Ninth Man Out

Podsednik out (for 6 weeks), Erstad in

2007-01-23T16:12:00.000-08:00

MLB.com is reporting that White Sox left fielder Scott Podsednik will be out for six weeks after groin surgery Tuesday, and that the team is also close to a deal with outfielder Darin Erstad.

Right off the bat, it looks like the Sox are looking for Erstad to compete with Brian Anderson in center field and possibly help Ryan Sweeney cover left field in case Podsednik suffers a setback.

Erstad has hardly been the picture of health. When he hasn’t missed considerable time as he has in three of the past four seasons, he’s battled injuries of the nagging variety that compromise his ability to be a useful player.

Since the Sox are only counting on him to be a de facto fourth outfielder, that’s not a big deal. But there’s one glaring problem: Erstad can’t really hit lefties.

Here’s a look at some of the recent work Sox outfielders have done against southpaws:

Player	OPS	OPS vs. LHP
Podsednik	683	562
Anderson	649	638
Sweeney*	804*	665*
Erstad**	697**	614**
Ozuna	809	827

*=2006 at Charlotte
*=2005

I put Erstad’s 2005 season in the table because he had fewer than 100 at-bats in 2006. You can argue that even a full season is too small of a sample size to mean anything, but these numbers are not out of line with what all of these guys have done in their careers, excepting maybe Sweeney:

Player	Career OPS	Career OPS vs. LHP
Podsednik	720	675
Anderson	642	603
Sweeney	N/A	N/A
Erstad	771	722
Ozuna	703	734

As Erstad and Podsednik have aged, their splits have become more pronounced. Anderson and Sweeney may yet come around to hit lefties better as they both approach their peaks. It appears the Sox are counting on it since only Ozuna can hit lefties. And you can hardly describe him as an “outfielder.”

Even if everyone continues to hit this poorly against lefties, it wouldn’t be a disaster, especially when you consider exceptional left-handed pitching in the American League Central is dragging some of these numbers down. Only Podsednik’s splits are very drastic. While the groin surgery might help him get back on track in the stolen base department, I doubt it will help him at the plate against southpaws, against whom he looked lost through all of 2006.

And that’s the rub. Podsednik is slated to be the starting left fielder. If the Sox were going to bring in an outfielder, ideally it would be a lefty-killer to take away those at-bats from Podsednik.

Erstad, who was once the elite defensive center fielder in the AL, gives the Sox the luxury of letting him take all the at-bats from Anderson should he bomb at the plate again this year. But he doesn’t have the offensive skills to either platoon with Podsednik, or to take over left field outright.

So the long story made short is that this is an OK signing, but not a great one. It gives the Sox some more depth, but doesn’t really solve the offensive problems in either left or center field.

Sox sign some scrubs

2007-01-23T10:29:00.000-08:00

Wiki Gonzalez gets a non-roster invite to White Sox spring training. So do Kenny Kelly and Ryan Bukvich.

The Sox needed some catching depth, and now they have it in Gonzalez, who I think is an improvement on the recently departed Chris Stewart. Gonzalez has always hit well in the minors (812 career OPS), while not carrying that success at the plate with him to the majors (666 OPS). He’ll start out at Charlotte and probably only surface in Chicago if there’s an injury to either A.J. Pierzynski or Toby Hall.

As a bonus, Gonzalez handles left-handed pitching pretty well. So if it’s Hall that goes down, the Sox won’t really miss a beat. Losing Pierzynski would hurt, but that’s true for any team that loses its starting catcher.

Bukvich is the real highlight here, and he will try to push himself into a crowded bullpen picture. He’s another reclamation project for the Sox. Bukvich comes in with solid minor-league credentials, striking out more than 11 guys per nine innings with a 3.19 ERA outside of the Big Show.

Of course, he’s also walked more than five guys per nine over the same 279 career frames. Last season, coming off Tommy John surgery in the Rangers organization, he gave up 44 hits – eight of which went over the fence – in only 35.1 innings at AAA.

Bukvich has also had problems in his brief time in the American League. With the Royals and Rangers, he’s walked almost a man an inning. He’s registered 41 walks against 39 strikeouts. He posted those numbers in 46 innings before his elbow injury.

Before the TJ surgery Bukvich didn’t have a problem with giving up HRs in the minors or his short stint in the big leagues. The strikeouts are still there, so Bukvich still has some upside left. The odds of him being real good are real small. But then again, nobody thought Matt Thornton would be good when he came over from Seattle (including me).

Tell me if you’ve heard this one: The Sox sign an outfielder who used to be a college quarterback.

Kelly is like Joe Borchard-lite – all the physical tools but without the tantalizing power at the plate. While Borchard owns a .474 career minor-league slugging percentage, Kelly sits at .398. Kelly also has the same problem making contact, striking out in almost a quarter of his at-bats just like Borchard. And I’m not aware of any scouting report that indicates Kelly is better in center field.

Simply put, Borchard is a superior player. And if he wasn’t able to stick as a reserve outfielder with the Sox last season, Kelly won’t do it this season. Look for him to share time in Charlotte.

Evaluating the offseason: Big long update

2005-12-14T00:35:00.000-08:00

It’s still a long time before pitchers and catchers report, but if rumors of another big trade just around the corner are true, we might as well get a head start at looking at how White Sox GM Kenny Williams is reshaping his championship roster.

Let’s start with the first and biggest:

Traded Aaron Rowand and two minor league pitchers for Jim Thome:

Knowing that Paul Konerko could be on his way out the door, and that Frank Thomas might not be able to play in 2006, Williams decided it was worth the risk of taking on Thome, who saw his 2005 season abbreviated by injuries.

Some of that risk is mitigated by the fact that Philadelphia is paying almost half of the money owed to the 35-year old slugger. That means he’ll only cost the Sox about $8 million per season just three years after the Phillies gave him a six-year, $75 million contract.

But it’s still a huge risk. Here’s what Thome has done the last few years:

Year	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2002	.445	.677	191
2003	.385	.573	151
2004	.396	.581	148
2005	.360	.352	83

That’s a pretty disturbing trend. But I’m less alarmed for a couple reasons.

The first is that Thome has had OPS+ seasons of 131, 125, 158, 166, 155, 152, 142, 132, 169, 191, 151, 148 and 83 in seasons going back to 1993. There are only two outliers here. The first is the 191 he put up in 2002, his last year in Cleveland and the season that earned him a $75 million payday. The other is his dismal 2005 where injuries halted his streak of excellence.

So while the table above looks like an aging slugger crashing hard from his peak years put up during his prime, 2003-04 was really just a continuation of what could be a Hall-of-Fame career even without the monster ’02 campaign.

And make no mistake about it, Thome is a devastating hitter. His career on-base percentage of .408 is something the Sox could desperately use in their lineup. And even if Thome’s best days are behind him, consider this: in 2005, the aging Thome posted a .360 OBP despite posting only a .207 batting average. The highest OBP on the Sox last year? Konerko’s career-best .375.

In other words, his secondary skill set is still there. So if he can rebound from his injuries and even play as a shadow of himself in his glory years, Thome is an upgrade to the middle of the lineup, where we’ve fortunately seen the last of Carl Everett (.311 OBP).

Of course, there is also the talent the Sox gave up, and that has to figure into the mix as far as how this trade is evaluated.

Aaron Rowand could be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. But I think it’s time to admit that his great hitting year of 2004 was probably an anomaly.

YEAR	OPS
2002	80
2003	104
2004	126
2005	93

That the Sox have a carbon copy of Rowand in Brian N. Anderson ready to take over the job in center makes it an easy decision. Rowand probably won’t get any better with the glove, or with the bat. That’s not to say he’s not still a good player. He is, and his defense in center is a big reason the Sox pitching staff was so successful. But by the same token, his value will never be higher than it is right now. The Sox were wise to cash him in. I hope he’s appreciated in Philadelphia, where he’ll be a great fit playing between Pat Burrell and the defensively overrated Bobby Abreu (Gold Glove or no).

Daniel Haigwood and Gio Gonzalez are a pair of good left-handed pitching prospects. But they’re still only prospects in the same way Corwin Malone was a prospect years ago. It’s a dangerous game to flip everyone in your farm system for the here and now, but with a wealth of minor league pitchers, it’s not a bad idea to capture value from some of them before they become casualties to pitching’s war of attrition.

Re-signed Paul Konerko to a 5-year, $60 million contract:

On the surface, this is too many years and too much money. Nobody would have given Konerko this kind of contract going into 2005, and nobody was really interested in trading for him before either of the last two seasons because his price tag of about $8.5 million per annum was deemed excessive for the type of player he is (an aging first baseman of less-than-spectacular hitting prowess).

Now Konerko is going to make $12 per season. That, my friends, is what a big postseason will do for you.

However, I’m not that down on this signing. Yes, it does sting that it effectively ended Frank Thomas’ career in a White Sox uniform. And yes, Konerko’s performance on the field could never merit this kind of cash (he has a career OPS of .837 and OPS+ of 114 with his prime likely behind him). But there are two reasons why it makes sense for the Sox.

The first is that Konerko will provide a guaranteed quality in 2006 that Thomas just can’t, simply because he should be healthy, and should be able to post a .900 OPS in more than 600 plate appearances. That is important if the Sox hope to mount a serious title defense.

The second reason, which also happens to be tied to the first, is that the Sox really have to hit the ground running in ’06 if they want to capitalize on their success in winning a title by expanding their fan base in and around Chicago.

The Cubs have held a stranglehold over the hearts and minds of most Chicago-area baseball fans. In my opinion, the reasons for this are many. But I think one of the more significant factors has been the availability of Cubs baseball via WGN television for more than a generation.

Cable TV, however, is changing this. Now anyone with basic cable through Comcast in the Chicago area can watch every Cubs and Sox game. The market for baseball fans is there for both teams to exploit, and there’s no more crying foul about one team having a built-in media advantage by merit of its shared ownership with a broadcasting behemoth.

Letting the best hitter from your championship team leave, no matter how weak a distinction that may be, is not a way to capture the attention of casual fans who are known for their fickle affections. You just can’t argue with the guy on the street stuff like performance value vs. opportunity cost for bringing back one of a team’s most popular player.

From a marketing standpoint, it then becomes worthwhile to overpay Konerko a bit beyond what you would normally hand over to a player of his ilk. That, combined with his ability to help the team start strong in 2006, could help the team make inroads to a fan base that could support a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball. That would be worth it, even if the Sox do have to eat the last couple years of the deal.

Traded Damaso Marte for Rob Mackowiak:

This was my favorite move of the offseason, and not just because Mackowiak is an Oak Lawn native.

Let’s start with what the Sox gave up. Marte was pretty much finished with the Sox. He imploded so badly last season that even with his solid overall numbers, even with his history of success dating back to the 2002 season, he was never going to have a role with this Chicago team ever again.

Despite that, Williams was still able to flip the lefty reliever for one of the best utility men in baseball.

Just looking at the numbers, Mackowiak’s .742 career OPS screams that he’s nothing special. But look at how his numbers break down in lefty/righty splits.

Year	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
2003	.714	.800
2004	.418	.784
2005	.690	.732

Mackowiak is stretched when asked to bat 500 times in a season because he has to go up against left-handed pitching, which absolutely kills him. However, he’s a legitimately good hitter against right-handed hurlers.

That’s a good thing, because look at what Sox third baseman Joe Crede has been doing against pitchers the last few years:

	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
2003	.851	.698
2004	.695	.728
2005	.814	.742

Outside of 2004, when Crede was just plain terrible against everyone, the 27-year old has been better against left-handed pitching than he has been against righties.

Now, I’m not suggesting a straight platoon. Crede is still the superior hitter with more room for upside, and he and Mackowiak are worlds apart in the fielding department with Crede taking the advantage. But with Crede’s back necessitating more days off in 2006, getting Mackowiak’s left-handed bat in the lineup against a number of right-handed foes makes for a good combination that can maximize both players’ strengths, and minimize their weaknesses.

But here’s another reason to like this trade. Consider the other bench options the Sox carried around last year. These guys all had more than 100 at-bats:

Player	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pablo Ozuna	.313	.330	.643
Timo Perez	.266	.296	.532
Willie Harris	.333	.314	.647
Chris Widger	.296	.383	.697
Geoff Blum	.296*	.345*	.506*

*Totals from White Sox and Padres

That group is just downright putrid. Should Ozuna’s batting average fall from the .276 he posted in 2005, he instantly becomes a Black Hole of Offensive Death. Timo the Terrible lived up to that moniker. I guess I can’t complain too much about Widger because he still has a little pop in his bat, and even though he’s in Brad Ausmus territory, the Sox aren’t throwing 600 plate appearances at him. Harris can get on base and has some speed, so he has his uses off the bench. But World Series heroics aside, why did we trade for Blum?

The Sox’ biggest weakness of a year ago was the awful bench. Bringing in Mackowiak helps solve part of that problem.

Loaiza lands in Oakland

2005-11-29T23:00:00.000-08:00

Imagine for a few minutes the career path of a B-list television actor. You struggle early in your career, playing bit roles and tooling around comedy clubs but then get your big break as the lead role in a network sitcom.

The show is good enough to last a few seasons, not long enough to land you big residuals once it goes into syndication, but long enough for you to get typecast. So the next thing you know, you’re sitting around Hollywood basements tossing cards around with guys like Dustin Diamond and Nick Lachey, wondering if you can land a spot on some celebrity poker show.

Then after everyone’s written you off, you land a supporting role on a cable TV show, and all of a sudden, you’re cashing paychecks again as a serious actor.

That’s probably pretty close to how Esteban Loaiza’s baseball career has been. Up through age 30, Loaiza bounced from Pittsburgh to Texas to Toronto. Some years he was decent, some years he was pretty terrible.

Then things changed when he landed on with the White Sox in 2003. He picked up a new gimmick (his cut fastball), parlayed that into a career season (154 ERA+ with 207 K in 226 1/3 innings) and looked like he was going to be set.

But that’s when the Sox pulled the plug on his little sitcom, trading him to the Yankees mid-2004. Loaiza imploded in the Bronx and had to settle for a one-year deal with the Nationals going into 2005.

Instead of falling off the table for good, Loaiza came back and leveraged a nice pitcher’s park into a 3.77 ERA. He was again striking guys out (173). And that yeoman-like effort just earned him a 3-year, $21 million contract from the Oakland A’s this week.

As one of my favorite guys to watch with the Sox in recent years, it’s nice to see Loaiza land on his feet. While some have panned the deal he just inked as an albatross for the small-market A’s, I think it will end up looking like a pretty smart move after the dust settles with the other free-agent pitchers this offseason.

Congratulations Esteban.

Sox should move to pick up Cruz

2005-07-28T12:31:00.000-07:00

Shingo Takatsu for Jose Cruz Jr.? That’s a deal I’d make if I were Sox GM Kenny Williams.

Today is the last day the Sox can deal Takatsu before he becomes a free agent, so the timing would be perfect. And the team could definitely use an upgrade on its bench. Cruz, and his ability to handle all three outfield positions, would be a good fit.

And take a look at this cast of characters that manager Ozzie Guillen has been shuffling into the lineup:

Player	AB	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cruz	202	.347	.436	.789
Perez	100	.290	.330	.620
Everett	280	.307	.452	.759
Harris	92	.287	.228	.515
Ozuna	109	.330	.339	.670

Of course Carl Everett has been getting the bulk of his at-bats in the DH spot, but you could argue that Cruz would be an upgrade there, too. That’s pretty sad.

As for the rest of these guys, there’s not much to say that the numbers don’t. Ozuna is a utility infielder, so of course he’s not going to be hitting like a monster. And as Harris and Perez sink lower and lower, it’s beginning to be an open question of whether either guy belongs on the roster.

I suggested the Sox pick up Cruz around this time last year, too, because he always seems to hit for around an .800 OPS, plays great defense in the outfield corners, and can handle center field. He’s the ideal fourth outfielder and upgrades an extraordinarily weak White Sox bench.

Just like a year ago, it’s still a good idea for a team in need of an upgrade. And the price will never be lower.

Trade rumors send up red flags

2005-07-25T23:57:00.000-07:00

Before anyone gets too excited about the prospect of A.J. Burnett landing with the White Sox, lets look at a couple different pitchers:

	IP	K	BB	WHIP	ERA
Pitcher A	132	124	48	1.32	3.48
Pitcher B	119	89	53	1.32	4.38

Pitcher A obviously has a pretty big advantage in strikeout rate, but the difference in walks is almost negligible. The ERAs are obviously different, but here’s a secret: According to ESPN, Pitcher A toils in a ballpark that has a park factor of .898. Pitcher B, meanwhile, plies his craft in a ballpark with a park factor of 1.139.

Despite the better K-rate for pitcher A, with everything else being close to equal, you could probably expect about the same performance from these two guys from now until the end of the season.

If you hadn’t figured it out yet, Pitcher A is Burnett. Pitcher B is our own Jose Contreras.

As of now, Burnett would be a marginal upgrade over Contreras, but if the cost of that modest of an upgrade is Contreras, Damaso Marte and Brandon McCarthy, then it’s probably not worth it.

If the Marlins wanted to trade Burnett straight over for Contreras, that would make a little more sense. Contreras is signed for another season at what almost looks like a bargain-basement price ($7 million, less a million the Yankees are kicking in), and the Marlins are looking for cost certainty going into the future. And they surely won’t be able to afford Burnett next year, who will look to boost his $3.65 million salary into the $10 million per year range.

With Marte getting older and living more dangerously with the walks by the day (his WHIP is 1.65 because he’s walked 21 in just over 29 innings), the Sox could probably live with tossing him into the deal, too. But tossing in McCarthy would be too much.

For starters, McCarthy is hardly fool’s gold when it comes to being a prospect. Despite his 5.17 ERA for Charlotte, he’s still got 94 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings. That’s phenomenal.

He’s not struggling because he’s walking a ton of guys, though that’s what you might expect from a power pitcher. His 1.29 WHIP is also very good. His Achilles’ heel has been his penchant for giving up the gopher ball: he’s yielded 14.

But that’s hardly reason to panic, or to toss him into a trade where the benefits are questionable. His potential isn’t worth just two months of Burnett.

HANDLING THE HOT CORNER

Should third baseman Mike Lowell, and his huge contract, still be a necessary part of a Burnett deal, that would benefit the Sox, right? After all, isn’t Lowell recovering from his slump, posting an .808 OPS in July? And doesn't Joe Crede suck?

Well, don’t look now, but for as disappointing as Crede has been for Sox fans, he’s having as good a month as Lowell. In fact, he’s had two months as good as Lowell:

	April	May	June	July	Total
Lowell	.578	.573	.658	.808	.646
Crede	.824	.494	.871	.820	.741

Now, the same issue of park factors that applies to Contreras and Burnett applies to Lowell and Crede, so in fairness to Mike, he’s probably having a better July than (Not So) Young (Anymore) Joe.

But again, here the numbers are in Crede’s advantage, and adjusting for the park would only give Lowell a slight edge. Crede is still whipping him on the season tallies.

It should also be pointed out that Lowell’s career-high OPS was .880 in 2003. He came close to that again in 2004 with an .870 mark, but that’s the only time he’s been within 50 points of his peak.

So to assume Lowell would be much of an upgrade on offense, you have to have faith that he’s going to bounce back to where he was at the peak of his powers. Does anyone thing the 31-year-old Lowell will do that? It’s probably just as likely as Crede putting together a nice second half, which he did in both 2002 and 2003.

Then consider the fielding prowess of this pair. They have identical .987 fielding percentages, and Lowell has a slightly better Range Factor (.263-.260), but Crede wins going away in Zone Rating (.807-.756).

Then consider the money Lowell is owed, and you really have to hope the Sox aren’t going to be stuck with a deal like this.

So to recap on both fronts, dealing to get A.J. Burnett probably isn’t that great of an idea.

Quick Update

2005-06-11T11:00:00.000-07:00

It's been a long time since I've been able to find the time to write, and the sporadic entries will probably continue at least through the rest of this month. But I have some time right now, so let's catch up on what's happening on the south side.

I think the best way for me to do that is with a little season review and a look forward, position-by-position.

First Base:
Paul Konerko is still struggling with his batting average (.237 through June 10), but as I've mentioned before, he's still getting on base (.349 OBP). I don't think he'll finish the year with an average below .260. In fact, I think he'll eventually hit closer to .300. Once more hits start falling in for him, Konerko will probably lift his team-leading .838 OPS to around .900. No worries here.

Second Base:
Tadahito Iguchi seems to have found his power. After going all of April with only three extra-base hits (all doubles), Iguchi has now cracked five home runs and has sent 17 hits for extra bases, including a pair of triples. He's making adjustments at the plate, and I believe his .869 OPS in May is closer to his ability to than his .729 OPS from April. Even if we have to settle for something in between, his .778 OPS for the year still ranks him among the 10 best second basemen in baseball right now.

Third Base:
After a putrid month of May (.155 BA, .495 OPS... ughh, I feel sick), Joe Crede has been torching everyone to the tune of 1.248 in the first third of June. So pretty much, what you see is what you get -- a streaky hitter that's probably going to finish with an OPS between .725 and .750. That's pretty much the story of Crede's career, which makes him a good candidate to be replaced at the trade deadline. Though I would be surprised if there were a better option available on the market that won't come at a prohibitive cost. Crede is still a middle-of-the pack hitter among third basemen, and let's not forget that he's putting together a better season that Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell or Eric Chavez.

Shortstop:
There's no way around the fact that Juan Uribe has struggled this year. He's playing average defense at short (middle of the pack in Zone Rating, Range Factor and Fielding Pct.), and his bat has been horrible. He hasn't been the Cristian Guzman (.468 OPS) or even Royce Clayton (.581) kind of bad. But he's been bad (.655 OPS). Can he turn it around?

The answer is I don't know, but if he's going to he's going to have to find his power. So far this season, 67 percent of his hits have been singles. Last year only 58 percent of his hits went for one base. That doesn't sound like much, but you're talking about a dozen extra-base hits. That's huge. Especially for a player like Uribe, who's hitting value is almost exclusively tied to his ability to uncork the regular home run.

This poses an interesting problem for Sox GM Kenny Williams. After a big year last year, he inked Uribe to a 3-year deal and everyone expected the 25-year-old shortstop to be present and future of the position. Now Uribe is easily the worst hitter in the Sox lineup. If you're Williams, what do you do? You could go out and get another shortstop, but what does that do to Uribe -- both his production and his attitude -- over the next two year's of his contract? You could sit and wait for Uribe to find his power stroke again. But if it doesn't happen this year, it could sink the team's title hopes.

After popping 23 homers a year ago, it's safe to say Uribe won't come close to that with only four this year. But if he could recapture some of his form from last year, he could be a boost for the Sox down the stretch. At this point, waiting to see if that happens is probably the best option for now.

