average hitter.
So long as his batting eye keeps him from swinging at junk.
Watching Crede sit back and wait for his pitch, not once, but twice, was an encouraging sign that hopefully bodes well for the Sox and their third baseman.
In the seventh inning with the bases laded with no outs, Crede found himself looking at a 0-2 count against Detroit starter Jason Johnson. After battling back to a 3-2 count, Crede punched the ball over the infield and down the line in right field for a double, scoring two runs to cut the White Sox deficit to 6-4.
Later in the ninth inning, after the Sox had tied the game at 6-all, Crede stood in against Tigers closer Ugueth Urbina and was quickly down in the count 0-2. Crede again fought back to a 3-2 count before drilling a game-winning home run to left field.
It was the second at-bat against Urbina that was more impressive.
Not only is Urbina a tougher pitcher in that situation than a tiring Johnson was in the seventh, but Crede also had to lay off pitches that were very, very close to the strike zone. He did lay off, they were called balls and he worked the count back in his favor. Despite Uribina’s more deceptive delivery.
Is this a sign that Joe “Fear” Crede has turned the corner?
Well, Joe did put up a big second half last year. Here are last year’s numbers…
Pre All-Star Break .225/.277/.348
Post All-Star Break .308/.349/.543
That came after coming up after the All-Star Break in 2002 and posting a line of .285/.311/515.
Crede hit .329/.418/.600 in June before slumping to .224/.268/.318 this month. His season totals as of today are .243/.298/.428. Joe could improve the two latter batting lines over the next week.
It’s now fashionable to look at a player’s walk rate to see if he’s finally arrived as a hitter. But Crede has never drawn many walks, averaging a free pass only once every 18 plate appearances. (To give you an idea how few that is, Frank Thomas in his career has walked every 5.84 PAs.)
In good and bad times with the bat, Crede still draws walks at about the same rate.
That isn’t a problem, though, as long as Crede can keep in mind the most fundamental element of hitting: getting your pitch to hit.
If Joe can paste the baseball to the tune of a +.500 slugging percentage, he can be a very valuable player for the Sox, especially considering his stellar glovework at the hot corner. He won’t have the benefit of walks to boost his on-base percentage, but a .500 slugging average combined with a modest .300-.320 on-base percentage can push his overall OPS to over .800, making him better-than-league-average hitter.
So long as his batting eye keeps him from swinging at junk.
Watching Crede sit back and wait for his pitch, not once, but twice, was an encouraging sign that hopefully bodes well for the Sox and their third baseman.
Saturday, July 24, 2004
Lucky Loaiza?
Esteban Loaiza has been struggling, so maybe we should ask why.
Well, it’s pretty simple. He’s not striking guys out like he did last year. That wouldn’t be a problem if he weren’t walking guys and giving up a ton of gopher balls.
Here’s some stats from last year, compared to this year and his career numbers.
K/BB BB/9 HR HR/9 ERA
2003 3.70 2.23 17 0.67 2.90
2004 1.85 2.82 19 1.34 4.79
CAR 2.29 2.54 197 1.10 4.60
Given that his K/BB, BB/9 innings and HR/9 rates area all worse than his career rates, Loaiza is pretty lucky to have an ERA under 5 as of this writing. That’s bad news for Sox fans counting on him to be part of a fearsome three at the top of the rotation.
The good news is that baring injury, Loaiza should at least come back down to his career levels – which won’t help his ERA, but should keep it from climbing higher.
It might just be that the cut fastball that helped Loaiza to a monster season last year just isn’t fooling hitters this year. And maybe he’s not getting it over for a strike. If that’s the case, he’ll need another new pitch if he ever hopes to approximate his last – and only – great season.
Well, it’s pretty simple. He’s not striking guys out like he did last year. That wouldn’t be a problem if he weren’t walking guys and giving up a ton of gopher balls.
Here’s some stats from last year, compared to this year and his career numbers.