Catcher:
A.J. Pierzynski has been as good as advertised. His .800 OPS is second-best on the team, and far, far exceeds the suckitude the Sox got from the position the second half of last year. Pierzynski also has nine home runs -- only two away from his career high, and we're not even to the All Star break. We knew he could hit for average, and some even speculated a power spike in the raw numbers because of the way The Cell played as a hitter's park last year. That seems to be the case as seven of his long balls have come at home. Still, the Sox will take that.

But how about Chris Widger? When the Sox decided to go with him as the backup, I bemoaned what I thought was a mistake. I agreed that Ben Davis belonged in Charlotte, but I thought Jamie Burke should have won the backup job since he was also right-handed.

Well, Widger has only hit for a .877 OPS in his 56 at-bats. Yes, that's a small sample. But it's still better than I could have ever dreamed of from a guy that went about five year's between major league home runs.
And what are Burke and Davis doing? Well, Burke is doing what he's always done, which is get on base well for a catcher (.343 through Friday, which is exactly his career average). And Davis is doing what he's always done, which is suck (.590 OPS). I've long been a booster for Davis, arguing that he could still put a career together. But I think I can put that notion to bed, especially now that he's the Sox' fifth-best option behind the plate after Pierzynski, Widger, Burke and Raul Cassanova (.810 OPS at Charlotte).

So anyway, my apologies to Mr. Widger. Please keep up the good work. And &$%# you Ben Davis.

Center Field:
Aaron Rowand is getting over his rough start. His .620 OPS in April gave way to a .858 mark in May and an .890 pace so far in June. Rowand's current .796 OPS is almost identical to what he did the first two months of last season (.775). I don't think we can count on him mashing to the tune of a .1000+ mark like he did in June, July and August of last year, but with his superb defense, he doesn't have to do that to be valuable for the Sox.

Right Field:
Nobody started the season colder than Jermaine Dye. His .517 OPS in April had Sox fans screaming for him to lose his job. Then something funny happened: he started to really hit. Dye has his OPS up to .786 after a good May (.933) and an even better June so far (1.048). He's even got 10 home runs now.

That doesn't mean Sox fans should be entirely happy. His stats are just beginning to even out to his career levels, which aren't that great. Outside of the .951 mark he posted for the Royals in 2000, Dye has pretty much been around .800 for the rest of his career. That's acceptable, but hardly stellar. The bright side is that Dye hits better against lefties than he does righties, so a decent left-handed bat can spell him against tougher right-handed pitching. So that at least covers some of his weakness.

Left Field:
Scott Posednik has exceeded the wildest expectations of many more analytical observers. Many predicted an on-base percentage close to .300 with his typically paltry slugging. That may come to be the reality as we get into the dog days of summer, but for now Posednik has his OBP above .350 while wreaking havoc on the basepaths. He's already swiped 31 bases against nine caught stealing.

Some would say that his .688 OPS makes all the stolen bags worthless. I'm not one of those people. Posednik has value for two reasons. First, he's not just another right-handed slugger. He gives the Sox another way to score runs. Maybe not as many runs, but still a different way.

The second reason is that I think stolen bases, and the threat of a stolen base, are underrated by the stathead community. Especially when you have a guy like Posednik. Everyone knows he's going for it, including the pitcher. I makes the defense move around, opening holes for more base hits for the batter at the plate when he's on. When a pitcher throws out to the catcher, it puts the hitter into a hitter's count. And it is distracting for the pitcher.

Now, I know none of those things can be quantified, so I won't try to make a case that Posednik is some kind of MVP or something. But he does give the Sox another dimension and he does have value that doesn't show up in OPS, OBP, SLG or those other stats we use as a quick guide to a player's worth. The Posednik experiment is working out OK.

designated Hitter:
Carl Everett has been pretty mediocre (.747 OPS), mostly because his on-base percentage has been lousy (.317). It's encouraging that he has as many walks this year as he had all of last year (16), and that puts him on pace for what he averages in the free-pass department in his good years. However, his good years are also marked by batting averages near or above .300. That means his .263 averages has to improve. And we know we can't count on that.

What we can count on is awesomeness from Frank Thomas. The Big Hurt has crushed the ball in his 14 at-bats since coming off the DL. Microscopic sample size yes, but we know from his track record that this is what Frank Thomas is.

Much has been made of the alleged job controversy between Thomas and Everett, but in my mind there's no question about it: the job belongs to Thomas. Which is fine, because there's another useful role for Everett when we talk about...

The Bench:
I've written in the past about my embarrassing love for Timo Perez, but despite my affections, I am not blinded to the fact that he sucks. I mean really sucks. His .555 is terrible, even with all the built-in excuses about irregular playing time and blah, blah. Add in the fact that he's not real good with the glove, and you have an embarrassingly bad fourth outfielder.

Which is why Carl Everett should be the team's primary fourth outfielder. He should be able to handle center field like he did for the Sox in 2003, and while he wouldn't be a downgrade from Perez with the glove he represents a huge upgrade with the bat. And between resting all three OFs, plus Thomas, he'll get plenty of at-bats still.

Getting Timo off the roster might also let the Sox carry a backup that can play a legitimate first base. I guess that guy would be Ross Gload when he's healthy. His left-handed bat is nice, too. There's no doubt the guy can hit with OPS marks of .853 in the majors last year and 1.042 at Charlotte this year. The only issue is his ability to also play a corner outfield spot with his bum shoulder.

Pablo Ozuna and Willie Harris have both been capable, both showing good on-base ability (.349 for Harris and .377 for Ozuna).

Right now, we can hope Perez gets the ticket to Charlotte once Gload is really to jump back in action. I could happen, specially with Perez making a cool $1 million. Nobody would claim him if the Sox put him on waivers.

The Pitching:
Not much to say other than that it's been great. Sure, every guy has his own issues we could examine, and when I get back into the semblance of a normal routine I'll try to examine all of them. But for right now, almost everyone is throwing well.

I will say one thing right now: Let's not get too excited about Neal Cotts just yet. I like his potential as much as any other Sox fan, which is why I've campaigned for him to go to Charlotte to get more work than he was getting earlier in the year. He's throwing strikes his last few times out, but he's still only tossed 22 innings. We need more evidence than that to see if he's really turned a corner.

That concludes my two cents worth of opinions for now. I'll still be caught up in work and travel until at least July 4, so I hope nobody expect prolific posting from me until after then.

White Sox 5, Cubs 1

2005-05-21T07:53:00.000-07:00

Posts have been in short supply here, mostly because I've been short on time. I've still been watching a lot of White Sox games, but I haven't had the time to watch and write about them. That's still the case, but for something as big as the Cubs-Sox series, I just had to make time.

Despite my life-long loyalties to the South Side, I had never hated the Cubs with the fiery passion that burns inside of most White Sox fans. That is, I never did until the winter of 2003-04.

The Sox had at least been fringe contenders for the better part of the previous dozen seasons. They had very good teams in 1992 and 1993, and a team many felt was World Series-bound before the 1994 season was cut short. After scuffling in '95, the Sox hung around in '96 and '97, even blowing the Wild Card the last month of the season. That mercifully cost then-Sox manager Terry Bevington his job.

After a modest rebuilding project from 1998-99, the Sox were back with a division title in 2000. That followed a string of second-place finishes that continues today.

While coming thisclose so many times has been frustrating, Sox fans have at least been able to enjoy a team that hopes to contend almost every year.

Not so for the Cubs.

After a division title in 1989, the Cubs finished fifth, fourth, fourth, fourth, fifth, third, fourth and fifth from 1990-97.

Behind Sammy Sosa's historic 1998 season, as well as brilliant pitching from some rookie named Kerry Wood, the Cubs would overcome a Brant Brown gaffe that cost them the last game of the season by beating the Giants in a one-game playoff to win the Wild Card.

The Cubbies would appear overmatched on paper in their first-round matchup against Atlanta. That still looked to be the case when the game was moved from paper to grass with the Braves taking Game 1 by a 7-1 score .

But then in Game 2, Kevin Tapani, who switched directly from the South Side to the North Side two years earlier, pitched brilliantly. He took a 1-0 lead into the final inning and looked like he would tie the series at one game apiece. With Wood going in Game 3, Cub fans had reason to be hopeful.

That was before Javy Lopez erased the shutout, and most of the Cubs playoff hopes with a ninth-inning blast. The Braves scored one more off Terry Mulholland in the 10th and went on to sweep the series with a 6-2 win the Game 3. Greg Maddux was the winning pitcher for Atlanta.

The Cubs stayed in the race the next season until going into a full-out death spiral that began with a sweep at the hands of the Sox in June of that year.

So outside of one surprising season in the sun, the Cubs had been a non-factor in the pennant race for almost 15 years.

Then came 2003.

Behind a quartet of aces, led by Wood and second-year hurler Mark Prior, the Cubs pitched their way into an NL Central title and the postseason. They again faced the Braves, only this time came out on top 3-2 in the series -- even beating Maddux once along the way.

Anyone paying attention to Chicago baseball knows what happened next: The Cubs come within a few outs of the World Series, at least until an Alex Gonzalez error and Dusty Baker's decision to leave Prior in too long derail their chances. Oh, and some Bartman guy caught a foul ball.

Despite throwing Wood and Prior in games 6 and 7, the Cubs never recovered. But that winter, they did reload for 2004. Maddux, who left the Cubs with some acrimony back in 1993, just as his run of dominance was beginning, returned as the fifth(!) starter. Derek Lee, who helped sink the Cubs in the '03 postseason took over at first base. Aramis Ramirez would be around for a whole season. LaTroy Hawkins would give the team a reliable setup man. Todd Walker would give it depth at second base. And everyone else would be back, healthy and happy.

At some point that winter, confidence turned into arrogance on the North Side. Wrigleyville was flooded with irrational exuberance. And the smugness of of Cubs fans became unbearable.

I couldn't go anywhere online without being flamed by a Cubs fan. I couldn't go to work (I'm a sportwriter) with hearing about how the Cubs would soon end their World Series drought. And the White Sox, they'd say... just a bunch of jokers that keep trading for Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett.

Cubs fans, who had seemed until then to be just happy-go-lucky baseball watchers that enjoyed the beer and the sun more than the baseball, suddenly seemed full of themselves. That so many wanted to use their fleeting moment to take digs at my favorite team, the long-suffering but unloved White Sox, really forged the fires of hate that still burns in my heart for all of Cubdom.

So when the Cubs choked down the stretch in 2004, blowing their final series against -- you guessed it -- the Atlanta Braves, who weren't playing for anything at that point, I took more than my share of pleasure from it.

Needless to say, I enjoyed Friday's 5-1 White Sox win against the Cubs. What they say is right. When it comes to rooting for one team or the other, there's no middle ground and no gray area. You are a Sox fan or a Cubs fan. Period. And I know which side I'm on.

So here are some observations from the first game of the 2004 intra-city showdown at Wrigley. I didn't have time to dig up a lot of numbers, so my apologies if this reads like a Peter Gammons column -- though I'd be lucky to write as well.

GAME NOTES:

-- In the bottom of the fifth, when Henry Blanco hit a shot down the third-base line, did anyone else think that Joe Crede sure took his time throwing out the Cubs catcher? Not a criticism, in fact, good wrongfully (Not So) Young Joe to know he had plenty of time with a good throw. It just seemed like he fielded the ball, looked at the umpire rule it a fare ball, looked at the ball, and THEN set and threw. Still got Blanco by a long way.

-- The Sox were good, and also a little lucky in the fifth inning when they scored three runs off Greg Maddux. A skillful bunt by Scott Posednik, and solid singles by Tadahito Iguchi and A.J. Pierzynski were supplemented by a seeing-eye single by Paul Konerko. Oh, yea, and Joe Crede drilled one out.

-- When Freddy Garcia stands in at the plate, he looks comfortable like he can hit -- until he swings. Granted, he put down a sac bunt and watched Aramis Ramirez make plays on balls in the next two at-bats, but everything else looks awkward. It's just when he swings, it looks like his hitting mechanics fall apart.

I will say this: Even though Garcia flailed at some stuff a good hitter shouldn't swing at, at least he made some contact, fouled off some balls and saw some additional pitches -- particularly in his third at-bat. And that's worth something. Isn't that why Billy Beane is paying Scott Hatteberg so much money?

Maybe the question should be, how much should you expect from a pitcher's at-bats? Not every pitcher can handle lumber like Mike Hampton, so I guess you take the positives where you can find them.

-- It was only modestly amusing to flip back-and-forth between WGN and Comcast. On my cable system, Comcast has a better picture quality. That would make it an easy call as to which channel to watch, except for the fact that it's the Cubs broadcast team with the call on CSN.

-- I know a lot of people have complaints about Hawk and D.J., but Len Kasper and Bob Brenly are just unlistenable. At least today Brenly was gone. Jeez they suck.
As a baseball fan, I like to catch Cubs games when they're on the tube. But I've been doing that less this season, in part because my time has been scarce, but also because I don't like listening to Kasper and Brenly.

Besides the fact that the Cubs booth is more like a talk show with a baseball game going on in the background, I also can't help by think this Kasper and Brenly tread softly on these Cubs. I guess since the last guy got fired for being to critical, you can't blame them. But do they have to be this weak?

-- Garcia pitched well. Yes, he still nibbled the plate a little too much. Yes, maybe he should have thrown first-pitch fastballs more often. But he still made it through seven innings with just over 100 pitches. That's economical or him.

Though, it should be noted that he faced a Cubs lineup stocked in the last three spots by Neifi Perez, Henry Blanco and a pitcher. Oh, and Todd Hollandsworth batted second for Dusty Baker's team today. That's not good... it's bad and ugly.

-- Iguchi really blew it on the fly ball Ramirez skied into foul territory in the seventh inning. A-Ram ended up on second (man is he not fast) on the error and would later score an unearned run.

I was listening to the Hawk/D.J. team at the time, and Jackson went into his, "Boy, I've been there when you just lose that ball," but it didn't look like that to me. It looked like after making the long run to get to the spot the ball was hit, Iguchi was just to nonchalant when it came to seeing the ball into the glove. It happens. I just wish we didn't have to make excuses when it does.

POW:
This is worth a mention. Posednik is getting on base at a .391 clip and is still on pace for a career-best 83 walks.

On Deck:
Jose Contreras against Carlos Zambrano. Hopefully we'll have lots of fun numbers to talk about after this one.

The beat goes on for the Southsiders

2005-05-14T13:11:00.000-07:00

Since the last time your faithful narrator checked in, the White Sox finished off a sweep of the Blue Jays, dropped a couple bad losses to the Devil Rays of all teams, and ensured themselves at least a split with the AL East-leading Orioles by taking the first two games of a four-game set with the birds from Baltimore.

The Sox have now won seven straight at home and overall are 11-2 in their last 13 games. And for the most part, the basic formula has remained the same. Let the starter work deep into the game, let the offense scratch out a few runs and then let the bullpen nail it down.

The only time the bullpen didn't nail it down was in the 7-6 loss to the Devil Rays. But that by itself hardly constitutes a meltdown. In fact, since the last time I've written about it, the bullpen has remained rock-solid.

Dustin Hermanson has yet to allow a run in 18 1/3 innings and appears to have emerged as the de facto closer. But as good as he's been with a .76 WHIP, Cliff Politte has been even better with a .68 WHIP and 17 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings. Politte's ERA now stands at 1.35.

Damaso Marte has also been pitching well with a 1.93 ERA, despite a 1.71 WHIP. He's been walking a tightrope with 12 walks in 14 innings, but he's helped bail himself out with 16 strikeouts. Something will have to give, though. Either Marte tops walking guys or his ERA will skyrocket.

The other two big pieces -- Shingo Takatsu and Luis Vizcaino are both scuffling with ERAs of 7.00 or higher. But there are plenty of reasons to like the work they've been giving the Sox lately.
Both survived disasterous outings against Cleveland on April 7. In fact, of the 20 earned runs the pair has given up this season, nine were against the Tribe that afternoon. That must hurt, especially for Vizcaino, who was left hung out to dry because he was the last man in the bullpen.

I know it's a slippery slope when you begin saying things like "without such-and-such outings, pitcher X has X.XX ERA." But without the Cleveland game, Takatsu's ERA is 3.38 and Vizcaino's is 4.60.

Takatsu has struck out 12 men per 9IP while walking a handful and allowing his share of hits. Vizcaino has not been striking guys out (5.63 K/9), but has avoided home runs (1 allowed this year). So when you look at their peripherals, those adjusted ERAs sound about right for what they're getting done on the mound. Not enough to qualify them as studs, but even with the ass-busting ERAs they're still touting, they haven't been bad options for the Sox.

I guess the other shoe could still drop, as we're only a month and a half into the season. Small sample sizes are still an issue, but short of overuse, even when the clock strikes mid-season, it's hard to see the whole bullpen turning into a collection of pitching pumpkins.

So lets talk about last night's game.

GAME NOTES:

Taking the ball:
Mark Buehrle tossed another eight innings last night, putting him on pace to throw more than 270 innings. The last Sox pitcher to throw more than 250 innings in a season was Alex Fernandez, who had 258 in 1996. The last time a White Sox pitcher tossed more than 270 innings was 1975, when Jim Kaat and Wilbur Wood both crushed that mark with 303 2/3 and 293 1/3 innings, respectively.
There's still a lot of season left, and I'd be surprised if Buehrle managed to throw that many innings. But I think at this point we can also be surprised if he doesn't throw more than 220.

Something else interesting of note is that out of the last 10 non-strike-shortened seasons, the only years the White Sox didn't have a left-handed pitcher toss 200 innings were 2000, when Mike Sirotka managed only 197 because of injuries down the stretch, and in 1997, when Wilson Alvarez threw 145 before being traded to the Giants. Alvaraz still finished the year with 200+ innings.

Not out of the woods yet:
Paul Konerko went 2-for-3 and keyed Friday's Sox win with a broken-bat single that scored two runs in the seventh inning. It was his first multi-hit game since last weekend when he drilled two home runs against Toronto and only his second since a pair of hits against the Twins on April 19.
To read some of the game stories, it seems like some scribes are implying that the bloop hit was just what Konerko needs to, "get things going his way again." I don't really know how much more likely his is to go on a tear than he was after he broke through with a couple bombs against the Blue Jays, though. The hits just fall when they fall, you know?

There is one comforting fact in this slump. During Konerko's titanic nosedive of 2003, he wouldn't get his on-base percentage up above .300 for good until a 2-for-4 night against the Yankees on August 28. Part of that had to do with how far Paulie had fallen off early in the season, but it also had to do with a lousy approach at the plate. Konerko took a lot of pitches, but instead of drawing walks and getting on base even when the balls weren't falling right for him, he'd get into a pitcher's count and never seemed able to battle back.

This time it's been different. This season, while Konerko is still hovering around the Mendoza line with his .208 batting average, his OBP has not dipped below .300 since April 17. In fact, his OBP is still a tolerable .333. That's still not enough on-base production from your first baseman, but for as deep of a slump in which Konerko's been mired, you have to be pleased with that.

What's more, after his disasterous 2003, Konerko bounced back with a huge 2004 in which he drew a career-high 69 walks. This year he's on pace to receive 95 free passes. I think we can easily say that after the first slump, Konerko emerged as a better hitter.

So what does that mean for this year going foward? With nine home runs, he's hurting pitchers when they go after him. And he's taking his walks and not getting himself out on junk out of the strike zone. So I think the hits will eventually start falling and he could have a very big second half. I don't think Friday night was the beginning. I think 2003 was the beginning, and now it's just a matter of waiting for Konerko's luck with balls in play to start evening out.

Designated to do what?:
Willie Harris got the start at DH on Friday. It's not really that unusual. Teams, because of injury or just plain lousy rosters, have to play worse hitters at the spot all the time. And at least Harris is still batting over .300 with a nice .389 OPB. But it's still funny to say, "Now batting, the designated hitter, No. 1 Willie Harris."

Qutting time?:
Possible Hall-of-Famer Rafael Palmeiro has had a tremendous career, and in his prime -- which reached well into his 30s -- was considered one of the most dangerous left-handed hitters in baseball. He had it all with a good batting average, OBP and lots of power.
But right now, he is killing the Orioles.

As laughable as his third Gold Glove award in 1999 was (he played 135 games at DH that year), it was his great defensive rep that landed him that piece of hardward. Though it's been evident on plays like the one he made in the seventh inning Friday that he's been slipping in that department.
That would be ok if he were hitting better. Palmiero is batting .218, and because he's only slugging .333, pitchers don't feel threatened and are going right after him. As a result, he's only got a .295 on-base percentage and is on pace for only 51 walks. That total would be his lowest total since he was a 23-year-old wearing Cubbie blue.

Baltimore's offense has been motoring along, but can still ill afford to have Palmiero get old on them. From www.baseballreference.com, here are Raffy's OPS+ marks the last three years:

2001: 144
2002: 141
2003: 117
2004: 103

That's an alarming trend for a guy that blew out 40 candles on his birthday cake last September.
It's also a pretty good reason why the Orioles, who are already missing Sammy Sosa's bat, probably won't be able to hang with the Red Sox in the AL East race all summer.

On the rise:
That would be the Sox' team OBP, which is up to .325. That's still only good for 22nd in the majors, in between the Cubs (.326) and the Rangers (.323), but considering that only a couple weeks ago the Sox were at .312 and keeping company with teams like the Pirates and the Royals, that's a huge step forward.

So with Konerko and Jermaine Dye still struggling, how have the Sox elevated their OBP? Well in part because...

POW:
... Scott Posednik is sporting a .380 OBP after going 3-for-5 on Friday. The Pod person has already accepted 20 free passes, which is why his current OBP is better than rookie mark of .379, despite his batting average being off more than 50 points between those two seasons (.262 now, as opposed to .314 for Milwaukee in 2003).

Despite a base-stealing slump that saw him get gunned down 3-of-9 times last week, he's still got 18 steals on the season against only five caught stealing. It should also be mentioned that Posednik, along with Rowand and Dye, have been fantastic defenders in the Sox outfield. Posednik and Rowand are both among the top defenders at their position as measured by Zone Rating (Rowand is tops, Posednik is sixth).

Even if you don't like Zone Rating as a way to measure defense, it's hard to say that balls in play given up by the Sox pitching staff haven't been turned into outs.

So while it's still early, and while I was also an early doubter, I have to say that this Posednik experiment is working out pretty well... so far at least.

On deck:
Freddy Garcia will go against Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera has been a strikeout machine, punching out 9.25 per 9 IP. He also walks a few. This should be a fun matchup to watch.

No New Posts

2005-05-11T22:31:00.000-07:00

Due to a heavy workload, I won't be able to post again until this weekend. I apologize to anyone that's been looking for updates the last few days.

Chicago 5, Toronto 3

2005-05-07T11:09:00.000-07:00

The White Sox survived a Timo Perez start in center field to pull out a 5-3 win at Toronto on Friday. A.J. Pierzynski's bloop single scored two runs to make a winner out of Orlando Hernandez, who pitched seven solid, if not spectacular innings.

I mentioned earlier this week that I secretly root for Timo Perez because he bunted for a base hit in a key bases-loaded situation during an important game against the Twins. Not only did he reach base on one of the best bunt plays I've seen the last few years, but he also drove in the tying run (nevermind that the Sox went on to lose the game 5-4).

But it goes deeper than that.

Like I'm sure other baseball fan's do, I pick and choose teams to root for in league opposite of my favorite team's league. Not the same team every year, but whichever squad I latch onto for some reason or another. In 2000 it was the New York Mets.

At first it had nothing to do with Perez. It had more to do with Robin Ventura, who was one of my favorites when he wore a Sox uniform. But there were a lot of interesting dudes on that team: Mike Piazza, who's always seemed like a swell guy whenever he's not coming across as a homophobe; Mr. Hawaiian Puch Benny Agbayani, the kind of career minor leaguer that's fun to root for; Rick Reed, who I like despite his would-be-union-busting past; Turk "99" Wendell; two guys named Bobby Jones; and Rickey Henderson, still in his prime when it came to referring to himself in the third person.

Even some guys I don't like to root for were having decent seasons, like "Operation Shutdown" Derek Bell (101 OPS+) and the mostly useless Lenny Harris (117 OPS+ in 132 at-bats over 76 games).

So I was rooting for the Mets, and when Perez came up and gave them an .809 OPS in 49 at-bats, it was neat. And then in the postseason, he batted .300 in the NLDS and NLCS combined. Especially in the NLCS against the Cardinals, it seemed like he scored every time he got on base. And I guess with seven hits, one walk and eight runs scored, he did.

Moreover, at the time we all thought he some 23-year old. He was young. He had potential. He had some upside for a Mets outfield that was mostly old and lousy.

If Timo's .643 OPS in 2001 didn't kill his prospectdom, then it was completely done in when he aged two extra years the winter before the 2002 season like a lot of other Latin American players.

So things have really stayed unchanged since then. He still sucks with the bat, and he's no great shakes with the glove either. Witness Friday night in Toronto:

In the second inning with two two Blue Jay runs in, Perez charged in and caught a Russ Adams fly ball for the second out. Rather than regroup and at least threaten a throw home, he flipped the ball to second base in an attempt to double off Alex Rios. Rios was safe and the slow-ass Greg Zaun scored from third. Darrin Jackson, calling the game on TV, said the run was likely to score anyway. But I don't think they send Zaun's not-so-fleet-feet if Perez come's up looking to throw home... even with his soft-tossing arm.

Then in the ninth inning, Adams made Perez his puppet again when he hit a ball to center that Perez charged to catch, but didn't come near enough to catching. The ball went past him for a double. It was a play that probably gets made by either Aaron Rowand or Scott Posednik. That might be an unfair comparison since both of those guys are superb defenders. But by comparison Timo looked bad.

So Perez isn't a good hitter and isn't a great defender. So why root for him?
Because he's the underdog. Because there's no reason root against him. Because I'm sure he'd be a nice enough guy if I ever meet him sometime.

Maybe if Timo were stealing time from some young, up-and-coming outfielder becasue of some manager's fetish for his "veteran presence" or some crap like that. That would be a good reason to hate him, to root for him to fail or wish he were somewhere else.

But Perez is the team's fourth outfielder. Once Frank Thomas comes back and Carl Everett
becomes a part-time DH/fourth outfielder, Perez will pretty much be the team's fifth outfielder. If the Sox had a young outfielder in that role, it would be a crime against that player's career.

Perez is now 30-years-old. His upside is gone, so what's left is a guy can at least handle all three outfield positions, has enough power to hit at least the once-in-a-while home run and can bunt well enough to more the runners and steal the occasional base hit on the play. And that's all you really need from a fifth outfielder.

GAME NOTES:

Up and down:
Sox bullpen on Friday: Seven batters faced, six sat down. Nice work again.

Mostly up:
Tadahito Iguchi stayed hot, raising his average to .340 with a 2-for-5 night. After being among the team's underachievers just a couple weeks ago, he's probably playing a bit over his head with that batting average. But his .772 OPS is probably the right neighborhood. In fact, it will probably get a little better as his power comes around.

Busting out?:
Paul Konerko broke an 0-for-26 batting slump with an eighth inning hit. He'd come around to score one of the winning runs.

Konerko is one of my favorite guys on the team, and has been one of the team's best players since coming to the Sox for Mike Cameron before the 1999 season. But compared against what he earns, which is $8.75 million this season, he doesn't provide the team with a tremendous amout of value.

For that reason, I was concerned that he might command an even bigger deal from the Sox as a free agent this winter. I don't know how likely he is to get a much bigger deal after this recent slide. I'm sure he'll rebound and have a nice overall season, but his recent streak brings back images of his prolonged slump to begin the 2003 season. It also cements his reputation for being proned to such slumps because of his high-maintenance mechanics at the plate.

After Paulie smacked 41 home runs last year, it was hard to convince some Sox fans that Konerko was overpaid. But with two bad starts in three years, it's a little easier to do that. I imagine it will also be harder for teams to open up their wallets next winter to hand over something like a 4-year, $40-million deal.

Lets just hope this doesn't end up like past free agent situations for the Sox.

POW:
In five trips to the plate, Posednik went 1-for-4 and walked once. That lifts his OBP to .376. That's not too shabby. Why didn't he get the nod in center? I know manager Ozzie Guillen has to keep Perez fresh enough at the position to be able to use him there once in a while, but if something were to happen to Rowand, I'd assume it would be Scotty because of his great range and speed. So doesn't he need an occasional start there?

On Deck:
It's already happening. Jon Garland allowed a run, but the Sox have scored six with home runs from Juan Uribe, Iguchi and Konerko. That's where the score stands after two innings.

Chicago 2, Royals 1

2005-05-05T22:18:00.000-07:00

Fun game, but no post tonight. I'm getting behind on my real-world responsiblities. But I'll be back at it sometime Saturday morning.

White Sox 4, Royals 2

2005-05-04T22:30:00.000-07:00

The White Sox took home a 4-2 win and became the first team in the majors to reach 20 wins on Wednesday despite their No. 2-through-5 hitters combining to go 1-for-14. Jermaine Dye picked up some of the slack in the six hole with a 2-for-3 night, while A.J. Pierzynski and Joe Crede clouted home runs from the seventh and eighth spots, respectively.

With only six hits and two walks, it’s probably not a game the Sox deserved to win, especially with starter Freddy Garcia walking a tightrope by allowing eight hits and two walks through 6 1/3 innings. But they all count, so they’ll take it.

Maybe the best thing the Royals have going for them is that first baseman Mike Sweeney went 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles and two RBIs, lifting his average to .321. He also leads the majors in doubles with 10.

It’s not the kind of “good thing” for the Royals in that they need him to play better to help them win games. It’s the kind of “good thing” where they need him to play better so they can ship him out of town.

Sweeney is owed $11 million this season, as well as each of the next two years. He’s also due a $1.5 million per year raise if he’s dealt anywhere. What looked like a good deal after 2002, when Sweeney signed for five years and $55 million, is now an albatross.

Because Sweeney has played below his .877 career OPS the last two seasons while also missing more than 50 games each year, he’s not considered a good risk for a contending team looking for long-term help. But if the Royals are resigned to paying off a chunk of the contract, how well Sweeney plays will help determine how much they’re on the hook for.

Putting on a Royals hat for a minute, I don’t think it would be a good idea for the Royals to pay a significant amount just to get rid of Sweeney. He wouldn’t bring much in the way of prospects, and given the Royals other 1B/DH options, they’re better off eating the money and leaving the guy that’s been the face of the franchise out there, even if it amounts to little more than a PR move.

But Royals owner David Glass probably doesn’t see it that way. If he could get by with paying half the contract and sticking league-minimum guys out there like Calvin Pickering, he’d rather do that because he’s still saving almost $20 million bucks over three years. And that’s the Wal-Mart way.

The Sox aren’t looking for a first baseman (imagine for a minute how ultra-Christian Sweeney would get along with Ozzie Guillen swearing in his face), so this really only effects them in that they might get to play an even worse Royals team later on this year.

GAME NOTES:

Why are we here again?:
Apparently, the only purpose Neal Cotts had in Wednesday’s win was to come on in the sixth inning and walk Ruben Gotay. After getting nobody out, he was relieved by Cliff Politte.

I haven’t written a word about Cotts in a while, and that’s because nobody has seen him since April 24. Since back-to-back bad outing against Cleveland raised his ERA to 8.10, he’s brought that back down to 3.86, despite a still scary WHIP of 1.71.

Nothing personal against Cotts, but I still don’t know why he’s with the Sox instead of at Charlotte. Is it really in his best interest to only get sporadic mop-up work? He’s on pace for only 42 innings this year.

More importantly for Sox fans, is it important to waste a roster spot on a guy that’s going to come in for a couple games, not pitch very well, and then not see action again for another week or so?

So once again, here’s a call to let Cotts learn his trade very fifth day for the Knights.

Closing the door:
Dustin Hermanson pitched 1 2/3 innings to pick up his fourth save. Nobody is using the expression “closer by committee,” at least not loudly, but that’s how it’s working out for the Sox. Shingo Takatsu has seven saves and Damaso Marte has one.

I could quibble with some of Guillen’s bullpen decisions, especially ones that involve brining a guy in for only one batter before rotating another guy in, but I think he does deserve some credit for being flexible.

GM Kenny Williams also deserves some credit, too, for giving Guillen a lot of good options. Consider:

-- It was back in spring training of 2002 that he picked up Marte from the Pirates for Matt Guerrier. At the time, some Sox fans complained Williams was giving away yet more pitching prospects to the Pirates (that deal came on the heels of what shall be called the Todd Ritchie Fiasco). Marte has since been signed to a cheap, long-term contract.

-- Politte was brought in before 2004 on a one-year deal with an option for this season. He pitched well and despite the fact that the Sox declined his option, Politte came back on another bargain-basement 1-year, $1 million deal.

-- Takatsu is making $2.5 million this year after making peanuts last year. Despite his 7.04 ERA in this young season, he’s still got a 2.83 career ERA and is 26-for-28 in save opportunities since coming Stateside.

-- Dustin Hermanson signed a 2-year, $5.5 million dollar deal that was ridiculed pretty roundly by baseball pundits. He has yet to be scored on in 13 innings this season.

It’s still early, and especially with relievers we’re talking about small samples sizes, but combined, that foursome has struck out 10.33 batters per 9 innings. So we know the ability is there.

Streaking:
Joe Crede has hit a mini-slump, getting only two hits in his last 16 at-bats, but his home run tonight was encouraging. Paul Konerko is now hitless in his last 22 trips to the dish.

Carl Everett cooled off with an 0-for-4 night, but Jermaine Dye teased us with the idea that he might just come out of his season-long slump with his strong night.

Timo Perez has been slumping since 2001. If not for 49 at-bats with an .802 OPS in 2000, we might call this a career-long slump. Or we might say he sucks.

POW:
Scott Posednik’s on-base percentage is back up to .359 with a hit and a walk in four trips to the plate. He also stole a base and is now 11-for-12 in that department.

A tangent on that though: The generally accepted break-even point for stealing bases is 80 percent, though I guess you could argue that it’s a few percentage points lower because it gets guys in motion and puts more pressure on the defense.

The Sox are now 30-for-40 in stolen bases on the season after three successful attempts on Wednesday, which means at 75 percent, they’re not quite to the point of being effective. But at least they’re not giving away runs.

Around Baseball:
Have the Yankees really given up 28 runs in three games to the Devil Rays? We knew the pitching was going to be so-so with Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting old, plus the high-dollar additions of one-year wonders Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright… but his is just getting ugly. UGLY. Even the fifth-best offense in baseball isn’t bailing that staff out. … The Brewers, once again my pick for surprise team of 2005, bounced the Cubs again tonight. The Cubs have lost four straight and are now looking up at the Brew Crew in the standings. … Barry Bonds out at least two more months. With the Giants playing only .500 ball without him, they’re probably screwed.

On Deck:
Jose Contreras goes against Zach Greinke. This will be fun to watch if for no other reason than the pitcher.

White Sox 5, Royals 4

2005-05-04T09:43:00.000-07:00

Tadahito Iguchi hit his first home run of his major league career and Carl Everett drove home the tying and winning runs in the Sox’ 5-4 win against the Royals on Tuesday.

First of all, is there a worse team in baseball than the Royals?

Royals	RANK
Win-Loss	29
Pythagorean	28
Runs Scored	27
Runs Allowed	26

If not for Pittsburgh and Colorado, it would be a pretty clear case.

But, these are the games the Sox have to win. Much noise has been made about how the Sox have to beat the Twins if they’re going to win the AL Central. But how about beating the Tigers and Royals?

Lets go back to 2003, when the Sox finished four games behind the Twins:

TEAM	RECORD AGAINST
Twins	9-10
Royals	11-8
Tigers	11-8

Now, the Royals were having a surprising season, winning 83 games when most people thought they’d lose 90 going into the year. And the Twins did out-do the Sox by a game.

But only a .579 winning percentage against the Tigers? The 119-loss Tigers that had two in five of their last six to avoid baseball history’s top spot for modern futility?

The Tigers had a .421 winning percentage against the White Sox …. And a .245 winning percentage against everyone else. That’s three games the Sox gave back. Those wins could have made their last series with the Royals that season meaningful.

The larger point is, you have to beat the best teams in the league to prove you can play with them in the post season. But you don’t get to the postseason unless you can clean up against the lousy teams. Which the Sox didn’t do that year.

GAME NOTES:

What hot start?:
Paul Konerko went 0-for-3 and is in danger of his batting average slipping below .200. With his prolific homer output early this season, it’s not like he’s having a stretch as bad as his first half in 2003. But maybe we’re getting to the point where we can think about it.

Konerko’s a good player, but the Sox should be leery of signing him to a big-money, long-term deal.

Can still hit:
While most groaned at the acquisition of Carl Everett when Sox GM Kenny Williams picked him up for the second straight year, it hasn’t worked out badly for the team.

Everett’s .819 OPS is second on the team behind Iguchi’s .833 mark. That’s not great, but think about where the Sox would be without his bat. He’s also shown signs of heating up, with five of his seven walks on the season coming in just the last week. That mean’s he’s not slipping into any hacktasticaly bad habits.

My opinion is that the Sox still overpaid for him by giving up two pitching prospect (though marginal ones) and still taking on all of his salary. But not only has he helped them out so far this year, but his ability to play the outfield will give the Sox some flexibility when Frank Thomas comes back.

POW:
Scott Posednik’s on-base percentage dipped back to .352 after a 1-for-4 evening without any walks. The hit loomed large, however, as he scored the tying run. Not that that’s an excuse for his .619 OPS.

On Deck:
Freddy Garcia (2-1, 2,83) against Runelvys Hernandez (1-3, 5.06) and the Royals. Here’s to winning ugly against the bad teams.

Chicago 8, Detroit 0

2005-05-03T09:10:00.000-07:00

Jon Garland just keeps winning after pitching is second straight shutout Sunday against Detroit. Garland gave up only four hits, struck out six and walked only one.

I don’t know that there’s anything else to say about it. After Sunday’s game, his ERA is a ridiculously low 1.38. His WHIP is a meager 0.79. His batting average against is a crazy-silly .133.

Now, even the most optimistic of Sox fans knows this won’t continue. But we’re all still curious as to whether this is just a hot start for Garland, or if he’s really turned the corner. I think we’ll just have to wait and see.

For what it’s worth, Garland’s season so far reminds me of the season Derek Lowe had with Boston in 2002. There are some parallels between the two, such as both being sinker balers, but beyond that their histories diverge a bit.

Lowe was 29 when he had his monster season, and before that he was primarily a reliever. In fact, he saved 42 games for the Red Sox in 2000. Meanwhile, Garland has been a mainstay in the Sox rotation since moving to that role full-time during the 2001 season.

Here’s a look at what Lowe did in April, and what Garland has done so far.

PLAYER	G	WL	ERA	BAA	WHIP	SO	BB	IP
Lowe	5	4-1	2.04	1.29	.70	22	9	35.3
Garland	5	5-0	1.38	1.33	.79	17	6	39

Both players benefited from insanely low BAAs. Lowe had an edge in striking guys out, but Garland is better in the walks department. But neither guys picked up a ton of punchouts.

This may not be very instructive, but it’s a fun comparison. There’s not really any way to glean what Garland will do based on what Lowe did (though he did finish the season with a 2.58 ERA with a .211 BAA).

Looking at Lowe, however, gives us an obvious example of how flaky batting average can be. When he was hit for .272 in 2003, his ERA jumped to 4.47. When his went all the way up to .299 last season, he was hammered to the tune of a 5.42 ERA.

Garland has been pretty similar in his career, though more consistent with the BAA.

YEAR	BAA	ERA
2000	.292	6.46
2001	.277	3.69
2002	.258	4.58
2003	.260	4.51
2004	.269	4.89
2005	.133	1.38

The only year that defies the correlation between BAA and ERA is 2001, but the difference there is that Garland came out of the bullpen in 19 of his 35 games.

So, pretty much all we know so far is that if Garland can keep from giving up hits, he’ll keep dominating. Big surprise, huh? But not likely. The BAA will go up, so will the ERA. But at least we can dream about a season like Derek Lowe had in '02.

GAME NOTES:

Back-to-Back:
Garland was the first Sox pitcher to throw back-to-back shutouts since Jack McDowell did it in 1991.

Sox fans all know McDowell was a good pitcher, and that he was an innings horse. Starting in 1990, Black Jack had inning totals of 205, 253.7, 260.7, 256.7, 181.7*, 217.7 and 192.0. From 1991 to 1993 he had complete game totals of 15, 13 and 10. He led the league in complete games three times in his career.

He pitched pretty badly for Cleveland that last season in the run of IP listed above, and after that he was pretty much washed up, never pitching more than 76 innings in his next three seasons with ERAs north of 5.00 each year. He was done by 30.

So are the Sox going to burn Jon Garland out? I don’t think they will, not like McDowell was.

I don’t have pitch count totals for McDowell, but what can you say about Garlands? In his five starts, he’s averaged fewer than 100 pitchers (98 to be exact). He had 116 pitches in his first shutout, but he needed only 107 to finish off the Tigers on Sunday. And that was with his six strikeouts.

That’s not to say it won’t happen, though. McDowell was the picture of pitching health, and who though he would break down at 29 after five seasons of taking the ball every fifth day.

Looks like another wait-and-see issue.

Timing is everything:
Timo Perez has only five hits, but has driven in eight runs. For a guy that would have a hard time hitting water if he fell out of a boat (.216 BA/.634 OPS through Monday), that’s pretty good.

Perez drove in three on a pair of hits Sunday, including his second home run.

I would give Perez credit for doing what he can with sporadic playing time, but he’s never hit outside of a half season with Norfolk (AAA Mets) in 2000 (and still only a .906 OPS).

He is what he is, though, and I can sort of understand the fascination with him after that bunt for a base hit he put down against Minnesota last year. You hardcore Sox fans know the one.

POW:
Scott Posednik went 1-for-4 with a walk to again modestly lift his OBP from .354 to .357. Now that he’s got 71 at-bats in the pipe, it’s probably a matter of streaks and slumps that raise and lower him significantly from here. Lets hope general suckitude doesn’t drag him back to last year’s level. That would be bad for the Sox.

On Deck:
Mark Buehrle (3-1, 3.89) will go against Brian Anderson (1-2, 7.54) and the Royals in a battle of left-handers. My mouth is watering thinking about the Sox facing Anderson, so imagine how the Pale Hose hitters feel.

Chicago 4, Detroit 3

2005-05-01T09:33:00.000-07:00

Sox manager's Ozzie Guillen's small ball approach paid off for his team as the Sox were able to rally for three runs in the seventh inning of a 4-3 win against Detroit on Saturday.

After Aaron Rowand led off the inning by getting hit by a pitch, A.J. Pierzyinski and Joe Crede followed with singles, the later scoring Rowand from second and making the score 3-2. Still with no outs, Ozzie Guillen instructed Willie Harris to bunt. Harris was able to execute and moved noted non-speedsters Pierzynski and Crede to second and third. Pierzynski would score on a groundout by Scott Posednik and Tadahito Iguchi singled to center to score Crede. The Sox left the inning with a 4-3 lead.

Let me explain first that I'm all for the big inning. I'm a big proponent of Earl Weaver baseball. But lets face it, Harris wasn't going to hit a three-run home run. Outs are scarce, but here's why I think having Harris bunt was the right call:

Having Harris swing away meant the most likely outcome would have been:
1) A groundout that probably would have turned into a double play, creating two outs.
2) A soft fly ball that gets caught, and if it advances any runners, it's probably Pierzynski to third, leaving the double play in order
or
C) Harris strikes out.

One of those three things probably happens two out of three times.

And after that the Sox are counting on Posednik to drive in whoever is left on base? Please.

Guillen decided to give up one out to get two guys in scoring position. That gave the Sox two chances to drive in guys with a base hit, and at least one chance to drive a guy in on a groundout or a flyout to tie the game. And that's what happened. The Sox got a run despite Posednik's weak grounder, and then Iguchi picked up Crede on third with a base hit.

If the situation is different, say the score were 7-2 with Detroit in front earlier in the game, then you would probably want Harris to work the count, try to slap a hit or draw a walk. That would be dangerous too, because you'd still have a man on first base, and the ball Posednik followed with would have probably been double-play material, thus getting you only one run anyway. But that's a 1-in-3 chance you have to take when you need a bundle of runs.

In the seventh inning of Saturday's game, however, the Sox only needed one run to tie and another to take the lead. And it still let them get to the heart of their order... Carl Everett and Paul Konerko both got to bat in the inning.

In fact, it was the big ball hitters that were disapointing for the Sox in the seventh. Everett got on base, but then Konerko hit into a fielder's choice. Had there been only one out, it would have been a double play.

But the point here isn't that letting the big guys swing away is a bad idea. It's a good idea, and if it had been Everett or Konerko putting down the bunt, it would have been a ridiculous play. You need those guys to do what they're good at, which is draw walks and hit home runs. But even Barry Bonds, the most successful hitter in baseball and maybe the best hitter ever, is only "successful" half the time, and less than that when you account for the situation. Most good hitters are only sucessful one out of three times. And the best hitters in the game can still kill a rally by grounding into a double play.