K/BB BB/9 HR HR/9 ERA
2003 3.70 2.23 17 0.67 2.90
2004 1.85 2.82 19 1.34 4.79
CAR 2.29 2.54 197 1.10 4.60
Given that his K/BB, BB/9 innings and HR/9 rates area all worse than his career rates, Loaiza is pretty lucky to have an ERA under 5 as of this writing. That’s bad news for Sox fans counting on him to be part of a fearsome three at the top of the rotation.
The good news is that baring injury, Loaiza should at least come back down to his career levels – which won’t help his ERA, but should keep it from climbing higher.
It might just be that the cut fastball that helped Loaiza to a monster season last year just isn’t fooling hitters this year. And maybe he’s not getting it over for a strike. If that’s the case, he’ll need another new pitch if he ever hopes to approximate his last – and only – great season.
Friday, July 23, 2004
Trouble in the outfield
Today’s news that Magglio Ordonez will probably miss the rest of the season is pretty devastating, especially coming on the heels of news that Frank Thomas will be out until September at the earliest. Nonetheless, the Sox will have to try to cobble together some hitting out of the right field and DH spots in the lineup. Here are the suspects…
Carl Everett .375/.524/.563
Timo Perez .256/.307/.354
Willie Harris .273/.361/.319
Joe Borchard .266/.329/.495*
Ross Gload .263/.323/.368
Jaime Burke .327/.353/.429
*Stats at AAA Charlotte
Lets start with the obvious. Everett can play in right or DH, so one of the spots is his. Only natural since the Sox just traded for him.
It would also be obviously silly to throw Burke in at DH for two reasons. The first is he’s playing a bit over his head after hitting only .213/.274/.279 in just over 100 at-bats at Charlotte this year. No, he’s not that bad, but he’s also not that good. The second is that moving him would create a Sandy Alomar-sized hole at catcher, unless anyone really has any faith in Ben Davis.
Harris could play full time in the outfield, but that would mean a trade-off in the infield. Right now the Sox have the luxury of spotting Juan Uribe at shortstop for Jose Valentin against left-handers, and giving Harris and Joe Crede off at second and third, respectively. With the way Valentin hits lefties, and with a bunch of games left against the Royals (3 left-handed starters) and Tigers (2 lefties), that is no small advantage.
Harris should play every day so the Sox can see if his AAA numbers will ever translate into major-league stats, but for now lets pretend like he’s too valuable in the infield.
Perez hasn’t been very good, and outside of his one good year in 2000, which consisted of only 49 at-bats, has never looked like he has the potential to be much more than a fifth outfielder.
It would be nice to say something like “Gload can murder left-handed pitching” or “Gload can hit if he gets regular playing time,” but neither of those statements can be proven. In only nine plate appearances against lefties this year, he has done well, but that defies his usually miserable split against southpaws. And he probably can’t play better with regular playing time.
Borchard has looked pretty overmatched in his short stay in the majors, but has performed OK in the minors. If he’s being more patient at the plate, he could help the lineup. Or he could crash and burn when exposed to real live MLB pitching.
So what did this exercise teach us? Not much, other than the Sox don’t really have a perfect solution on their roster. How about an imperfect solution, though?
Against right-handers, Harris can play center and Rowand can move over to right. It would mean fewer days off for everyone (unless Kelly Dransfeldt gets another call), but it would do two things: It would put the most potent bats in the lineup, and those players have the most potential to be good, full-time players.
But there’s still the problem against lefties. Perez has been fair against right-handers (.276/.318/.381) by his standards at least, but that doesn’t help against lefties when Valentin is riding the pine. Same with Burke’s splits. Gload has been good against lefties, but that looks like a sample-size fluke.
The Sox just might want to give Joe Borchard another call. He doesn’t have big platoon splits, and having him try to get in a groove against the AL Central’s craptastic soft-tossing left-handers (Brian Anderson, etc.) might be the best way to bring him along as a player.