The guys the Sox had coming up in the lineup -- Harris and Posednik -- have by no measure Bondsian prowess. They're not even "good" hitters. So Guillen was absolutely right to cash in the runs he knew he could get. I would agree that is really "smart ball."

GAME NOTES:

Take your base:
After being hit by 10 pitches last year, Crede was hit by his third of 2005 in the fifth inning. That doesn't count the incident in Oakland where he was hit but didn't get his base. I don't think Crede's penchant to attract baseballs with his ribs is the product of him leaning in with the express purpose of drawing the base -- a la Craig Biggio -- but rather a pruduct of his stiff batting posture.
Intentions aside, for a guy like Crede that only walks about 35 times a year, getting plunked by 10-15 pitches is a nice way for him to boost his value.

Getting men on:
After six hits, four walks and two hit-by-pitches, the Sox' team on-base percentage creeped upward to ..316. Still not that great, but it's on the rise.

Living dangerously:
Orlando Hernandez provided another high-wire act Saturday, allowing eight hits and walking a pair. His WHIP for the season is now a scarry 1.63 and he's allowed 36 hits in 30 innings pitched so far in 2005. The Cuban righty of undetermined age is on target to give up more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his major league career.

How damaging is it to give up a ton of hits? Lets look at who gave up the most hits in 2004:

1. Sidney Ponson 265
2. Mark Buehrle 257
3. Carlos Silva 255
4. Kenny Rogers 248
5. Mike Maroth 244
6. Jason Jennings 241
7. Kyle Lohse 240
8. Darrell May 234
9. Livan Hernendez 234
10. Roy Oswalt 233

Well, it looks like the Good, the Bad and the just plain Ugly. Of course, Buehrle, El Duque's little brother and Oswalt are good, while Kenny Rogers is underrated. I think Silva pitched over his head last year, but he had a good season. Jennings, Maroth and Lohse are bad. And after both had good seasons in 2003, it seem like Ponson and May went to the mound covered in gasoline while AL hitters took turns putting matches to them.

The next 10 on the list is the same mixed bag, with guys that were good (Mark Mulder, Brad Radke), guys that were average (hello, Jon Garland) and guys that sucked (Shawn Estes).

So what is the difference? Well, some of the really good guys like Hernandez and Oswalt still had more innings than hits allowed. Among the rest of the guys there were good, Buehrle and Radke didn't walk very many guys. Other guys that were in between, like Silva and Rogers, sort of live on the edge. The guys that were good also had a tendency to keep the ball in the ballpark, except for Buehrle, who was hurt a lot by playing at New Comiskey.

So how will El Duque survive? Well, he's on pace to walk 88 guys this season, so that will have to improve. He's only allowed one home run this year, so he's doing good there.
Or he could just give up fewer hits, right?

POW:
Posednik went 0-for-2 with a pair of walk, lifting his OBP to .354. He also stole a base and drove in a run with a soft grounder in the seventh. His flurry of 5 walks last week also almost doubled his season total and put him on pace for 129. Way to go Scotty. I'd like to think think that could last.

On Deck:
Jon Garland (4-0, 1.80) against Wil Ledezma (1-1, 5.82). For his career, Ledezma has always been a better first-half pitcher (3.12 ERA before the All-Star break, 6.54 after).

Detroit 3, Chicago 2 (11 inn.)

2005-04-30T11:05:00.000-07:00

After overachieving in the one-run game department, the Sox are coming back to earth a bit after dropping a 3-2 game to Detroit on Friday. The Sox have now lost three straight after starting out 16-4.

Jose Contreras held up the pitching end of the bargain, giving up only three hits and three walks in six innings. The Sox also managed to get on base with a season-high 11 walks to go along with seven hits. Where things went south for the South Siders was in leaving 16 men on base.
Aaron Rowand, Willie Harris, Joe Crede and Scott Posednik combined for five walks, but all four also combined to go 0-for-16.

I don't want to bad-mouth walks, because they're the byproduct of a good approach at the plate, but man, a hit or two sure would have been nice.

The outburst of patience that hit the Sox lineup helped lift the team on-base percentage up to .314. That's still only good for 24th among MLB teams, but it's better than being second-to-last like the Sox were recently. It also moves them ahead of Cleveland, Oakland and Los Angeles in the American League.

Amazingly, despite also ranking near the bottom in slugging percentage (23rd), the Sox are still
18th in runs scored. One huge scoring night, or a couple pretty good scoring nights, could put this team in the top 10 in runs among all 30 MLB teams.

Still, that's not sustainable unless the Sox start hitting better, and even manager Ozzie Guillen has come out in the media and said so.

This team really needs Frank Thomas back.

GAME NOTE:

Living up to expectations:
When the Sox signed Tadahito Iguchi, most observers of Japanese baseball thought the second baseman would forfeit a lot of his power, but be able to sustain his average and keep drawing a fair number of walks. So far, those observations have been spot-on.

Iguchi on the season has hit .324 with enough free passes (4) to keep his OBP up at .365. And of his 24 hits, only three have gone for extra bases. All three have been doubles.

My guess is Iguchi drops in average a little, picks up a few more walks and sees a little spike in his power numbers as he gets more comfortable on this side of the Pacific Ocean. I can see his OPS going from .715 (going into Saturday's game against Detroit) to around .775. Nothing super, but nothing for a second baseman to be ashamed about.

"I never hit.":
That's what manager Ozzie Guillen told the media after GM Kenny Williams joked (we hope) about activating the former shortstop to take over his old position while the Sox healed some injuries. I think it's funny because a fair number of commentators cracked that Guillen would want to field a lineup of nine light-hitting shortstops when he took the job after the 2003 season.

So far, that hasn't been the case. Not only has Guillen come out and pointed to his team's offensive deficiencies, but he also hasn't loaded the team up with his batless bretheren. He even had the chance to do it when the Sox had Wilson Valdez around.

For the record, Guillen batted .264 with a .287 OBP and a .338 slugging average in 7,133 at-bats in 16 seasons. He had 28 home runs, and three times reached his career high of four. Here are his top 10 matches in similarity scores.

1. Alfredo Griffin (940)
2. Bill Russell (924)
3. Joe Tinker (923)
4. Billy Jurges (913)
5. Roger Peckinpaugh (901)
6. Phil Rizzuto (891)
7. Roy McMillan (891)
8. Marty Marion (890)
9. Art Fletcher (889)
10. Don Kessinger (887)

All of those guys except Griffin and Rizzuto have managed in the major leagues. So apparently, light-hitting middle infielders make good managerial material the same way backup catchers do.

POW:
Posednik is still in the same OBP territory (.347) with his two walks being nullified by his 0-for-4 showing at the plate.

On Deck:
The second of three against Detroit. Orlando Hernandez (2-1, 2.47) will take on Jason Johnson (2-1, 4.35). It would be nice to see the Sox tee-off on the Tigers' Opening Day starter from a year ago.

Sox streak snapped, lose last two in Oakland

2005-04-27T22:25:00.000-07:00

While it was sad to see the White Sox’ eight-game streak come to an end, especially on a pair of miffed fly balls late in the last two games against Oakland, it was a pretty nice run.

For now the Sox need to think about what’s going to happen with their roster. After injuries to infielders Pablo Ozuna, Juan Uribe and Tadahito Iguchi, the Sox had to resort to desperate measures in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss.

Joe Crede played his first major league game at shortstop, while Chris Widger played his first professional game ever at third. Then after Crede was given the boot by umpires in the ninth, Jermaine Dye took over at shortstop for the first time since before he was a pro.

With the team with its back against the wall, I have to say I’m impressed with the creativity Sox manager Ozzie Guillen showed by moving his players around the way he did. After all, what would have been the options?

The Sox could have optioned lefty Neal Cotts and brought up an infielder from Charlotte. That probably wasn’t a good idea, since the shortstop options there included 30-year-old Felix Martinez and recently re-signed Greg Norton, who probably can’t handle the position anymore at the tender age of 32.

Angel Gonzalez, who is hitting .333 with a .424 on-base percentage for Birmingham (Class AA) might have been an option, too, but besides the fact his numbers have only been over 48 at-bats, I don’t know that we can even coin his hitting thus far a success. He’s slugging .354 with one extra-base hit this season. He’d get the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors.

So, even ignoring the fact that Cotts is the freshest arm in the Sox pen at the moment, it doesn’t look like the Sox had any internal options, making the first plan ineffective.

That means the other option, putting one of the injured guys on the DL, wouldn’t work out either. The Sox would still be working with the same options.

In addition to that, I’m sure the Sox wouldn’t want to risk losing one of those guys for 15 days if it turns out the injury isn’t very serious. In the case of Osuna (swollen/bruised wrist) and Iguchi (bruised knee), they probably just need a few days to heal. Uribe, with his hamstring injury, might really need a visit to the DL.

So the Sox got by with what they had, and it seemed to work out OK. At least it worked out well enough that nobody should be bemoaning the loss of Wilson Valdez.

GAME NOTES:

Moving to his left:
Joe Crede acquitted himself well at shortstop, or at least as well as you can expect from a guy that hasn’t played the position in almost five years. He didn’t make an error and was involved in a pair of double plays.

This got me thinking about the last time the Sox moved their regular third baseman over to shortstop. It was May 20, 1994, in another game in Oakland. Craig Grebeck had to leave the game, so then-manager Gene Lamont shifted Robin Ventura off the hot corner over to shortstop.

Sure, you could point out other guys like Juan Uribe, Greg Norton, Chris Snopek or any of the other guys the Sox have trotted out to third base and say, “Hey, didn’t those third basemen play some short?” To which I’d respond, “Yes, they did, but they weren’t THE team’s third baseman.”

What makes this so special is that Joe Crede has rarely played the position, and if not for the injuries in Tuesday’s game, would never be asked to. Unlike those other guys that were utility infielder types.

So how did Ventura do? He made his ninth and 10^th errors of the season in eight chances, to begin and end his career at shortstop with a .750 fielding percentage.

Ventura went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI in that game. The Sox won 13-6 and picked up a game on Cleveland, boosting their lead to 1 ½ games in the first year of the AL Central Division. Ah, what might have been that season.

Worth his money:
Freddy Garcia lowered his ERA to 2.83 by tossing seven innings of one-hit ball. His WHIP for the season is now an outstanding 1.00. He walked two and struck out four. His K-rate of 4.89 is still pretty low, so maybe his ERA is in for a jump. We’ll see, but for now he’s earning every penny of his 3-year, $27 million contract.

Keep your eye on the ball:
Dye dropped a ball in ninth inning of Tuesday’s 9-7 loss, with the error leading directly to Marco Scutaro beginning the inning on second base. Without the mistake, Oakland still might have pushed across a run for the win, but we’ll never know. Maybe the Sox could have won their ninth.

Rowand lost one in the sun to give Oakland a similar head start in Wednesday’s ninth inning.

How these guys play defense is important to watch, because beyond the obvious reason, it could help determine who gets their playing time cut the most once Frank Thomas returns.

After going 0-for-4 Wednesday, Dye’s average slid to .177, with his OBP also at .203. As we get ready to wrap up the end of the season’s first month, the Sox need to seriously think about finding more room for Dye on the bench.

Rowand hasn’t been as putrid as Dye, but his .253/.306/.354 line is going to have to improve, or he could be spending more of his time watching Scott Posednik play center field. From the bench.

Benching Dye every other day in favor of Carl Everett seems like a good idea to me, while benching Rowand seems like a hasty move, and probably a bad one. But these guys are going to be fighting for playing time. No matter what Guillen says about Frank having to fight his way back into the lineup, there’s no way any of these other guys are going to beat out the team’s best hitter for playing time.

POW:
Posednik went 0-for-4 with no walks to see his OBP slide all the way to .348. No stolen bases.

On Deck:
The Sox don’t play Thursday, and will use the day to see if they can get their middle infielders healthy. Again, my guess is Uribe gets DLed, the other guys maybe need a few more days off. Could lead to some interesting lineups in this weekend’s series against Detroit.

Jose Contreras looks healthy enough to start Friday, while Hernandez will be Saturday’s starter.

White Sox 6, Oakland 0

2005-04-26T00:03:00.000-07:00

With help from Chris Widger’s first home run since August 9, 2000, Jon Garland tossed a complete-game four-hitter at Oakland in a 6-0 White Sox win Monday night in Oakland. Garland, who lowered his ERA to 1.80, walked only one batter and struck out three.

After watching the game, I have to admit, Garland is still a puzzle to me. His strikeout rate is way down (3.3 per 9 IP), but his K/BB rate is way up (2.2 vs. 1.34 in his career), largely because he’s given up only five walks in 30 innings.

Garland is on pace to toss 243 innings after going the distance Monday. Surely he won’t get that many, but even if he stayed on target for that workload at his current walk rate, he would only issue 41 free passes. That would be a career low for Garland among his complete big league seasons.

YEAR	BB	IP	BB/9IP
2001	61	117	4.69
2002	112	192.7	5.23
2003	108	191.3	5.08
2004	113	217	4.69
2005	41*	243*	1.50

*projection based on 162 game schedule

A couple weeks ago I compared Garland to Brad Radke, not in the sense that they’re similar, but in the sense that Garland could be a successful pitcher without striking out a ton of guys – a la Radke.

Well, cutting your career BB/9IP rate from near 5 to about 1.50 would represent a quantum leap. Is that sustainable? It just might be.

Long lauded for having a tremendous sinking fastball, Garland has never been able to really establish himself as a ground-ball pitcher. Going into this year his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio was only 1.27. He’s also given up his share of titanic home runs.

This year it’s been different. Garland has his G/F ratio up to 2.10. He’s also only given up one jack so far. Again, even if he goes 243 innings as projected, that would be only eight for the year.

Could Garland, now 25, finally be harnessing that sinker and using it to get guys out?

Well, we’ll have to see. He’ll have to continue to keep the ball down, especially in Comiskey Park. And he’ll have to keep guys off base. And watching tonight, he still looks like he likes to nibble at the zone at times.

But in the meantime, it looks like something has flipped the switch, as Garland is pitching like Sox fans imagined he would when he first joined the big league staff in 2000. Fans should enjoy it now, even if it’s only an April mirage.

FLASHBACK:
Widger’s first jack in nearly five years put the Sox up 2-0 in the seventh inning. Ironically, his last bomb came off White Sox pitcher Mike Sirotka in a game the Sox won 19-3. It was a solo shot back then, and the last run scored in the game.

Incidentally, Frank Thomas had two home runs in that game, while M’s pitcher Jamie Moyer was roasted for 11 earned runs. The win kept the Sox eight games in front of Cleveland and gave them an American League best 68-45 record. Chicago finished the year as division champs with an AL-best 95 wins.

Monday, Widger raised his OPS from .481 to .760 with his 2-for-4 night. Talk about a small sample size.

POW:
Scott Posednik had the night off. His on-base percentage rests at .384.

ON DECK:
Mark Buehrle (3-1, 2.61 ERA), will go against early season dominator Rich Harden (2-0, 0.44 ERA). In addition to the microscopic ERA, Harden is also striking out more than a batter per inning. He’s also walked six men in just over 20 innings.

Back in blogging form: catching up

2005-04-25T20:28:00.000-07:00

Since your faithful author was last seen pontificating on matters related to the Pale Hose, the team has done nothing short of turn the rest of the league on its ear by going 10-2, earning itself the best record in baseball.

All I can say is, “Wow.”

The run has included two-game sweeps of Minnesota and Detroit, as well as a three-game sweep of the Royals, who get more pathetic and desperate by the day. The White Sox have now won seven in a row as they square off against Oakland tonight.

Should we be stunned by this turn of events?

Even as a Sox fan, I have to think so. The Sox have thus far been 9-1 in one-run games this year, and are playing above their Pythagorean projection. Not that I think Pythagorean is a perfect measurement, because there are things that can happen every that that skew the numbers. But I think we can be sure that if the Sox don’t improve their team on-base percentage of .298 (which ranks last in MLB), they’ll be in trouble.

The Sox have had plenty of margin for error because of the stellar pitching they’ve gotten over the first part of the schedule. Their team ERA of 3.12 trails only Florida (a phenomenal mark of 2.12) and Atlanta (2.90). Chicago is the only American League team in the top five in team ERA.

Two things I think we can count on going forward:

1) The Sox’ ERA will go up
2) The Sox’ OBP will also go up

I think the second is the more likely of the two to see a significant increase, because most of the players dragging down the Sox team OBP are players you wouldn’t expect to stay mired in a season-long slump. For instance:

Jermaine Dye: The Sox’ new right fielder is batting .177 with a .215 OBP and a .323 slugging average, which adds up to an abysmal .538 OPS. No matter what you think of Dye’s talent level, we know he’s better than this. Even if he puts together a poor season, the Sox can count on more production from his spot.

Aaron Rowand: Even if he’s never going to play as well as he did in his huge 2004 season, he’s better than his current .235/.278/.353 line.

Carl Everett: Everett’s OBP (.254) is lower than his batting average (.258) primarily because he’s drawn only one walk this year. In his career, Carl has averaged 50 free passes per season. Unless he has a radically different approach at the plate, he’ll be able to lift his OBP. His career level is .346, with a .272 batting average. So take .020 off his career average, and that’s still not bad. In fact, it’s a whole lot better.

Other guys that are pretty low are Paul Konerko (.329 this year, as opposed to .344 career) and A.J. Pierzynski (.283 this year compared to .334 in his career).

Add to that mix a healthy Frank Thomas (.434 OBP last year and at .429 over the course of his Hall-of-Fame career), the Sox should be in OK shape. Their lack of on-base ability was truly exposed last year when the Big Hurt went down, but they won’t be as bad off as they were.

Guys who could be playing over their head in the OBP department?

Scott Posednik: His .383 mark is better than his off-the-charts (for him) 2003 in which he posted a .379 OBP. He’s on pace for 60 walks, which is about what he did each of the last two seasons, so he’ll have to keep his batting average up if he’s going to be effective. It remains to be seen if he can do that. But that’s nothing we didn’t already know going into the year.

Joe Crede: Despite taking much criticism from this author, Crede looks like he’s putting together a nice little season. In the last week he’s hit .423/.464/.769 to raise his season marks to .313/.343/.493. That’s pretty far removed from Bad Joe, who posted a .717 OPS in 2004, and more like Good Joe, who posted an .892 OPS in the second half of 2003.

Which Joe Crede are the Sox going to get this season?

The pessimist would say he’s just on a hot streak and will settle into the same holding pattern he’s been in since joining the Sox for good in 2002. The one where he shows flashes, but has a career .743 OPS.

The optimist would say he’s going to turn 27 tomorrow (April 26), is just hitting his peak, and is going to settle in and have a few nice above-average years.

Call me an optimist

As for the rest of the roster and their OBP prospects, I think we’re getting just what we should have expected from Tadahito Iguchi (.328) and Juan Uribe (.318). And even though Willie Harris has a .429 OBP built largely on an unsustainable .369 batting average, I think we can be sure that Pablo Ozuna (.200), Ross Gload (.154) and yes, even Timo Perez (.241) can get on base better than they have.

We’ll take a closer look at the Sox pitching later this week, but for now I’m convinced the OBP situation is bound to improve more than the pitching situation worsens.

SEASON NOTES:

1-run sustainability:
Not to rain on the parade, especially since I was leading it just a moment ago, but the Sox won’t be able to keep up their 9-1 record in one-run games. Why not? Because even if there were a measurable way to quantify a positive correlation between a certain roster construction and success in close games, there is still the undeniable element of luck involved. And that luck never evens out with a team winning 90 percent of its one-run games.

Or put it another way. The Sox are off to a 9-1 start in one-run games, but is it really because they’ve emphasized team speed and defense, as well as good pitching? The answer is no.

Last year’s poor-glove, right-handed mashing machine started the season 11-1 in one-run games. The Sox finished the 2004 season with a 28-18 record in one-run games. That means they went .500 the rest of the way.

So because this team is better on defense and has better pitching, they’ll keep winning the close ones where the 2004 Sox didn’t? I don’t think so.

I’m willing to concede that it’s possible there are certain roster configurations that would allow a team to be more successful in one-run games than last year’s version of the Sox. But there has yet to be a team that has found a way to win nine out of every 10 games that way.

Working ahead in the count:
If the Sox win tonight, they’ll have a five-game lead over the Twins in the AL Central race. While it’s true you only have to go back to 2003 when the Royals had a seven-game lead much later in the season, it’s also true that five games is not an insignificant head start.

If the Sox play one game over .500 for the rest of the year, they’ll finish with an 87-75 record. So even with the Twins on pace to win 90 games, the Sox could hang in the race with even a middling performance. And it would probably have to take a pretty serious collapse for them to fall out of it.

What can we expect from the two teams going forward? It’s hard to say, because I haven’t looked at the Twins’ roster from top-to-bottom. The Sox are a game better in the Pythagorean standings despite the offensive woes, but again, that’s not a good measure of success going forward.

But then, that’s the beauty of the baseball season. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

And why not talk about the Tigers or Indians? Because, brother, they both suck.

POW:
The Posednik On-base percentage Watch returns from a week and a half off to find Scotty boosting his batting average to .303 and sitting pretty with a .384 OBP. As I mentioned above, he’s on pace for about 60 walks. And he’s also on pace for 77 stolen bases with only nine caught stealing. That’s based on his nine swipes against one caught in 14 games so far this year. That would be pretty phenomenal.

Small Ball? Smart Ball? Money Ball? White Sox fans shouldn’t care as long as Posednik keeps that OBP up and steals bases with that kind of success rate.

He’s still only on pace for 77 runs scored, but I think that’s more a product of the middle of the order behind him slumping badly. It’s not like he’s running himself off the basepaths.

Welcome Back:
The Sox signed former farmhand Greg Norton to a minor league contract and assigned him to Charlotte.

Norton, drafted out of Oklahoma as a shortstop in the second round of the 1993 amateur draft, first joined the big club for cups of coffee in 1996 and 1997. He stuck in 1998 as a utility infielder, and after Robin Ventura left following that season took over the third base job.

His big year was 1999 when as a 26-year old he posted .244/.333/.424 marks with 16 home runs and 26 doubles in just more than 400 at-bats.

The Sox brought in Herb Perry the next year, who had a nice season and helped the 2000 Sox to their surprising division title. Despite Perry’s injury history, the Sox deemed Norton expendable so he was released and signed with Colorado, where he put up OPS marks of .847, .826 and .891 over the next three years.

Norton had a dismal 86 at-bats for Detroit, where he hit .174 (though still with a .274 OBP… pretty good given the rancid BA). He almost as bad at Toledo, where he hit .207/.297/.315.

Now at the beginning of his age-33 season, it’s doubtful he’s got much left in the tank, and if we see him a lot with the Sox this year, it’s because something went horribly wrong. But it’s nice to see the organization bring a guy back and give him a chance. He won’t be blocking a prospect, and if he can still keep his OBP .080-.100 above his batting average, he’s probably a better bet to be able to help a team as a pinch-hitting utility infielder than Wilson Valdez.

So welcome back Greg.

On Deck:
Jon Garland, with his 2.57 ERA, hopes to pitch the Sox past Barry Zito and Oakland. Zito has been torched in his last three games (7.27 ERA), but he is striking out more than a man an inning in that span (19 in 17 frames). This is a game I’m excited to see because like everyone else, I want to know if Garland’s success is for real.

Thanks to everyone who’s still reading this blog. I don’t deserve it after taking off for more than a week without notice. Things have been hectic, but that’s no excuse. I can’t promise I’ll be able to post every day, or won’t have to take time off during the season, but I’ll be sure to give better notice.

No new posts for a while

2005-04-23T12:43:00.000-07:00

I am sorry there haven't been many posts lately. I'd like to continue posting after every game, but it's been tough in the early going with my schedule. I hope to be back on track by Monday afternoon.

White Sox 2, Indians 1

2005-04-12T16:14:00.000-07:00

Freddy Garcia was calm and in control for eight innings Monday when the Sox beat the Indians 2-1 in Cleveland. Garcia retired the last 14 batters he faced an used only 109 pitches.

After Garcia's last time out, I made the comment that he's not an "ace" pitcher, and I'm sticking to that. It is interesting to note that by similarity scores (found on www.baseballreference.com) Garcia finds himself alongside some other guys that are considered aces:

1. Matt Morris (956)
2. Kevin Millwood (956)
3. Ben McDonald (955)
4. Jose Guzman (951)
5. Larry Christenson (943)
6. Tom Lovett (941)
7. Pat Jarvis (940)
8. Mark Mulder (932)

Garcia is comparable to none other than the man he outdueled on Monday. And both guys are kind of similar in that they're good top-of-the-rotation guys, but not really aces because they walk a few too many guys (60-70 per year) and don't strike out a ton of guys (usually only 140-180 per season). Matt Morris is the same way, but with just a little better control (he averages 60 BB per year).

And the pitcher most like Garcia through age 29, his age during his last full season? Drumroll please..... former Sox pitcher Bartolo Colon. Of course Colon could dial up the strikeouts better, and was also a bit wilder.
For .

GAME NOTES:
-- Catcher Chris Widger, giving starter A.J. Pierzynski the day off, surprised me when he was the only Sox player to draw a walk Monday. He's never drawn more than 30 in a season, and in any season where he's had at least 100 at-bats, he's had an on-base percentage higher than .308 once -- a .325 back in 1999. Old player skills setting in? Sox fans can only hope so.

-- Sox lefty reliever Damaso Marte came in and got two batters in the ninth, but he gave up a walk when he didn't go right after Indians DH Travis Hafner. I can understand wanting to work carefully to Hafner, especially in a one-run game, but since Marte has the stuff to overpower left-handed hitter, that's what he should be doing.

OPS AGAINST MARTE 2002-05
RH Batters: .688
LH Batters: .470

In 13 career at-bats, Hafner has a career OPS of .760. But that's mostly because of a .375 on-base percentage bolstered by three walks, including one yesterday. Hafner has also struck out seven times in those 13 at-bats, so it seems to me like the lefty-hitting DH is more likely to hurt Marte by taking a free pass.

POW:
Scott Posednik raised his on-base percentage back up to .333 by going 2-for-4. He also stole a base, scored a run and plated another with two-out RBI single in the seventh that gave the Sox the lead for good. Is small ball really working? That remains to be seen, but I suspect Scotty P. is going to have to raise his OBP a bit to remain effective on offense the entire season.

ON DECK:
The Sox play again at Cleveland on on Wednesday where Jose Contreras (1-0, 1.50 ERA) re-matches with Cliff Lee (0-1, 13.50). It will be interesting to see what the Tribe does against Contreras after seeing him for the second time in two weeks, and might tell us a little bit about what we can expect from the big Cuban righty for the rest of the year.

Twins 5, White Sox 2

2005-04-11T12:26:00.000-07:00

After the White Sox plated a couple early runs, reigning Cy Young-winner Johan Santana settled down and proceeded to make every hitter in the Sox line his personal bitch. An error proved costly for Sox starter Mark Buehrle. Otherwise, not much else to report.

Sox take two games in a three-game series, though, so that’s something.

On Deck Today:

Sox go to Cleveland and face Kevin Millwood for the second time in two weeks. Freddy Garcia takes the hill for Chicago.

White Sox 8, Twins 5

2005-04-10T09:34:00.000-07:00

Despite the supposed shift to defense, the Sox are still punching their fair share of home runs, hitting three Saturday night in an 8-5 win over the Twins..

Are the Sox really more of a small-ball team than last year? With Chicago's offseason moves being highlighted by the Carlos Lee-for-Scott Posednik swap, pust the decision to let Magglio Ordonez walk, that seems to be how fans and local scribes are characterizing the change.

I don't buy it. Let's run down the team by position:

First Base: Paul Konerko (2004) vs. Konerko (2005).
Verdict: Push.

Second Base: Willie Harris (2004) vs. Tadahito Iguchi (2005).
Iguchi has less speed and more power. Sox actually going the other way here. Verdict: Big Ball.

Shortstop: Jose Valentin (2004) vs. Juan Uribe (2005)
You could argue that Uribe is more of a small-ball player than Valentin and his 30 home runs in '04. But I don't think this move has to do with a shift in philosophy. It had more to do with economics. Uribe is younger, cheaper and potentially better this season. This move was more about the personel on-hand for the Sox. Verdict: Push.

Third Base: Joe Crede (2004) vs. Crede (2005)
(Not-So) Young (Anymore) Joe gets one more crack at the third-base job. Verdict: Push.

Catcher: Miguel Olivo (2004) vs. A.J. Pierzynski (2005)
Olivo was always touted for his power potential, but really he only played like a part-time catch-and-throw guy. Pierzynski is an obvious offensive upgrade, and doesn't carry the defensive rep of the Sox' former receiver. That perception might not be the reality, but conventional wisdom says the Sox didn't go small ball here. Verdict: Big Ball.

Left Field: Lee (2004) vs. Posednik (2005)
This one was also fueled by economics, with Lee due $8 million and Posednik slated to earn close to the league minumum. But it's obvious this is where the Sox wanted to add "speed and defense." Verdict: Small Ball.

Center Field: Aaron Rowand (2004) vs. Rowand (2005)
Verdict: Push.

Right Field: Magglio Ordonez (2004) vs. Jermaine Dye (2005)
Ordonez is gone because the Sox didn't want to ink him to an insane contract. Economics, pure and simple. Dye plays better D, and I guess that fits in with a small-ball approach, but I don't think Dye fits the small ball mold. Verdict: Push.

Designated Hitter: Frank Thomas/Carl Everett (2004) vs. Carl Everett/Frank Thomas (2005)
Verdict: Push.

So it goes 2-1 in favor of Big Ball for the Sox, with a fist full of pushes because the the same guys are manning the position, or because the decision wasn't about philosophy. That doesn't mean the Sox will be a more offensive club than last year. It just means I think the small ball story line has been way overplayed. The only thing Sox GM Kenny Williams did was pursue available upgrades where they fit into his payroll.

Now back to the Sox/Twins series.

GAME NOTES:
-- Crede, Uribe and Timo Perez all had big hits, including Perez' shot in the seventh inning. I don't have time to look the stats to verify this right now, but I suspect that it helps all of those guys that radRadke generally stays in the strike zone. They've all been known to chase stuff off the plate.

-- Sox pitcher Jon Garland struck out only one guy is six innings. Here's a look at Garland's Ks per nine innings:

2000 5.43
2001 4.69
2002 5.23
2003 5.07
2004 4.69

Garland is only 25-years-old, but his strikeouts are going the wrong way. If there's a bright side to this, his K/BB rate his improved every year he's been in the big leagues, going from 1.05 in 2000 to 1.49 last season. A pitcher can still be successful without big strikeout numbers, but Garland will have to walk a lot fewer guys to get into that territory. For an example, just look at his pitching opponent on Saturday.

Brad Radke Career
K/9: 5.46 K/BB: 3.27

Yea. Garland has a long way to go.

-- It's a scary thought for Sox fans to think about what Twins catcher Joe Mauer would do if they moved him out from behind the dish. That's not a dig at his defense, though he did have a passed ball in Saturday's game. It's more of a comment on his ability to stay healthy while catching. I believe in his bat, and think he could do a lot of great things. As a baseball fan, I'd like to see that.

-- Konerko still hitting well, drilling his third home run. He's hit in every game this year.

-- It was nice to see Cliff Politte and Damaso Marte each go 1 1-3 innings on Saturday. That's a lot better than what happened during Thursday's mess, where each only faced one batter and Sox manager Ozzie Guillen burned his entire bullpen. He's got to get past this on-the-job training stuff.

-- Don't look now, but the Sox have the best record in the American League at 4-2.

POW:
Posednik went 1-for-4 and his on-base percentage dipped to .318, down from a season-high .333. No stolen bases, but Posednik did have a nice hustle play to score on the Mauer passed ball in the seventh inning. He hit into a fielders choice and went from first-to-third on a throwing error by J.C. Romero.

AROUND BASEBALL:
The Indians' Jake Westbrook was hammered by the Tigers on Saturday. It's no secret I'm not a Westbrook fan. He was way over his head last year. ... The headline on ESPN's scoreboard page says it all: Angels snuff out Lima Time and Royals. ... Richard Hidalgo, my first choice of free agents the Sox should have targeted for right field, hit his second home run of the season in a 7-6 Texas win over Seattle. ... Former White Sox pitcher David Wells got hammered for the second time in as many starts, giving up six earned runs in just more than six innings as Boston lost 12-5 to Toronto. Boston is struggling a little early at 2-3, but don't look for that to continue. ... The Mets are still winless and Oliver Perez of the Pirates got hammered again.

ON DECK TODY:
The two best left-handers in the American League face off tonight as Mark Buehrle goes against Johan Santana. The game is on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. Wow. This is going to be a fun one to watch.

White Sox 5, Twins 1

2005-04-09T09:16:00.000-07:00

Nice to see Orlando Hernandez have a nice outing. He needed just more than 100 pitches to go seven innings, for the most part because he didn't walk anyone. He did strike out five. There's no secret and no mystery to it. If El Duque stays healthy, he's a great pitcher. Here's hoping the Sox keep him healthy.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rowand did a little something at the plate, driving in two runs with a homer in three at-bats. I don't know that we can say he's officially heating up with the bat, but you can't argue with what he did Friday night.

Paul Konerko continues to rake, picking up a walk and a hit. His batting average actually fell to .429. Could Konerko have an even better year that last year? Well, it's too early to tell. It would be nice, both for the Sox' ability to contend, and for Paulie, because he's by all accounts a nice guy. I don't think it would bode well for the Sox keeping him, however.

RANDOM NOTES:
-- Twins 1B/DH Matt LeCroy went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts against the Sox on Friday. Last season, in a fantasy baseball league I play in, a friend was asked if he would add LeCroy to a trade to get a deal done. The answer: LeCroy was untouchable. Supposedly, LeCroy was supposed to hit like a middling firstbaseman, but because he qualified at catcher, he would be a good-hitting catcher on a fantasy team. Well, LeCroy didn't hit as well as a lot of catchers that were available. So now some f us have a running joke about needing to acquire LeCroy to push our teams towards a fantasy championship.

-- Friday's game featured two thirdbasemen that are off to slow starts. Joe Crede went 0-for-4 to drop his average to .077 on the season. Michael Cuddyer went 1-for-4 to raise his average to .133, but he left two men in scoring position. Neither guy is going to be a world-beater this season, and both should rebound. Cuddyer will probably be the better hitter over the course of the season.

-- Twins SS Jason Bartlett is having some success in the early going after beating the craptacular Juan Castro for the starting job at short. He's batting .385 in the early going, and while it's not a roubust .385 (he has 1 extra-base hit and no walks), it is probably enough to let him keep his job should he tail off a little bit. That's not necessarily good for the Sox, because Bartlett's a better hitter than Castro, but it's good for Bartlett. He was the underdog in the position battle, and it's hard not to root for him.

Which brings me to an interesting philosophical question. Why root for your team's arch nemesis to play the better player when it could hurt your team in the standings? Easy. Because I'd rather have my team win because of what it does right, as opposed to hoping for misfortune to befall others. All things being equal, it's better to be good than lucky.

-- Nice job by Dustin Hermanson working on back-to-back days. After Thursday's disaster against the Indians, Sox manager Ozzie Guillen made the right call by letting Hermanson work two innings. Dusty fanned three, gave up two hits and walked none. He has yet to be scored on this year.

AROUND BASEBALL:
Former Sox SS Jose Valentin lifted the Dodgers for the second time this week with a home run, this time a two-run shot to cap a four-run ninth-inning come back. I work with a Dodger fan at work, and I told him this when his team picked up Valentin: people will beef when he boots a ball, but he's still going to help a team more than he'll hurt it. Why wouldn't you rather have a player that boots 10-15 extra balls per year when he's going to knock 15-20 extra dingers a year? ... The Cubs coughed up a ninth-inning lead when LaTroy Hawkins blew a save against the Brewers, who by the way are my pick for surprise team in the NL. I think Cubdom is overreacting, and if you are a true Cubs fan (which I certainly am not!) you are rooting for Jim Hendry not to panic. The only option at this point would be to overpay for someone else's garbage (Ugeth Urbina or Braden Looper or someone). ... Indians beat the Tigers. Magglio Ordonez is out with a viral infection. He'll be out until Tuesday. When you think about the money Detroit spend. Yikes! ... Former Sox pitcher Josh Fogg had a nice game against the Padres to pick up his, and Pittsburgh's, first win of the season.

Indians 11, White Sox 5

2005-04-08T10:19:00.000-07:00

Shingo Takatsu poured gasoline all over himself in the ninth inning of today’s 11-5 laugher, and was torched for three solo home runs that tied the game at five. Luis Vizcaino soaked up 2 1/3 innings of abuse, himself being pounded for six earned runs in the 11^th inning.

Why was Vizcaino allowed to stay in for so long? Well, because he was the only guy left in the bullpen after Sox manager Ozzie Guillen foolishly burned his entire pen in the span of three innings.

After getting six excellent innings from starter Jose Contreras, Guillen opted to start the seventh inning with lefty Neal Cotts. Cotts was touched up for a run on a walk and a hit while only getting one out.

Now, to begin with, why the fuck is Neal Cotts on this Sox roster? I guess the answer is that the Sox don’t think he’ll ever go back to starting because his poor mechanics would lead him to break down under the workload. Fine. That’s why he’s not starting at AAA Charlotte.

But is he really well-suited to be a lefty specialist, even the No. 2 guy after Damaso Marte? Even in 2002 when Cotts struck out a very impressive 178 batters in fewer than 140 innings for Class A Modesto, he had a WHIP of 1.58.

Things looked better the next year at Class AA Birmingham, where the then 23-year-old punched out 133 in 108 innings. But he also had an unusually low hit-rate (5.57 H/9IP) that was unsustainable, and he was still walking close to five guys per nine innings (4.65 to be exact).

He’s been in the big leagues ever since. And in that time, left-handed hitters have spanked him to the tune of an .869 OPS, compared with .776 for righties. Hardly the magic you want your lefty specialist to be working out of your bullpen.

So we know two things. 1) Cotts has yet to master AAA, having never pitched there. He should, because even after a year in Chicago, he doesn’t look ready to really help an MLB team, and 2) if the Sox are choosing a way to maximize their return on him by finding a role where he won’t get hurt… well… they need to find a different role, because to get any kind of return, Cotts has to perform well. He’s not performing well in the Sox pen.

But on to the larger issue. So, the Sox have decided to carry Cotts in the pen for better or worse. And everyone has to get some work in sometime, right? Might as well put Cotts with a four-run lead for a little tune-up.

But then Cotts got in trouble. Instead of letting him work out of it, Guillen panicked and put Cliff Politte in for one batter, and only one batter before going with Marte to face the lefty Travis Hafner.

Now, with two men (Jhnny Peralta on third, Coco Crisp on first) and a four-run lead and Ronnie Belliard at the plate, why not just let Cotts try to get Belliard out? Instead, Politte comes in, gets a fly ball out that scores Peralta.

So with the tying run still not at the plate, with Crisp on first and Hafner at the plate, why not let Politte try to get Hafner? Yes, Hafner is a good hitter, but the Sox aren’t yet in dire straits. Worst-case scenario, Hafner takes Politte deep and you’re still up by a run.

Instead, Marte comes on to get Hafner, the only batter he’ll face, on a deep fly to left. Because Guillen doesn’t want Marte to face the right-handed hitters in the eighth inning, he goes with Dustin Hermanson in the eighth. Then he has just poor old Shingo in the ninth and pretty much has to let him explode out on the mound. Oh, yea, and then let Vizcaino take one for team a few innings later.

It’s just stupid to use three pitchers in one inning. I don’t care about the matchup. It’s just plain stupid.

Instead of sweeping the Indians and sitting pretty atop the AL Central with a 3-0 record when they travel to Minnesota this weekend, the Sox are tied with the Twins (2-1) and Tigers (2-1) and face what for many fans seems like a make-or-break series. To be swept by the Twinkies would be demoralizing, even for the rational baseball fan that realizes this is just the first week of the season. Just remember, every game counts…

On The Bright Side:

Contreras looked sharp. He was staying ahead of hitters, despite wasting a number of pitches that ran his counts up, and struck out four while walking only two. A lot of batters could only slap his stuff into groundball outs, and he needed only 96 pitches to work six innings, despite throwing more balls than he had to.

I’ve given the Sox the benefit of the doubt when it comes to acquiring Contreras. He’s a pretty expensive project, but on days like today, you can see the upside the scouts see when they watch him throw. It’s now the Sox’ responsibility to keep Contreras’ head grounded, which seems to be his only barrier to becoming a dominant hurler.

New Guys Look Good:

Tadahito Iguchi had three hits to raise his average to .364 on the season, while A.J. Pierzynski knocked out a couple hits, including a home run, to raise his BA to the same. They won’t keep hitting like that, but they’ve looked good. It’s nice to know the Sox were willing to take what fell in their laps when both became available last winter.

POW:

Scott Posednik went 2-for-5 to raise his OBP to .308. He has one walk on the season and has stolen one base after reaching base five times on the year.

White Sox 4, Indians 3

2005-04-06T22:01:00.000-07:00

Paul Konerko was once again the catalyst for the Sox offense as his two-run blast keyed a four-run ninth-inning comeback against the Indians and closer Bob Wickman.

Jermaine Dye also smacked a home run and Juan Uribe’s sac fly drove home Aaron Rowand, who had doubled earlier and reached third on an error by Bob Wickman.

Not much to say. I think the broader-based skills of this year’s Sox definitely helped the comeback effort, but that doesn’t mean last year’s squad couldn’t have done the same.

Of course, there is the continuing frustration with “ace” Freddy Garcia. Garcia labored through six innings, using 109 pitches while striking out six and walking three – though it seemed like more as only 58 of his pitches went for strikes.

But nobody, least of all Sox fans who got to watch him last season, should be surprised that he is not the ace he was advertised to be with the M’s. At the same time, that doesn’t mean the Sox should think they’re getting ripped off. Just look at what some other pitchers got this offseason.

Freddy Garcia	$27	3
Matt Clement	$25	3
Derek Lowe	$36	4
Carl Pavano	$39	4
Jaret Wright	$21	3
Kris Benson	$22.5	3
Kevin Millwood	$7	1
Odalis Perez	$24	3
Brad Radke	$18	2

Can any of these guys call themselves an ace? Well, no. But these guys are all acceptable No. 2 guys in a rotation. And that’s just what Freddy Garcia is.

Before we get too made at Garcia for not living up to our expectations, we should at least appreciate what he will do for the Sox for the length of his contract. And anyway, he has a 3.00 ERA after today.

POW: Scott Posednik got his first hit of the season, but went hitless in four other at-bats. He didn’t reach base any other way, so his on-base percentage now stands at .250.

Around Baseball: Twins beat M’s and remain a half game back of the Sox. … Thank got the Yankees/Red Sox series is over, for now. … Carlos Lee had a homer and four RBI for the Brewers against the Pirates today. Magglio Ordonez is still hitless this spring. He went 0-for-2 today against the Royals and left after the fourth inning because of dizziness. … Another former White Sock, Scott Schoneweiss took the loss for the Blue Jays today.

White Sox 1, Indians 0

2005-04-04T14:55:00.000-07:00

Mark Buehrle chewed through Cleveland’s lineup, allowing two hits and walking one while striking out five in eight innings of work. Paul Konerko provided most of the sock in the Sox’ lineup, collecting two of the team’s four hits and scoring the game’s only run on a bouncer to short hit by Aaron Rowand.

Game Notes:

-- The Sox offense didn’t do very well, but it was only one game. Talk about a small sample size. I like manager Ozzie Guillen’s answer when a reporter asked him during the postgame press conference if the though the team was overmatched offensively, which was basically, “It’s just the first day of the season.” I don’t think you an form any conclusions about a team until at least a month into the season.

-- Speaking of Guillen, he made one very good call with Konerko and another very good non-call.

The non-call came when Konerko doubled to lead off the bottom of the seventh. I was afraid Guillen would pinch run for him. Instead, he let Konerko stay in, despite being his slowness on the basepaths. The run came around to score anyway, and if necessary, Konerko could have hit again.

Guillen did replace Konerko at first base with Ross Gload to start the ninth. Gload then made a nice play for the last out of the game. Ozzie did look smart on that one, as it’s hard to imagine Konerko ranging to his right for that one.

-- Nobody looked very good at the plate, except maybe Konerko. But at the same time, nobody looked bad, except maybe Joe Crede. Nothing the Sox’ third sacker hit left the infield, and the last shot off his bat went to the shortstop for a double-play.

It was pretty unusual for Crede in that last year, better than 47 percent of his at-bats resulted in fly balls, as opposed to 33 percent that went for grounders. It doesn’t really mean anything yet, but it’s just something of interest.

POW: I’m going to be doing something called the Scott Posednik On-Base Percentage Watch. All it is an update on how often the Sox’ new leadoff hitter is reaching base. So, as of today, the POW is .250 after a walk and no hits in three at-bats.