Carl Everett .375/.524/.563
Timo Perez .256/.307/.354
Willie Harris .273/.361/.319
Joe Borchard .266/.329/.495*
Ross Gload .263/.323/.368
Jaime Burke .327/.353/.429
*Stats at AAA Charlotte
Lets start with the obvious. Everett can play in right or DH, so one of the spots is his. Only natural since the Sox just traded for him.
It would also be obviously silly to throw Burke in at DH for two reasons. The first is he’s playing a bit over his head after hitting only .213/.274/.279 in just over 100 at-bats at Charlotte this year. No, he’s not that bad, but he’s also not that good. The second is that moving him would create a Sandy Alomar-sized hole at catcher, unless anyone really has any faith in Ben Davis.
Harris could play full time in the outfield, but that would mean a trade-off in the infield. Right now the Sox have the luxury of spotting Juan Uribe at shortstop for Jose Valentin against left-handers, and giving Harris and Joe Crede off at second and third, respectively. With the way Valentin hits lefties, and with a bunch of games left against the Royals (3 left-handed starters) and Tigers (2 lefties), that is no small advantage.
Harris should play every day so the Sox can see if his AAA numbers will ever translate into major-league stats, but for now lets pretend like he’s too valuable in the infield.
Perez hasn’t been very good, and outside of his one good year in 2000, which consisted of only 49 at-bats, has never looked like he has the potential to be much more than a fifth outfielder.
It would be nice to say something like “Gload can murder left-handed pitching” or “Gload can hit if he gets regular playing time,” but neither of those statements can be proven. In only nine plate appearances against lefties this year, he has done well, but that defies his usually miserable split against southpaws. And he probably can’t play better with regular playing time.
Borchard has looked pretty overmatched in his short stay in the majors, but has performed OK in the minors. If he’s being more patient at the plate, he could help the lineup. Or he could crash and burn when exposed to real live MLB pitching.
So what did this exercise teach us? Not much, other than the Sox don’t really have a perfect solution on their roster. How about an imperfect solution, though?
Against right-handers, Harris can play center and Rowand can move over to right. It would mean fewer days off for everyone (unless Kelly Dransfeldt gets another call), but it would do two things: It would put the most potent bats in the lineup, and those players have the most potential to be good, full-time players.
But there’s still the problem against lefties. Perez has been fair against right-handers (.276/.318/.381) by his standards at least, but that doesn’t help against lefties when Valentin is riding the pine. Same with Burke’s splits. Gload has been good against lefties, but that looks like a sample-size fluke.
The Sox just might want to give Joe Borchard another call. He doesn’t have big platoon splits, and having him try to get in a groove against the AL Central’s craptastic soft-tossing left-handers (Brian Anderson, etc.) might be the best way to bring him along as a player.
Thursday, July 15, 2004
Stunning lack of offense
Sox couldn't get it done against Rich Harden tonight. Harden, who has struggled with his control all season, walked only one White Sox batter. Willie Harris had both of Chicago's free passes Thursday night -- one from Harden and one from Octavio Dotel in the ninth inning.
This is probably exemplary of the problems the Sox are going to have without Frank Thomas in their lineup. Just losing his +.400 OBP is a killer, but to top it off, nobody else really gets on base with comperable efficiency.
Much has been made about the Sox being only a .500 team with Magglio Ordonez out of the lineup, but that's probably more due to a softer schedule early in the season and a hot start by Scott Schonenweis.
No, the real key to the season is going to be how the Sox survive the season without Big Frank batting in the heart of the order.
This is probably exemplary of the problems the Sox are going to have without Frank Thomas in their lineup. Just losing his +.400 OBP is a killer, but to top it off, nobody else really gets on base with comperable efficiency.
Much has been made about the Sox being only a .500 team with Magglio Ordonez out of the lineup, but that's probably more due to a softer schedule early in the season and a hot start by Scott Schonenweis.
No, the real key to the season is going to be how the Sox survive the season without Big Frank batting in the heart of the order.
Wednesday, July 14, 2004
Welcome!
My name is Chris Pummer, and I'm going to give baseball blogging a try. I'll need to fix this template, though. Will this work?
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