Around Baseball: What the fuck is going on with Javier Vazquez? The Cubs are lighting his ass up. … Speaking of the North Siders, they inked third baseman Aramis Ramirez to a 4-year, $42 million deal. Ramirez can opt out after 2006. Not a great deal for Cub… The Twins are losing to the M’s. … Pedro Martinez got roughed up today, but I think he’ll be OK. .. Milwaukee beat Pittsburgh handily today, 9-2. The Brewers are my pick as this year’s surprise team in baseball. They’ll be good offensively, they have a couple good pitchers. Now all they need is a couple young guys to step up, and they could be close to .500. When you haven’t has a winning season since 1992, that would constitute a surprise.

First pitch

2005-04-04T12:08:00.000-07:00

The first pitch by Mark Buehrle is called for a ball. Game temperature is 64 degrees. Welcome to 2005 White Sox baseball.

Old Sox trying to find new jobs

2005-04-03T10:52:00.000-07:00

Just keeping up with old friends... here are some of the former White Sox players fighting for spots on Opening Day rosters:

Matt Ginter, who was sent to the Mets for Timo Perez last year, won't make the Mets bullpen so instead goes to Pittsburgh, where he should be a lock. The 26-year-old righty had a 4.54 ERA last year in 69 1/3 innings spread over 14 starts and one relief appearance. Former Sox closer Roberto Hernandez, who was last seen starting fires in Philadelphia's bullpen (4.76 ERA for the Phils in '04), was added to the Mets' roster, effectively taking Ginter's spot.

Outfielder Chris Singleton will make Tampa Bay's roster as a reserve outfielder. This comes after the D-Rays also picked up Michael Restovich off waivers from the Twins, and signed the lousy (ED: and now suspended for steroids) Alex Sanchez, formerly Detroit's CF. During his time with the White Sox, Singleton was a premier defensive CF, with range factors of 3.01, 3.00 and 2.56. That last number must have been a bad omen. Even though it was still better than average (the league RF that year was 244). Singleton was traded for Willie Harris after that season, and has been below average every since.

Singleton also saw the power in his bat evaporate. As a rookie for the Sox in 1999, the then 26-year-old had 54 extra-base hits, including 17 home runs. He hit 38 and 33 the next two years, and saw mild resurgence in Baltimore in 2002, when he had 45 hits that went for extra bases (30 doubles). Then the roof caved in with Oakland in 2003. He had only 26 extra-base hits and saw his on-base percentage stay near .300.

Leg injuries cost Singleton a job with the Pirates last spring, and it's probably the same nagging problems that are costing him his speed and defensive range. At his advanced age (33 on April 15), Singleton is unlikely to reclaim the skills that made him valuable earlier in his Major League career.

Wilson Valdez, who the Sox cut last week, was picked up by the Mets, who tried to send him to AAA and lost him to the Mariners. With Seattle's bleak infield situation, Valdez looks to make that team. Some irony: Benji Gil, who came to camp with the Sox in 1998 and lost the SS job to Mike Caruso, was sent from the Mariners to the Mets for a PTBNL.

Crappy former Sox Ruben Sierra and Tanyon Sturtz will both hang out on the fringes of the Yankees' roster. That they won jobs defies probability. That the Yankees have them on guaranteed contracts and didn't really bring in anyone to compete with them screams it even louder. How they hell does a good organization do that?

Scott Schoneweis will likely make the Blue Jays in their bullpen, where he belongs (if anywhere on a MLB team). Toronto elected to cut Billy Koch in what's become a bizarre situation. At least Billy got some guaranteed cash out of the deal.

Former Sox relief prospect Joe Valentine looks like he'll make the Reds' roster. He was traded with Keith Foulke to Oakland, who later flipped him as part of a deal for Jose Guillen. Lefty Kelly Wunsch looks like he'll stick in the Dodgers bullpen. He'll be a teammate of former Sox minor-league Olmedo Saenz, who won a job as a backup infielder. The Pirates elected to keep pitcher Rick "Whiny Boy" White and former Sox draft pick Bobby Hill. Pitcher Cal Eldred looks like he'll stay in St. Louis. In Colorado, Greg Norton will keep his job as a utility infielder.

Also in the mile-high city, Charles Johnson, who was slated to be the team's third-string catcher, was traded to the Red Sox and promptly released. Johnson, 33, was scheduled to earn $9 million dollars of a backloaded 5-year, $35 million deal he signed with the Marlins after a career year in 2000, when he hit .304/.379/.582. The teams are eating various portions of the contract because even with his .350 OBP last year, his usefulness is limited. His power is falling off, even playing in Coors field, so at best he's an OK backup. He'll be a good fit when he joins Singleton in Tampa.

Jon Rauch and Gary Majewski, the pair of pitchers Sox GM Kenny Williams gave up to bring back Carl Everett last season, were sent to AAA by the Washington Nationals. That makes three former Sox pitching prospects that won't rejoin the Expos/Nats. Rocky Biddle was released in the offseason. Antonio Osuna does make the club there. Alex Escobar, who the Sox claimed on waivers last summer, went on the DL, so will be temporarily spared from being demoted or released for the third time in the last nine months.

Pitcher Jason Bere and outfielder Jeff Abbott won't make the Indians roster, and Jason Grilli won't make it with the Tigers. Catcher and former Sox farmhand Humberto Quintero, who Williams traded for D'Angelo Jimenez in 2002, was sent from the Paders to the Astros for Tim Redding. Quintero should be starting ahead of Brad Ausmus in Houston, but won't. The consolation is that even if Quintero doesn't have much of a career, he still got traded for some nice swag a couple times.

Former Sox first-round pick and draft-loophole free agent bonus baby Bobby Seay was designated for assignment by the Devil Rays. With a 3.28 ERA in 44 MLB innings, and a functioning left arm, he'll get more chances. Must be a great life.

Widger, Ozuna earn jobs as Sox set roster

2005-04-02T11:33:00.000-08:00

The Sox' Opening Day roster has finally taken shape:

Starting pitchers: Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland
Relief pitchers: Shingo Takatsu, Dustin Hermansen, Luis Vizcaino, Neal Cotts, Damaso Marte, Cliff Politte
Outfielders: Scott Posednik, Carl Everett, Jermaine Dye, Aaron Rowand, Timo Perez
Infielders: Joe Crede, Paul Konerko, Juan Uribe, Willie Harris, Ross Gload, Pablo Ozuna, Tadahito Iguchi
Catchers: A.J. Pierzynski, Chris Widger
DL: Frank Thomas, Felix Diaz

There was one big surprise, and that was Sox GM Kenny Williams' decision to send catcher Ben Davis to Charlotte after inking him to a $1 million, 1-year deal a day after non-tendering him at the arbitration deadline. Instead, non-roster invitee Chris Widger gets the backup job over Davis and Jamie Burke.

Widger spent last season playing in an indy league, hitting .267/.336/.576 against competition similar to what he'd see in AA ball. In his last ML season with more than 200 at-bats, back in 1999 with the Mariners, he hit .238/.311/.441. Widger also hit .235/.279/.324 for the Cardinals in 102 at-bats in 2003.

We all know the story with Davis. He hit an anemic .231/.276/.400 after coming over from Seattle last year to finish at .202/.307/.366. Davis now has a career line of .237/.306/.366 in 1,516 Major League at-bats, compared to .242/.299/.402 for Widger. With the extra power and the advantage of right-handedness on a bench full of lefty-swingers, the decision to keep Widger over Davis is pretty defensible.

At first glance, it lookes like the Sox blew a million bucks. It would be easy to criticize Williams for signing Davis to a contract in the first place, but I'll defend it for three reasons:

1) At the time, the Sox were looking at Davis as their starting catcher. It just happened that A.J. Pierzynski fell into their laps at a bargain price. So give the Sox credit for making the upgrade despite already making a move at the position.

2) Going into his age-28 season, Davis still has upside. Granted, his potential shrinks as pages fly off the calendar, but he's hit .266/.335/.423 in the minors, and has already played in parts of seven ML seasons. He'll never be a star like some thought after a great first half in the 2001 season, but his track record indicates he could still become a useful player. With his ability to hit right-handers better than left-handers, a manager could still cover some of his weaknesses as part of a useful platoon.

3) A million bucks is small beer in the big picture of a Big League payroll. It's not like the Sox signed Mike Matheny to something like, oh... say a 3-year, $10-million deal. No matter how craptacular Davis is from now until he retires, it's not a bad contract. Not bad like the one the Giants gave Matheny. Or the Marlins gave Charles Johnson four years ago ($35 million, 5-years). Those kind of deals become albatross contracts. This one won't -- not this year or ever.

Even if Davis were the primary backup on the 25-man roster, just look at what some other backup backstops are going to make this year. The Cubs gave Henry Blanco a 2-year, $2.7 million deal. Todd Greene got $750,000 for bringing his hacktastic ways back to Colorado. The ageless Dan Wilson is getting $1.75 million for another year with the Mariners. Greg Zaun, coming off injury, is getting more than a cool million from the Blue Jays. And Mike Redmond got a 2-year deal from the Twins for $1.8 million.

So giving a backup catcher a million dollars -- when you thought he'd be a starter -- isn't way out of line for where the market was. And even though Davis won't be on the 25-man roster, lets face it, he'll be starting behind the dish at the Cell should anything happen to Pierzynski.

Davis starting the year at Charlotte is probably the best thing anyway. The Sox can decide if they really think he'll ever find his bat, and they don't have to waste more Major League at-bats to do it.

The unfortunate part of this move is that it's Burke that really deserves the backup job over Widger. Now 34-years old, Burke isn't as good as the .789 OPS he had last year in 120 at-bats with the Sox, but he does have a career on-base percentage of .343 in more than 3,000 minor-league at-bats. He bats from the right side, same as Widger. Burke is probably the superior hitter at this point.

The only reason I can see for Burke starting the year at Charlotte while Widger takes a spot on the big club is if the Sox want to have Burke work out at third base for a few months. He's played there a little in the past, but looked bad there this spring. Burke would have more value if he could at least handle some other positionsWe'll have to see how this one plays out.

In other news, it was not really a surprise to see Ozuna also beat out Wilson Valdez for the untility infielder spot. Valdez arrived in the Sox organization in last summer's Billy Koch trade with the Marlins. At Charlotte, he hit .302 with a .338 on-base percentage after hitting .319/.357 for Albuquerque. Valdez was out of options, and subequently lost on waivers to the Met, but that's no big loss. Valdez is already 27-years old and has never slugged above .400 in any of his professional stops. His on-base percentage is also heavily dependent on his batting average. Mix in his so-so defense, and he's basically Mike Caruso with a slightly better glove.

Meanwhile, Ozuna hit .307/.344/.415 for Philadelphia's AAA team. Like Valdez, he'll have to hit for a pretty good average to get on base a lot, but he brings some power in his bat (.443 slugging in 8 minor-league seasons) to help compensate for that shortcoming. Ozuna should be able to give the Sox the same thing Tony Graffanino is giving the Royals this year, but at a far lesser cost.

If Ozuna makes good, it will make two straight years the Sox have been able to dig-up a quality untility infielder. In 2003, after letting Graffanino go despite a nice line of .260/.331/.428, Williams flipped Aaron Miles, an old second base prospect with limited upside, for Juan Uribe.

Besides being able to play every infield position, Uribe hit .283/.331/.506. Even in a hitter's park, that's a great performance from a utility infielder. And this year, Uribe will slide into the full-time shorstop job. And he's only 25-years old this year.

Obviously, Ozuna doesn't have the same upside. While he was once a top prospect, he was also an Agegate participant, adding years to his birth certificate during one of his winters. Now 30-years-old, Ozuna's chances at a full-time job are about gone, barring a phenomenal year as a super-sub that isn't likely. But he can still be a nice piece off the bench.

It's nice to know that the Sox are able to find inexpensive, but talented pieces to fill out the roster. It makes modest gaffes like the Davis contract much easier to live with.

Alomar walking into history

2005-03-19T08:49:00.000-08:00

With the likelyhood that future Hall-of-Famer Roberto Alomar will announce his retirement this week, now is as good a time as any to appreciate him as a player.

Alomar probably delivered more heartache than joy to White Sox fans. He was part of the 1993 Toronto team that beat the Sox in six games in the ALCS. He was part of the Baltimore team that chased down the Sox for the Wildcard in September of 1996. And he was part of Cleveland teams that beat the Sox for AL Central titles in 1999 and 2001.

A career .300 hitter (exactally .300) with 1,134 RBIs, 474 stolen bases, 2,724 hits and 210 home runs, Alomar has a solid case for the best second baseman of his generation with only Craig Biggio entering the discussion.

The 10-time Gold Glove winner was well past his prime when he arrived in Chicago for the last half of the 2003 season, but for one night I had the opportunity to see flashes of the player Alomar was way back when.

I was at Comiskey Park on August 19, 2003, when Anaheim was in town. Alomar batted leadoff and struck out his first time up -- one of two Ks -- but he would also reach base twice. Once on an infield hit where he slid head-first into first base. The other time he reached on an error, when he again slid head-first into the bag.

Besides the good, if not overrated defense, and the spectacular hitting, his head-first slide, even if ill-advised, is one of the most exciting parts of Alomar's game. And on that hot August night, it was exciting to see an older man play like it were 10 years ago.

Watching baseball players age, for the most part, isn't fun. It certainly hasn't been fun to watch Alomar, who's skill seem to have left him so quickly. As you see a great career fade away, it reminds you of the time that slips by in your own life. It makes you think about your future, even though you don't have to worry about "life after baseball." It makes you think about your own mortality.

But on that night, Alomar defied mortality and aging patterns. Not as a Sox fan, but as a baseball fan, I was captivated by the way Alomar played the game.

There there were a million reasons it was a bad idea to bring Alomar to town in 2003, and again in 2004. But while he didn't help push the Sox to a playoff, he didn't cost them that opportunity, either.
Given that, I can't help but feel like it was a special treat to get to see him show us what it was like when he was one of the game's best. Even if it cost a marginal prospect, and even if it was only on that one night in August.

Looking back at top prospect lists

2005-03-06T11:55:00.000-08:00

I saw Jon Weisman do this over at Dodger Thoughts (on all-baseball.com), and it was so much fun, I thought I'd steal the idea and do it for the White Sox...

Baseball America just put out its top-100 prospect lists for every year going back to 1990. Here's a list of the Sox to make it, by year:

1990
15. Robin Ventura, 3b
26. Wilson Alvarez, lhp
29. Frank Thomas, 1b
78. Scott Radinsky, lhp

1991
58. Johnny Ruffin, rhp
91. Wilson Alvarez, lhp

1992
45. Roberto Hernandez, rhp
74. Johnny Ruffin, rhp
90. Mike Robertson, 1b

1993
8. Jason Bere, rhp
66. James Baldwin, rhp
80. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp
88. Larry Thomas, lhp

1994
8. James Baldwin, rhp
32. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp
77. Robert Ellis, rhp

1995
23. Scott Ruffcorn, rhp
25. James Baldwin, rhp
28. Ray Durham, 2b
75. Jimmy Hurst, of

1996
52. Chris Snopek, 3b
91. Jeff Abbott, of

1997
31. Mike Cameron, of
80. Jeff Abbott, of

1998
34. Mike Caruso, ss
43. Carlos Lee, 3b
56. Magglio Ordonez, of
80. Lorenzo Barcelo, rhp

1999
28. Carlos Lee, 3b
46. Joe Crede, 3b
77. Aaron Myette, rhp

2000
14. Kip Wells, rhp
32. Jon Garland, rhp
63. Aaron Myette, rhp
96. Joe Crede, 3b

2001
4. Jon Rauch, rhp
23. Joe Borchard, of
36. Joe Crede, 3b
44. Matt Ginter, rhp
61. Dan Wright, rhp

2002
12. Joe Borchard, of
23. Jon Rauch, rhp
32. Corwin Malone, lhp
94. Joe Crede, 3b

2003
28. Joe Borchard, of
73. Kris Honel, rhp
92. Jon Rauch, rhp

2004
25. Jeremy Reed of
55. Kris Honel rhp

2005
37. Brian Anderson, of
42. Ryan Sweeney, of
49. Brandon McCarthy, rhp
95. Josh Fields, 3b
96. Tadahito Iguchi, 2b

Studs: Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Magglio Ordonez
Thomas should be an obvious Hall-of-Famer, and as I've written before, Ventura should get more consideration than he will. Ordonez has had a very nice career, which helped him land a very nice contract earlier this year. Only Thomas is an elite hitter.

Pretty Useful: Carlos Lee, Ray Durham, Wilson Alvarez, Mike Cameron, Roberto Hernandez
Alvarez was the No. 3 starter on a division-winning team, and the ace of the staff in 1997 when he was dumped in the White Flag Trade. Hernandez, also sent packing in that deal, saved 161 games for the Sox. It wasn't always pretty, but he generally threw well while in a Sox uniform. That the Sox got future uber-closer Keith Foulke in the trade is another bonus. Both Alvarez and Hernandez are still relieving in the majors.

Durham was always under-appreciated in his time with the Sox. With an OBP around .350-360, and a slugging percentage around .450 most years, with some good defense at second base, he should have brought more in return when he was traded in 2002 (to Oakland for Jon Adkins). Still with the Giants, still setting the table when healthy, Durham might not be good enough to get into the Hall of Very Good, but he's still a nice player.

Cameron has set the standard for defense in center field, and it became very noticable once he replaced Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle's outfield. Never a high batting average (.240 for his career), Cameron still gets on base (.340 career OBP) and has some power (at least 19 HR and 26 doubles the past 6 seasons).

Lee's a good hitter, but won't be missed too much now that he's been traded to the Brewers.

Somewhat Useful: James Baldwin, Scott Radinsky, Jason Bere. Kip Wells, Jon Garland
Baldwin had two good years for the Sox. His rookie campaign in 1996 when he went 11-6 with a 4.42 ERA in 169 innings, and then in 2000, when he went 14-7 with a 4.65 ERA for the division winners. Every other year he was a below-average inning eater. Even when he went 13-6 in 1998, he still had an ERA of 5.32, but was lucky and had a decent offense behind him. A fifth starter or a guy that can soak up innings is useful, so it's not his fault the Sox, or BA at one point, expected him to be a top-of-the-rotation guy.

Garland is another inning-eater. He's hurled close to 200 each of the last three years, and has been exactally league-average in each of those years. He broke in when he was only 20-years-old, so expectations have always run ahead of his production. So far he's just like James Baldwin, but with three major differences: 1) His best seasons haven't been as good, 2) His worst seasons haven't been as bad and 3) He broke into the majors much earlier, so as a 25-year-old this season, he could still lay claim to a much better career.

Wells lost his job to Garland in the rotation back in 2000, though neither acquitted himself well that year. The Sox traded him to the Pirates in the ill-advised Todd Ritchie deal, and he was one of the better starters in the National League before hitting a bump last year. It's too bad none of his success has been in a Sox uniform.

Radinsky was lights-out in 1991 and '92. He had ERAs of 2.02 and 2.73, and would have racked up more than 23 saves if it hadn't been for Hernandez and Bobby Thigpen. He was besieged by injuries, but would be a good reliver again for the Dodgers from 1996-98 as a 28-year-old. After 30 more innings he was done, but he was a good lefty out of the pen for a number of years. His last game was Oct. 5, 2001 with the Indians. Like Jack McDowell, he's a rock-and-roller.

Bere was great down the stretch for the Sox in 1993, but ...

Casualties: Bere, Lorenzo Barcelo, Jon Rauch, Dan Wright
Bere was tremendous down the stretch for the 1993 AL West champs. He went 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He followed that with a 12-2 record and a 3.81 ERA. But trying to pitch through the pain of a torn elbow in 1995, Bere had a 7.19 ERA in 137 innings. The Sox tried to nurse him back to healthy, but would only get about 120 innings of sub-par ball from him over the next three seasons.

His best campaign since demanding his release from the Sox in 1998 was his 2001 season with the Cubs, when he went 11-11 with a 4.31 ERA. He rehabbed with the Indians last year, and will try to catch on again this year. He'll be 33-years old this May.

Rauch came up in 2002 and threw 27 2/3 innings, but blew out his shoulder. He hasn't been the same since, though his stuff was never overpowering to begin with. He basically relied on his freak-show-style height (he's been listed as tall as 6-foot-11) to keep hitters from picking up on his delivery. No dice anymore. He was dealt to Montreal last year, and might emerge this spring at the back end of their rotation.

Barcelo did have tremendous stuff before he tore his labium, but hasn't recovered from the loss of velocity. His best showing in the majors was 2000 when he went 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 39 innings, 22 games and one start. He came from the Giants in the White Flag trade, and he's back there now trying to catch a break.

Wright won 14 games in 2002, despite being below-average in his 196.3 innings. Just more than 100 innings later, he had blown out his elbow AND his shoulder. He had surgery on the elbow last summer, but was released by the Sox this winter. Sounds like the end of the line for Wright.

Flameouts: Mike Caruso, Joe Crede, Aaron Myette, Joe Borchard, Corwin Malone, Scott Ruffcorn + Casualties
In the span of a year and a half, Caruso went from being an A-ball player that was the key prospect in the White Flag trade, to third place in the Rookie of the Year balloting in 1998. Just 20-years-old when he made his debut, Caruso batted .308 with six triples, 22 doubles and 22 stolen bases.

But it was too much too soon for Caruso, who had never developed much plate discipline or defensive prowess in the minors. Despite more free passes in his sophomore season, he only walked to first base 20 times. His batting average slid all the way to .250 as he commited 24 errors in the field, raising his two-year total to 59 boots. His range afield slid as well.

Before the 2000 season, the Sox picked up Jose Valentin, to whom Caruso would lose his job. Only 23-years old at the end of that season, he was released by the Sox that next winter. Caruso has been in several organizations, but has only resurfaced in the big leagues for 20 at-bats with the Royals in 2002. He'll only be 28 this spring, so if he's still playing, someone might give him a shot. It's unlikely he'll do anything with it. Unless he gets in again, his last game was Aug. 9 2002.

In the early 90s, when it seemed like the Sox were churning out one good pitcher a year from their minor leagues, Ruffcorn seemed like the heir to the legacy of Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Alvarez and pre-blowout Bere. Never able to command the strike zone, he instead became the next to follow in the footsteps of Rodney Bolton.

Ruffcorn walked a batter an inning over his career, which consisted of 70 1/3 innings. While also giving up 86 hits, he had a career ERA of more than 8.50. His most sucessful season, if it can be termed a success, was the 39 2/3 innings he tossed for Philadelphia in 1997, during which he posted a career-best 7.71 ERA while striking out 33 and walking 37. He was 27-years old when he tossed his last game on Aug. 17 of that year.

Back when Myette was coming up with the Sox, the local sports writers wondered if Myette would be able to continue wearing his trademark eye black once he reached the big leagues. Now clinging to his baseball job, that's the least of anyone's concern. He did get in five times for Cincinnati last season, but his ML ERA is still 8.16, which his 4 1/3 inning in 2004 did not lower. Myette will only be 27 this season, so he could still make a career of it as a reliever. But even that might be asking a lot at this point.

Borchard, after getting the biggest amatuer signing bonus in Sox history, still can't make contact. His serviceable numbers at AAA haven't translated at all to the ML level in almost 300 at-bats, in which he's been struck out 89 times.

Fair or not, he'll always be compared to Jeremy Reed because it was Reed that was dealt for Freddy Garcia last year. They're two different players, and maybe Sox GM Kenny Williams is right when he believes Borchard has more upside. After all, Reed will never hit for power. And if Borchard could gain a little plate discipline, he'd be a monster.

It's not working out that way. And even if you give Borchard extra-credit for not being a full-time baseball player until 2000, you still have to face the fact that he's 26-years-old and running out of time to be any kind of a big-league player.

Malone was balleyhooed as starter after he put together a nice season in 2001. A reliever before, a starter's workload didn't agree with him. He hasn't ever been the same since that great year, and will be lucky to carve out any kind of a career.

Why is Crede here? Because after four years of being ranked on BA's list, he's turned into a good-glove, absolutely no-hit third baseman. After a wait that seemed like an eternity, Sox fans expected more. Crede turns 27 next month, and with Josh Fields coming up behind him, this might be his last chance to produce. He'll have to if the Sox are going to contend in 2005.

At Least You Said Hello: Jeff Abbott, Chris Snopek
Snopek got a chance at third base in 1997 after Ventura suffered a gruesome leg injury in spring training. He flopped, pretty badly, hitting ..218 with an OPS of .582 in almost 300 at-bats. After spending the next season splitting time with Sox both White and Red, as a utility infielder, he's bounced around the minors. Snopek's last ML game was Sept. 27, 1998. He's currently 34-years-old.

Abbott popped a dozen home runs for the Sox in only 244 at-bats back in 1998. He batted .279, but because of only nine walks, reached base at an anemic .298 clip. Traded to the Marlins for Julio Ramirez (who, incidentally, was ranked right behind Magglio Ordonez in BA's 1998 prospect list), Abbott was last seen getting locked in a bathroom during a game in which he was supposed to be playing for a Brewers minor league affiliate. His last ML game was Sept. 29, 2001. Abbott will be 33-years-old in August of this year.

Where Are They Now?: Larry Thomas, Mike Robertson, Jimmy Hurst, Johnny Ruffin, Matt Ginter, Robert Ellis
Ginter is with the Mets, and while he might be a serviceable reliver, it hardly merits inclusion any higher in our little hierarchy.

Robertson poked his head out in the majors in 1996 for the Sox, when he got seven at-bats in six games. He collected eight hits in 58 ML at-bats over three seasons with Chicago, Philadelphia and Arizona. His last game was for the Diamondbacks on June 26, 1998.

The second-best Thomas in a Sox uniform during the 90s, Larry came up for 13 2/3 innings in 1995. He had a nice season in 1996 as a left-handed specialist, posting a 3.23 ERA in 30 2/3 innings spread across 57 appearances. He tossed fewer than four ML innings after that, and his last game was May 25, 1997, when he was 27-years-old.

Hurst appeared in 13 games for 1997 Tigers, a team that won 79 games, thus making it possibly one of the most respectable teams Detroit has fielded since the last time the franchise finished over .500 (1993). That was it for Hurst, who turned 33 last week. Happy birthday, Jimmy.

Ruffin became a footnote to the Sox' great 1993 season when he was dealt to Cincinnati as part of the Tim Belcher trade. A 21-year-old reliever at the time, Ruffin went 2-1 with a pair of saves and a 3.58 ERA in 37 innings the rest of that season. He followed that with a great season in 1994, when he had a 3.04 ERA and went 7-2 in 70 innings over 51 appearances.

The workload in that strike-shortened season must have taken it's toll, because while he pitched well in 1995, he only tossed 13 innings (in which he punched-out 11 batters). He threw 63 innings in 1996 for the Reds, but 37 walks and 10 home runs helped push his ERA to 5.49.

Ruffin didn't turn up in the majors again until 2000 with Arizona, where he gave up nine runs -- all earned -- in nine innings. He threw less than four innings for the Marlins the next year, and his last game was Aug. 2, 2001, just six days shy of the 8-year anniversary of his ML debut. He'll turn 34 this year.

Ellis was traded to the Angels for Pat Borders on July 27, 1996, and on Sept. 12 of that year he made his ML debut. He disapeared for four seasons before resurfacing in 2001 with Arizona. Always very hittable, he's given up 138 hits in 118 ML innings, spread out over four seasons. Ellis has also walked 48. It doesn't look like he'll get to add to those totals. His last game was Aug. 16, 2003 for the pitching-desperate Rangers.

Too Soon To Tell: Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Josh Fields, Tadahito Iguchi, Kris Honel
You could argue the merits of putting a guy like Iguchi on lists like this, but predecessors in the foreign-free-agent market like Jose Contreras have made it, so we'll play by BA's rules. We'll find out about Iguchi pretty soon. This could be a make-or-break year for Honel to prove he's a real prospect. The other guys we'll probably have to wait a couple years.

Who's in center?

2005-02-27T22:28:00.000-08:00

Sure, there’s been crap about speed and defense. And there’s been crap about guys being competitive and throwing at each other because of a silly miscommunication in early inter-squad games. But there hasn’t been really a lot of notable news coming out of Sox camp. Which is fine, because no news is good news right now. Nobody’s blown out a knee or elbow, and nobody’s been caught with drugs and prostitutes.

But there is something that’s been touched on a few times by the papers, and that’s whether Scott Posednik or Aaron Rowand will play centerfield.

Who should get the nod? Here’s what the numbers say:

	’04 ZR	‘04 RF	’04 F%	’03 ZR	’03 RF	’03 F%
Rowand	.921*	2.63	.980	.960*	2.54	1.000*
Podsednik	.881	3.11*	.990*	.876	2.63*	.991

Looks pretty even to me, although I have more faith in Zone Rating, in which Rowand really wins out. Ultimate Zone Rating would really be better, but you use the tools you have, and this is what I have.

If there’s one thing to be happy about, it’s that both guys are such good defenders that there isn’t really a wrong answer.

So what is Ozzie Guillen going to do? I don’t know, and from what you can read in the papers, it doesn’t sound like he knows either.

There are two schools of thought. The first is that moving Rowand to left will help keep him injury-free because left is a less-demanding position. Ok, that makes sense since you want his bat to stay in the lineup.

But, the other school of thought is that it’s hard to move a player to a corner OF spot, and then back to center later in his career. That’s presumably why Carlos Beltran is displacing Mike Cameron in center for the Mets. Beltran inked a long-term deal. Cameron’s only there for a couple more seasons, if he isn’t traded first.

So do the Sox want to keep Rowand in center to keep his defensive skills sharp? He is the one with the long-term contract, while Posednik is likely a short-timer in a Sox uniform, bound to be traded or non-tendered in a year or two.

This is a serious question that I don’t think any prognosticator can answer with any certainty. If you stick Rowand in center, and he gets hurt… well, you should have done it the other way. If you stick him in left and he gets hurt anyway… well, you wasted his better D while he was healthy.

My gut instinct tells me – yes, you just heard a would-be sabermetrician refer to his gut intinct – it would be a good idea to move Rowand to left. Better to err on the side of caution, especially since the Sox OF/DH situation is already looking pretty thin.

Posednik could make it a moot point if he can’t get on base. We still don’t know if the 2003 version (.379 OBP) or the 2004 (.313 OBP… ugly) will show up this year. If Posednik plays himself out of the lineup, the obvious solution is to put Rowand in center and Carl Everett in left.

But I doubt that’s how the White Sox want this quandary to be solved.

Santana sticking with Twins

2005-02-16T10:13:00.000-08:00

From MLB.com ...

MINNEAPOLIS -- Twins pitcher Johan Santana didn't need flowers or chocolate for Valentine's Day. He'd rather have the security that comes with a multi-year contract.

That's what the American League's reigning Cy Young Award winner received Monday when he and Minnesota agreed to a four-year contract that avoids arbitration. Terms of the deal were not revealed by the club, but the Associated Press reported it to be worth $40 million. It is still pending until Santana passes a physical scheduled for Monday afternoon.

Santana was 20-6 with an AL-leading 2.61 ERA in 2004, which included a dominating 13-0 record and 1.21 ERA after the All-Star break. He also led the league with 265 strikeouts and was unanimously elected as winner of the AL Cy Young Award.

My analysis: OH, SHIT!

Tigers take chance on Grilli

2005-02-09T23:12:00.000-08:00

According to their website, the Tigers signed former White Sox pitcher Jason Grilli to a minor-league deal.

Grilli was the recipient of a lot of nice lip services this winter from Sox GM Kenny Williams before Williams landed Orlando Hernandez. If the Sox hadn’t signed El Duque, Grilli probably would have been the front-runner for the Sox fifth starter job.

For all the nice things the Sox organization said about him, Grilli just plain sucked last year. His ERA was 7.40 in 45 innings for the Sox last year, all coming in eight starts. If you imagine what he would have done over a whole season by stretching his stats in those 45 innings into 180 innings (4 times), he would have walked almost 100 men and given up almost 50 home runs, all while batters hit him at nearly a .300 clip.

Grilli also didn’t show much at Charlotte, posting an ERA close to 5.00 over 152 innings. Despite his early departure, he led the Knights in hits allowed, walks allow, home runs allowed, runs allowed and earned runs allowed.

The Sox must have been serious about starting him in the fifth slot since they talked him up through most of the winter, but it’s hard to see how Felix Diaz wasn’t a better option. Yes, Diaz was hammered in Chicago (6.75 ERA), but he did post a 2.97 ERA in Charlotte, and he is still just 23-years-old. Grilli turned 28 in Novermeber.

The Hernandez signing made it a moot point, so Diaz probably spends this year in the bullpen and Grilli either slides into Detroit’s staff, where Comerica Park could shave a run or two off his ERA by forgiving some of his flaws, or he spends the summer as a Toledo Mud Hen.

The Grilli experiment didn’t work out so well, but the Sox should still be applauded for trying to land some talent from a non-conventional source. Williams picked him up in last year’s Rule 5 draft, and while he didn’t have the star potential many thought he had early in his career as a Giants and Marlins prospect, he could have been useful. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flier on a guy to see if your coaches can do something with him. It didn’t work out this time, but it was worth a try.

Good luck to Grilli in Detroit.

Thoughts on Ordonez to the Tigers

2005-02-09T22:14:00.000-08:00

Magglio Ordonez finally found a taker for his services when the Detroit Tigers signed him to a 5-year, $75 million contracts earlier this week.

It’s been a long offseason for the former Sox outfielder, mainly because of unanswered questions about his injured knee, and the secretive treatment he received last summer in Austria. Ordonez’ agent, Scott Boras, originally was going to have the outfielder work out for teams at winter meetings back in December, but that fell through, leaving potential buyers to speculate even further about the status of the knee.

For a while, it looked like Ordonez would be left without a date to the big dance, especially since he and Boras insisted on arriving in a stretch limo with a fat contract in hand. Most teams, including the Cubs, Orioles and Mets, would only go for two years at around $8-10 million.

But the Tigers were also left on the sidelines for most of the winter. Although they bagged closer Troy Percival early in the hunting season, they failed to land any more big game. Carl Pavano and Matt Clement turned them down. Carlos Beltran wouldn’t return their calls. And even second- and third-tier guys showed a reticence to playing in the Motor City.

Detroit was desperate and had money to spend, so they forked over the biggest wad of cash to ever slip out of the organizations’ wallet.

So what do I think about this deal?

WORST DEAL EVER

When I say that, I don’t mean worst Tigers deal ever… of which there are many. (IE Bobby Higginson, Dean Palmer, et. Al.) I mean the worst deal in baseball… ever.

What could have been the worst deal ever was the $140-million, 8-year contract Detroit offered Juan Gonzalez back in 2000. Juan Gone didn’t want to toss his John Hancock on that piece of paper, which was a close call for the Tigers. Gonzalez was miserable in 2000, bounced back to have one of his finest seasons in 2001 with the Indians, then signed a pair of lesser deals with the Rangers and Royals, for whom he provided fewer than 800 at-bats over three years with some league-average hitting for a right fielder.

In short, considering what Detroit would have done to his numbers through both park factors and Juan’s fleeting happiness, the deal would have been an unmitigated disaster, crippling the team’s chances of contending as the contract served as an albatross on the payroll.

Apparently, since the Tigers didn’t end up taking a bath on that deal, they didn’t learn the object lesson.

Gonzalez had been a good-but-not-great hitter before then, but he was 30 by the time he reached Motown. He should have been expected to decline, especially as a free-swinger that never walked much and had most of his value tied up in being able to crank the ball.

Ordonez doesn’t fit the same player mold as Gonzalez in that Magglio has always been better at reaching base. Ordonez’ career on-base percentage is .364 and had hovered around .380 the four seasons before last year (when he was at .351 before the knee injury). Gonzalez is at a respectable .343 – nice, but not so nice for an allegedly elite hitter.

But the same could be said for Ordonez. He’s never had an OBP above .400. He’s never slugged better than .600, even in some of the homer-happy years at Comiskey Park. Gonzalez slugged better than that four times.

So here we have a case of two guys that are overvalued: Gonzalez for being a career .300 hitter (at the time) and having a rep as an RBI guy, and Ordonez for being a career .300 hitter (for now) and having a consistency that evaporated the first half of last year.

So forgetting about the knee injury for a second, has history shown it to be a good idea to throw money at an aging corner outfielder that hasn’t been an elite hitter? The answer is an emphatic NO.

I would have expected Ordonez to age better than Gonzalez, but it in now way justifies the money he got, even if he had been healthy.

And here’s the kicker: While there are protections in case the knee doesn’t hold up. If the knee injury reoccurs, Ordonez gets to keep the $6 million signing bonus and his $6 million salary for 2005, and the Tigers are off the hook.

However, it doesn’t protect the Tigers from A) ineffective play because of the knee, B) a reoccurrence of the injury after 2005, and C) injuries Ordonez might sustain compensating because of the injury.

If Ordonez just stays in the lineup, two more years can be tacked on to the deal, pushing the overall total to $105 million.

If this deal works out as well as it possibly could for the Tigers, Ordonez would repeat his 2001-04 seasons a few couple times. They’d still be paying him more than Vladimir Guerrero, but a case could be made that Detroit had to over pay to get that caliber of player into a Tigers uniform.

But how likely is Ordonez to repeat those years?

YEAR	AGE	OBP	SLG	OPS+
1999	25	.349	.510	119
2000	26	.371	.546	125
2001	27	.381	.533	135
2002	28	.382	.597	152
2003	29	.380	.546	142
2004	30	.351	.485	110

It didn’t look like Ordonez was beating the long arc of history before the knee injury last year. Even if you give him credit for being a better second-half player (which he has been the last three years), he was still on target for his worst year since his rookie campaign back in 1997.

When the Sox offered Ordonez $70 million over five years last year, I thought it was crazy. That was before a knee injury cast doubt on his future. What the Tigers have done is beyond crazy. It’s something that could hold down the organization for almost a decade.

I could see the need to overpay for a big-time free agent if the Tigers were closer to contention. But they aren’t that close, and Ordonez might not help them get any closer. Before it’s all over, he might keep them farther away.

Playing with the lineup

2005-02-03T19:21:00.000-08:00

It looks like all of the pieces of the Sox 2005 lineup are in place, so now is as good a time as any to think about the batting order. This is the likely order:

LF: Scott Posednik (L)
2B: Tadahito Iguchi (R)
1B: Konerko (R)
DH: Everret (S)
RF: Dye (R)
C: Pierzynski (L)
CF: Rowand (R)
SS: Uribe (R)
3B: Crede (R)

Manager Ozzie Guillen has gone on record as preferring Rowand to hit lower in the order so there's not as much pressure on him. Iguchi and Uribe might be flip-flopped, too, for the same reason as Iguchi becomes acclimated to baseball in the States. Frank Thomas replaces Everett once he's healthy. That's the only change, provided Everett doesn't have to fill for somebody that tanks in the outfield.

So is this the best lineup? Only if Posednik hits like he did in 2003.

That year, Scotty had a .379 on-base percentage. That was good for only 36th-best in baseball and 22nd-best in the National League. But of course, because the dominant on-base men also tend to be dominant slugging machines, only a handful of the guys in front of him were top-of-the-order hitters. Those players were Derek Jeter, Luis Castillo, Jose Vidro, Jason Kendall, Marcus Giles and Doug Mientkiewicz. None of them were full-time leadoff hitters.

But last year's version of Posednik, the one with a .313 OBP, won't get it done.

Other than that, the lineup seems OK. The lefties and righties are staggered, and there's definitely more balance on this year's squad than in years past.

I'd still do it differently. For instance, I'd bat Rowand second to take advantage of some of his doubles power. The Sox centerfielder cranked 38 in 2004, and should the leadoff man fail to get on and steal, the next-best situation (outside of a home run, that is) is for the No. 2 guy to hit his way onto second base.

It will be interesting to see how long Guillen sticks with Posednik if his OBP hovers near .300. I'm willing to bet he has more patience that I would have in his shoes. But maybe we should give the Sox scouts some credit for believing Posednik's problems last year came from him swinging for the fences.

But how should the lineup look if Posednik can't get on base? Here's my answer:

2B: Iguchi
CF: Rowand
1B: Konerko
LF: Everett
RF: Dye
C: Pierzynski
SS: Uribe
DH: Ross Gload (L)
3B: Crede

I know what everyone is thinking. "Ross #*$#&$ Gload at DH?!?!"

If the Big Hurt comes back in a reasonable time frame, it would help out. Then Everett would just replace Posednik, Thomas would hit third or fourth, and everyone would slide down a spot. Except Crede, who should hit last no matter what.

The lineup probably doesn't matter as much as people think, outside of having enough balance to keep your lineup from getting mowed down by a righty- or lefty-specialist. This year's lineup has the required balance. Now the challenge for Guillen is making sure the right bats are getting to the plate.

Iguchi replaces Harris at second base

2005-02-02T23:26:00.000-08:00

Why am I late to chime in on the Tadahito Iguchi deal? Because I don’t have anything different to say than anyone else, which is this: He could be anything from just OK to pretty good, and in any event represents an improvement over Willie Harris at second base.

I’m not going to bother with numbers for Iguchi because what he did in Japan doesn’t mean anything, because we don’t know how to translate success into performance in the Major Leagues. The projections are all over the place, depending on whose guesswork you choose to use as a reference.

What I think has been lost is how the success cycle of a team (the White Sox) is significantly altering the development of a player (Harris).

Harris posted an on-base percentage of .364 way back in 2001 when he played for Bowie in the Baltimore Orioles farm system. He also batted .305 and stole 54 bases while only getting nabbed 16 times. That’s not quite the break-even point, but still promising for a player learning to turn his speed into production.

The next year he reached base at a .345 clip and nabbed 32 bags with almost 200 fewer ABs for Charlotte before being called up to the big team, where he was 8-0 in the stolen base department.

The then-25-year-old Harris spend the 2003 season bouncing between Chicago and Charlotte. While on the farm, he stole 20 bases in 100 ABs while slapping a .380 BA with a .470 OBP. He’s not that good, obviously, but showed he had nothing left to prove at AAA.

Instead of bouncing between towns in 2004, Harris spent the season bouncing between second base and center field for the Sox. Even without the benefit of getting comfortable in a specific role, Harris still put up a decent OBP (.343) and flashed some of his trademark speed (19 SB).

Just a month ago, it looked like Harris was going to finally get the second base job on a full-time basis in 2005. Aaron Rowand was already established in center, and Sox GM Kenny Williams wasn’t going to drag back the remains of Roberto Alomar.

But then Iguchi fell into the Sox’ lap for a song: less than $5 million guaranteed. That’s a far cry from the $13 million the Mariners had to post to bid on Ichiro Suzuki’s services a few years ago, and much, much less than the $21 million the Mets gave Kaz Matsui, a player comparable to Iguchi.

While Harris has the minor-league track record to indicate he’s better than he’s show in the majors so far, he was no sure thing to play well in 2005. So the Sox, hoping to contend with a rebuilt rotation, went with the guy they thought would be more reliable and more predictable.

Harris was going to turn 27 this year, and while he wasn’t going to be any great shakes as a MLB player, he was going to have a chance to finally establish himself and maybe spend a few years as a regular before sinking into a utility role.

Now, he’s probably going to be a utility guy forever.

If the Sox were in the position of, say, the Kansas City Royals, it would be an easy call. Forget spending the $5 million and play the guy working for the league minimum. Maybe he puts together a nice season, or a few nice seasons, and you trade him or let him go before he gets expensive. Or maybe he surprises you and becomes a regular for a number of years. Isn’t that what happened with Scott Posednik in Milwaukee? The Sox better hope so, since Posednik is their new left fielder.

But for a team that wants to win, the certainty is worth the extra payroll. The certainty means more margin for error on other parts of the team, and we all know the Sox need that with Joe Crede back at third base, still trying to establish himself, and Orlando Hernandez still trying to prove that he’s healthy.

Iguchi isn’t going to be a sure thing either, but he does have every bit the upside for the 2005 season that Harris has. In fact he has more. He’s also the less likely of the two to play poorly.

The only way Harris has of getting a full-time job now is if the Sox decide to trade him. And that may not happen, because he’s still a very useful player. More useful than anything they’d get back in trade In fact, it’s a credit to Williams that he has a player every bit as good as Tony Womack in the organization working for the league minimum. The New York Yankees didn’t, so they had to go out and overpay Womack.

This isn’t Harris’ fault. He’s done what he’s been asked. This isn’t the Sox’ fault. They’re just trying to win.

But when we look back on Harris’ career five or 10 years down the road, we’ll probably see a handful of seasons with fewer than 400 ABs, some good OBPs mixed in with some bad OBPs—because that’s what irregular playing time does to a player’s bat—and hopefully a lot of steals.

What we won’t see is how quickly his window of opportunity closed.

Rowand Signs Long-Term Pact With Sox

2005-01-15T13:59:00.000-08:00

Aaron Rowand, who finished last season as the starting centerfielder for the White Sox, agreed to a 3-year, $8.5 million deal. It’s an interesting contract, but I’ll talk about that later. Right now I want to focus on Rowand.

The 27-year-old outfielder was a first-round pick by the Sox all the way back in 1998 (35^th overall). He made his debut in 2001, seeing limited action as a fourth outfielder. Rowand had a so-so year with more playing time in 2002, and missed the beginning of 2003 after an offseason dirt bike accident.

After returning from a broken shoulder, the Sox traded for Carl Everett to patrol center in the second half of 2003, so Rowand didn’t get to play full time until 2004. He responded by knocking 24 home runs and 38 doubles while getting on base at a .361 clip.

Rowand doesn’t have great plate discipline, so he’ll probably regress a little bit at the plate. Of course, he’s never been bad at getting on base, and just now turning 27 could be ready to establish a higher peak.

Defensively, Rowand is terribly underrated. He’s posted very good range factor and zone rating numbers every year, and his Rambo-like play is well suited towards center in that he gets to a lot of balls, and he’s less likely to hurt himself.

It’s easy to see how he fits into the Sox’ short-term and long-term plans. A plus defender that can handle the bat: that’s the kind of production you’d like from every position. Even if he gets displaced by one of the outfielders coming up through the system, he could always slide over to a corner spot. If he doesn’t continue to hit enough to play there, he could become a superior fourth outfielder. Or another team’s centerfielder.

The money isn’t a lot, which is a little surprising given that Rowand had a pretty big season, batting .310 and slugging .544. But Rowand does have a history of getting hurt, so it’s a good way for him to hedge his bets by getting some guaranteed money.

Over the last 14 seasons, only four different players have led the Sox in OPS. They’ve been Frank Thomas (10 times), Magglio Ordonez (twice), Albert Belle (once) and Aaron Rowand last year. That’s pretty good company.

Rowand isn’t in the same class as Thomas and company, but he’s still a damn good player. And he’s a fun player to watch. Congratulations to him for getting a nice payday, and congratulations to the Sox for locking up a good player on the cheap.

Funny Thing About Left-Handed Sox Hurlers

2005-01-14T13:35:00.000-08:00

Just a funny thought that occurred to me. Six of the last seven seasons, and nine of the last 15, the Sox have been led in ERA by a left-handed pitcher.

Year	ERA Leader
2004	Mark Buehrle
2003	Esteban Loaiza
2002	Mark Buehrle
2001	Mark Buehrle
2000	Mike Sirotka
1999	Mike Sirotka
1998	Mike Sirotka
1997	James Baldwin
1996	Alex Fernandez
1995	Alex Fernandez
1994	Wilson Alvarez
1993	Wilson Alvarez
1992	Jack McDowell
1991	Jack McDowell
1990	Greg Hibbard

Like I said, just a funny thought. The only team I can think of that has been more left-dominated at the top of the rotation in recent history is Anaheim, which up until this past season, when Kelvim Escobar led the team with a 3.93 ERA, had gone 15 straight seasons with a lefty leading the way.

Of course, nine of those seasons came from Chuck Finley. Jim Abbot (2), Jared Washburn (3) and Scott Schoeneweis (in 2000!) were the others.

Interesting bit of trivia that two of those guys also threw for the Sox.

Re-Evaluating the Lee Trade

2005-01-13T13:16:00.000-08:00

The White Sox got Travis Hinton from the Brewers earlier this week to finish the Carlos Lee trade. In total, the Sox picked up Scott Posednik, Jose Viscaino and Hinton for Lee. No cash involved.

Hinton, despite the great numbers last year in the California League (.302 BA, 22 HR, 36 2B, 88 RBI in 136 games), is still 24 years old. He’s good organizational filler, and could even show his face around the big club in a few years, but he’s too old to be a real prospect. Four professional seasons and he has yet to hit above A ball.

But lets look at the ledger sheet for the Lee trade. The Sox saved about $7 million, and actually went out and spent it on players. Here’s how it breaks down: The Sox gave up Carlos Lee, and in return and with the savings received Scott Posednik, Jose Viscaino, Orlando Hernandez, Travis Hinton and A.J. Pierzynski.

The Sox are also still in the running for Japanese second baseman Tadahito Iguchi. The latest reports show them about $600,000 apart on a contract. That is a bridgeable gap.

So if the Sox land Iguchi, they’ll have filled holes in the rotation (Hernandez), behind the plate (Pierzynski), in the bullpen (Viscaino) and at second base. And if Posednik craters and leaves a hole in left field, the Sox have other options already within the organization in Joe Borchard, Carl Everett and Ross Gload.

Even if Posednik tanks, and none of the other options work out, it will still be easier to find a left fielder at the trade deadline than most of the other positions that Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to fill.

That’s not bad a bad haul for a player like Carlos Lee, who played well, but was probably overpaid at $8 million per year.

Around the AL Central: Recapping Winter Moves

2005-01-11T06:36:00.000-08:00

Here’s a look at some of the things going on around the AL Central. It’s been pretty quite, so here’s just a quick recap.

Cleveland adds a much-needed pitcher

The Indians completed a 1-year deal with Kevin Millwood. If the 30-year-old pitcher stays healthy all year, he will make a cool $7 million with maybe another million in incentives. If he hurts his elbow or shoulder, he’ll only get $3 million.

There’s upside here for the Indians, but probably not a lot… especially for the money. Here’s a look at what Millwood has done the last few years:

YEAR	ERA	ERA+	WHIP
2002	3.24	127	1.16
2003	4.01	103	1.25
2004	4.85	90	1.46

How much of the drop-off is due to injuries is the question for the Indians. Millwood’s strikeout rates are still good, so a rebound isn’t out of the question, health permitting. But I think a return to 2002 form is out of the question.

Lets say Millwood pitches like he did in 2003. How much does that help the Indians? Here’s what the Tribe rotation did last year:

Starting Pitcher	ERA	ERA+
Jake Westbrook	3.38	134
C.C. Sabathia	4.12	110
Cliff Lee	5.43	84
Scott Elarton	4.53	79
Jason Davis	5.51	82

Millwood won’t have to do much to be in improvement on the crap the Indians ran out there last year. Don’t forget, too, that Cleveland also gave starts go guys like Chad Durbin (6.25 ERA in 8 starts) and Jeff D’Amico (7.63 in 7 starts). They’ve basically gotten the same production the White Sox have gotten from the fifth-starter spot, but from the last two rotation slots. (The last 3 slots if you consider Cliff Lee’s second-half implosion after a very good first half).

Twins will try revamped infield

The Twins let Corey Koskie sign with the Blue Jays for $17 million over three years, while bringing in Juan Castro for $2.05 million over two years. Cristian Guzman also went to the Washington Nationals (4-years, $16 million).

Guzman was bad. Real bad. A horrible .693 OPS bad in 2004. And that mark beat his career average by eight points. And while Guzman is entering his Age 27 season, he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate his one magical season (2001, when he had an .814 OPS) even once more without better plate discipline (only 30 walks in almost 600 ABs last season).

The Twins have a good in-house replacement waiting in the wings in prospect Jason Bartlett. While Bartlett is too old to have a tremendous upside (he’s 25 right now), his worst probably can’t be much worse than Guzman has been giving the Twins most of his career.

Koskie (.836 career OPS and .837 last season) will likely be replaced at third base by Mike Cuddyer (.779 OPS in 2004). That’s not too big of a drop-off for the Twins considering Cuddyer could hit a little better with more playing time. Cuddyer is also going into his Age-26 season, so still has room for a bit of improvement.

What hurts the Twins worse is that Cuddyer won’t be able to take over the second base job. Right now it looks like Minnesota will run out guys like Luis Rivas (.715 OPS in ’04), Nick Punto (.658) and Augie Ojeda (.598 lifetime OPS).

In other words, while Sox fans continue to bitch about Willie Harris, Twins fans continue to pray for a guy like Willie Harris.

Tigers sit on their paws

The Tigers haven’t done anything since signing Trevor Hoffman to a 2-year, $12 million contract. They overpaid, but apparently felt they had to do something because of incumbent closer Ugeth Urbina’s situation (his mother was kidnapped in Venezuela, and has yet to be recovered).

It’s more of a trade off than an addition, and the Tigers have yet to address their biggest sore spot: the rotation.

We won’t break out a table for this one. Last year no Detroit starter had an ERA lower than Mike Maroth’s 4.31 mark. Maroth (yes, the last 20-game-loser) was also the only Tiger starter to toss more than 200 innings.

Keep in mind that the Tigers play in one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball.

Detroit seems committed to nominal ace Jason Johnson, and youngsters Jason Bonderman and Maroth (though Maroth will be 27, so isn’t that young anymore). That leaves to spots that could be upgraded.

The Tigers will have to sift through the bargain bin if they want to upgrade those last two spots. That might not be a bad idea, given the crazy money that went to a bunch of non-elite starters this winter. And Detroit could find good value by picking up a guy with some jacktastic tendencies (Esteban Loaiza, Hideo Nomo) and plugging them into spacious Comerica Park. Even if it doesn’t work out, a half-season of a 3.79 ERA from a guy like that could be worth a prospect at the trading deadline.

That’s really the mode the Tigers should be in… thinking a few years down the road instead of next season.

Royals make moves, but still suck

Deciding they didn’t need TWO crappy, soft-tossing lefties in Darrell May and Brian Anderson, the Royals sent one to the Padres for Terrence Long and Dennis Tankersley.

Long isn’t very good, but if platooned properly, would be a vast improvement on the non-production the Royals got from the cast of clowns they ran out to the corner outfield spots last year.

Lima will be a modest improvement, but KC fans expecting him to replicate his great six weeks from 2003 – and yes, there are Royals fans that expect that – will be bitterly disappointed. Tankersley could turn into something useful like a solid middle reliever, but that’s just playing around at the fringes. Those things won’t help this team avoid another 90-loss season.

Nothing to lose with Pierzynski signing

2005-01-07T13:40:00.000-08:00

The Sox had two very visible holes left to fill, and recently filled the bigger of the two by inking A.J. Pierzynski to a 1-year, $2.25 million contract.

Pierzynski made $3.5 million last year for the Giants and hit .272 with a .319 OBP and a .410 slugging percentage. All three of those marks were the worst the now 28-year-old catcher has had in the past five years, the last four as a full-time player.

With a career line of .294/.336/.438 in 1,899 at-bats, the former Twin is an obvious upgrade on incumbent Ben Davis (.237/.257/.347 in 1,512 ABs) and Jamie Burke (.331/.379/.398 in 133 ABs).

It’s hard to say why Pierzynski didn’t get more play once he hit the free agent market, but most are chalking it up to character issues. Supposedly, he was disinterested in playing defense or studying film (other than Twins games on TV) during his season by the Bay.

Will that hurt the Sox? Well, probably not as much as playing with a big gaping hole in the lineup would.

Moreover, the Sox got a catcher for relatively cheap. This contract pales in comparison to the 4 years and $40 million dollars the Red Sox gave Jason Varitek. Varitek comes with a better defensive reputation, as well as high marks for leadership, etc. He’s also comes without A.J.’s baggage. But he’s also going to be 33 next year.

The Sox will get Pierzynski’s age-28 season to see if he really is a problem child. The upside is he hits like he did from 2001-03 – which is to say very well. The downside is he plays like he did last year, which is still better than the guys we have, and is a malcontent. In which case, the Sox can trade him or release him, and will still have the same catching situation as they did before signing him.

Very good gamble by GM Kenny Williams.

Sox need to manage Hernandez carefully

2005-01-07T11:25:00.000-08:00

Even though it happened weeks ago, lets take a minute to talk about the Sox signing Orlando Hernandez to a 2-year, $8 million contract.

Statheads and baseball laypersons alike greeted this deal with a collective groan. At first glance, it’s easy to see why. Hernandez tossed fewer than 85 innings last year, and the year before missed the entire season because of a shoulder injury.

Hernandez’ best season was his first in MLB, the 1998 season in which he had an ERA of 3.13 in 141 innings with close to a strikeout per inning.

While never quite getting back to that peak, Hernandez had good seasons in 1999 and 2000, during which he averaged 200 innings. He also threw very well before his shoulder problem (3.64 ERA in 2002) and after (last season).

El Duque has been written off by many as being too old (38, at last best guess for this Cuban defector) and too injury-prone to make significant contributions to a contending team. After all, despite what he did for the Yankees over 84.7 innings last year, he still came up with a tired shoulder down the stretch and in the playoffs.

With Hernandez, the upside is clear, but so is the risk involved with counting on him to be a key member of your team’s rotation. If everything goes right, he can give you about 150 innings of No. 2 starter-quality innings. If everything goes wrong, he feels stiffness in his shoulder and watches the next two seasons from home while collecting a paycheck that a team probably can’t ensure.

The Sox are gambling that it will be the former.

Before deciding if this is a good risk or not, lets look at another big factor – the market for players and how its driven salaries.

The Mets kicked off the craze when they inked Kris Benson to a 3-year, $22.5 million contract early in the offseason. Since then, everyone has been onboard with handing out crazy money. Here is a look at the average salaries of the big free agent pitchers signed so far…

Pitcher	2004 ERA+	Career ERA+	2004 IP	Avg. Sal
Hernandez	136	116	84.7	$4 million
Odalis Perez	127	102	196.3	$8 million
Jaret Wright	131	91	186.3	$7 million
Matt Clement	123	98	181	$8.5 million
Carl Pavano	137	100	222.3	$10 million
Kris Benson	97	103	200.3	$7.5 million
K Millwood	90	111	141	$7 million*
P Martinez	125	167	217	$13.3 million
Russ Ortiz	104	103	204.7	$8.25 million

*Reported amount of contract offered by Cleveland

That’s a lot of dough flying around, for nobody that’s really a marquee pitcher, outside of Pedro Martinez. And even he got roughed up a little last year, with a 3.90 ERA. That’s still great, but that’s not the dominance Martinez has demonstrated over the last eight years. That’s trouble, especially considering he comes with his own shoulder concerns.

On the list, nobody else other than Kevin Millwood has come even close to putting up the career numbers that Hernandez has. Only Carl Pavano pitched as well last year, though in all fairness, he was more than twice as valuable because he was healthy all year. But it was also his only superb season.

You could argue that Clement and Benson have upside and both could improve. But both have already had their 30^th birthday, so it might be too optimistic to assume they’ll stop walking guys. Millwood collapsed after the All-Star Break of 2003. Wright has big-time health concerns, and worries that he was a Leo Mazzone creation. And Russ Ortiz must have gotten the entire management staff of the Diamondbacks drunk to land that deal for four years (investment in an open bar paid off big time).

Odalis Perez is probably the best long-term solution, having stayed healthy while consistently pitching well. But he won’t exactly be a bargain at that salary over three years.

Many predicted during the season that most of these guys would get contracts for around $5 million per, and there would be a lot of bargains available. That didn’t happen.

So before we decide that the Sox are throwing money away by signing Hernandez, let’s remember that this hasn’t been a year of bargains.

So, will Hernandez help the Sox? That depends on his healthy.

One school of thought is that Hernandez proved he can’t stay healthy when his shoulder gave out down the stretch last year. Another school of though is that he was simply fatigued after carrying the load for the Yankees’ rotation after not pitching in more than a year.

It’s probably a bit of both.

For this to be successful, the Sox will have to avoid the temptation of moving him up in the rotation. Hernandez will have to be babied, meaning he needs to be in the fifth slot of the rotation.

That’s not a bad thing. Garcia, Buehrle, Contreras and Garland can all handle workloads of about 200 innings. The Pale Hose should be concerned with getting about 120 healthy innings from Hernandez. That would represent an unspeakably huge upgrade from the trash the Sox sent out in the fifth spot last year.

Will the Sox, or more specifically manager Ozzie Guillen do things that way? I don’t know. He hasn’t shown a tendency to overwork his starters. In fact, he admitted that it was his bullpen he overworked last season (specifically Neal Cotts and Jon Adkins).

Time will tell this season. And like so many teams, the Sox’ hopes rest on the managers’ ability to handle the pitching staff.

Lee To Brewers For Bag Of Balls, Other Less Useful Things

2004-12-13T16:39:00.000-08:00

CHICAGO -- (Tribune News Services) The White Sox acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik, the Sporting News 2003 National League Rookie of the Year, right-handed pitcher Luis Vizcaino and a player to be named later from the Brewers in exchange for outfielder Carlos Lee Monday.

For a leadoff man, Posednik sure can't reach base. His .313 OBP is craptastic, he's actually older than Lee and getting inconsistent right-hander with a career ERA over 4.50 doesn't begin to even this deal up to what you'd consider reasonable.

The Sox do save more than $7 million on this deal, so if they can go out and land another pitcher of the Matt Clement- or Odalis Perez-caliber, this won't be too terrible. But as is, this is a horrible deal. Even with the money saved.

Lee probably was a bit overpaid at $8 million per year, but he was terrifically consistent. He posted OPS+ marks of 119, 116 and 123 over the past three years and only in his rookie campaign did he come in below league average (and only barely with a 98). Oh, and he's still younger than the guy the Sox just traded for.

Posednik, meanwhile, was only above average in 2003 when he rode a high batting average (for him at .273) to a 112 OBP+. And despite a MLB-leading 70 stolen bases last year, he'll still have a difficult time stealing first.

Moreover, the Sox were already set in center field with Aaron Rowand coming back after leading the team in OPS. That was while playing great defense. Maybe even better than Posednik, who admittedly is good (way above-average range factors).

But with Rowand already in the fold, the Sox had an option to put a hitter just like this in the leadoff spot in Willie Harris.

Harris, who is younger still (only 26 on this Opening Day), posted a better OBP at .343. And he's also left handed -- same as Posednik.

Overall, this deal just doesn't make any sense for the Sox. They had a guy with the same leadoff abilities, a center fielder and they didn't need another right-hander for the bullpen. The only thing that they get from this is the cash savings... and where that goes, who knows?

Sox add Dye to outfield mix

2004-12-09T11:16:00.000-08:00

CHICAGO -- (ESPN NEWS SERVICES) The Chicago White Sox agreed to terms with outfielder Jermaine Dye on Thursday.

The outfielder will sign a two-year, $10.15 million contract that contains a club option for 2007. Dye will be paid $4 million in 2005 and $5 million in 2006 with the club holding an option for 2007 at $6 million (with a buyout of $1.15 million).

For the money, this isn't a bad signing. Dye's .792 OPS at Network Associates Colliseum last year with the A's makes him just better than a league-average hitter. And Dye is a slightly above-average defender in right field.

I think Richard Hidalgo would have been a more exciting signing because he has more upside and is a year younger. But for the money, this isn't a bad signing. Here's what the Sox lineup looks like now:

2B: ????????
SS: Juan Uribe
DH: Frank Thomas
1B: Paul Konerko
LF: Carlos Lee
RF: Jermaine Dye
CF: Aaron Rowand
3B: Joe Crede
C: ?????????

4th OF: Carl Everett
5th OF: Joe Borchard
UT IF: Wilson Valdez
UT: Willie Harris
Backup Catcher: Burke/Davis?

Notice something wrong with this lineup? It's all right-handed. That's a problem I think the Sox need to address. Sliding Everett into the starting lineup probably doesn't fix it. I think we'll see someone traded later this winter.

Hermanson becomes first Sox signing

2004-12-08T20:01:00.000-08:00

Dustin Hermanson became the first free agent to sign with the White Sox when he inked a 2-year, $5.5 million contract on Tuesday. The Sox also have a $3.5 million option for 2007.

Thumbs up. But, only slightly. In fact, call it one thumb up, one thumb down.

Of course, even though many are inclined to point to Hermanson’s ERA and say he’s simply the benefactor of a lot of saves, let’s take a look at his peripheral numbers in each role.

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	WHIP
As SP	4.59	6.40	3.03	1.39
As RP	4.33	9.33	3.66	1.22

Like a lot of minor league pitchers that shift roles, Hermanson’s peripherals looked a little better. Not a lot – mind you sample-size issues apply – but enough to think he’ll be a better reliever than a starter.

And he wasn’t a bad starter. Granted, he was at best a league-average starter, but he wasn’t bad. His ERA+ from his last four years as a starter have been 114, 131, 112 and 104. And even though those years are 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2003, that’s still better than anything Jaret Wright can boast – and he just signed for three years and $23 million.

Now, Hermanson isn’t going to morph into Dennis Eckersley or anything. But he will be a decent swingman, sliding from the bullpen to the fifth starter spot should the Sox fail to land another pitcher. He wouldn’t be a great fifth starter (like Esteban Loaiza two years ago), but as we’ve covered before… getting anything close to league average at that spot will be a huge improvement.

Could the Sox have manufactured a guy like this out of a minor league free agent and saved some money? Sure. They could have, but that’s always a dicey proposition. Especially for a team like the Sox that has a hard time luring free agents, major or minor.

So this hole could have been filled cheaper, or with a better player. But it’s still not a bad move.

Last Look Back: Looking Forward

2004-12-08T09:41:00.000-08:00

Here’s a last look back at 2004, which will actually look forward. These are the holes that the Sox had at the end of the season. So, in the spirit of the Christmas season, here’s a shopping list for GM Kenny Williams to take with him to the winter meetings.

Catcher

Sandy Alomar Jr. has left town, and thankfully he’s taken his .606 OPS with him. Ben Davis .676 isn’t much better, though there’s a glimmer of hope he could still be an OK player if he could get his BA up around .260 and his OPS up to about .320. Jamie Burke (.795 OPS) played well in limited action, but the Sox still need a better option going into the season.

Starting Pitcher

Must have. Must, must, must have. Even if it isn’t a big name, even if it’s someone that can just take the ball every fifth day with just-below-average performance, this is a must have. The Sox’ troubles from the fifth spot have been well documented, but it’s obvious the Sox need someone to slot in behind Garcia/Buehrle/Contreras/Garland. The Pale Hose can’t go another year giving away a game every fifth day… not in such a winnable division.

Second/Third Baseman

Sox could use a veteran in the infield. Not a short stop, but preferably someone that could play third and second base. Call it Joe Crede/Willie Harris insurance. Might as well let the kids play, but come ready with a backup plan. Placido Polanco would be perfect.

Right Field

Unless the Sox are ready to turn the job over to Joe Borchard, with his .249 OBP and .338 slugging percentage, they need another outfielder – especially if they plan on having Carl Everett patch over the hole at DH should Frank Thomas miss the first part of the season.

This could work out though if the Sox don’t trade Paul Konerko this winter. It’s conceivable, should the Big Hurt even miss any time, that Konerko shifts over to DH, Ross Gload tries to replicate his surprising .851 OPS from last season while playing better defense at first, and Everett play as a fourth outfielder, taking over should Borchard bomb out again.

We should mention that Everett would ideally be this team’s fourth outfielder. Period. He can handle center, he can hit, and he wouldn’t have to play every day in that role. Again, ideally, it would be spelling for an OF of Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand and a free agent pickup like Jermaine Dye or Richard Hidalgo.

Relief Pitcher

Shingo Takatsu, Damaso Marte and Cliff Politte are a nice trio, and with Jon Adkins and Neal Cotts back in a lefty-righty long-relief tandem, this isn’t a pressing need. Kenny Williams already landed Kevin Walker, so maybe they’ll stand pat on this front. That wouldn’t be too bad of an option.